\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 377 Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited(600377) )
Core view:
Event: on February 23, 2022, Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited(600377) released the performance express for 2021, with a total operating revenue of 12.728 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.46%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.218 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.19%; Earnings per share is RMB 0.84.
Highway tolls are the main source of revenue of the company. Affected by the toll reduction policy in 2020, the low base effect of revenue is formed. In 2021, the revenue increased by nearly 60% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 70% year-on-year. According to the performance express, the company's total revenue in 2021 was 12.728 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.46%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.218 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.19%. Among them, the toll revenue from 2021q1-q3 was 6.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54.7%; Q3 toll revenue was 2.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 4.8%.
The company's revenue in 2021 exceeded the level before the epidemic (2019), and the net profit attributable to the parent company reached the scale before the epidemic. In 2021, the total revenue increased by 26.3% over 2019 (RMB 10.078 billion), and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 0.43% over 2019 (RMB 4.2 billion).
Covid-19 epidemic has repeatedly disturbed the traffic flow and income level of the company's expressways. On the whole, the toll revenue of the company increased significantly compared with last year, but after deducting the effect of free policy, the traffic flow of existing highways showed a downward trend, and the overall revenue increased, but it was still affected by the epidemic, especially the epidemic in Nanjing from July to August. In 2022, Suzhou and other places have an occasional epidemic, which may have a certain negative impact on the traffic flow and income of 2022q1.
New expressways have been put into operation one after another, opening up incremental space. Changyi expressway, Yichang Changsha Expressway and Wufengshan bridge were put into operation recently. Since their opening, the average daily income has reached 224000 yuan, 316000 yuan and 902000 yuan respectively. Because they are still in the initial cultivation stage and the project is in the core position of Sunan road network, there is a certain growth space in the future.
The auxiliary industry maintained steady growth. 2021q1-q3 toll road, supporting business and real estate business account for 80.1%, 13.4% and 5.5% respectively. The revenue of supporting business q1-q3 was 1.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.6%. The real estate business q1-q3 achieved an income of 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.6%.
Investment suggestion: from 2021 to 2023, EPS is expected to be 0.84, 0.85 and 0.87 yuan / share respectively, corresponding to 10.75, 10.59 and 10.34 times P / e. it is rated for the first time and given the rating of "prudent recommendation".
Risk warning: the macro-economy is not as expected, covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated, toll road policy changes and other risks.
