The haze of chip shortage has dissipated, and the penetration rate of new energy has gradually increased.
From the sales volume in November 2021, countries showed different year-on-year growth. According to the existing sales volume of seven major car markets in November, we expect that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe in November 2021 will be 223500, a year-on-year increase of 34.42%. We expect that the monthly sales volume in Europe will reach 280000 in December, and the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 2.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 68%; It is expected that in the future, the number of passenger vehicles in Europe will be maintained at 15 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to rise. It is expected that 6.4 million vehicles will be built in 2025, the CAGR will reach 36% in five years, and the penetration rate of new energy will exceed 35% in 2025.
Policies lay the foundation for high growth, and automobile enterprises lead the general direction.
The backwardness of carbon emission policy is the fundamental reason for the growth of new energy vehicles in Europe. As early as October last year, we had warned before the market that if the part of road transportation is decomposed according to the 2030 climate target plan, the decline of carbon emission may be increased to 55-60% in 2030. We predict that the pure electricity penetration rate in Europe is expected to reach 35% / 65% / 100% in 2025 / 2030 / 20 Since the carbon emission target was set in Europe, following the year-on-year high-speed growth in 2020, the transition will be made in the first three quarters of 2021. Q1, Q2 and Q3 achieve the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of 14.77% / 16.87% / 20.4% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 7.27pcs/8.47pcs/12.38pcs respectively. The global new energy vehicle market is gradually forming a stable supply system of "vehicle enterprises - batteries - materials - resources".
Investment advice
Investment suggestion: in the golden age of global resonance and electrification, all links of China's lithium battery industry chain closely supporting the global electric vehicle market will continue to benefit. We recommend four main lines. 1) The battery sector benefited from the rise in prices and the rebound in profits brought about by the loosening of raw material prices. Key recommendations: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) (covered by the electronic group), Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) . 2) the supply gap in the industrial chain caused by the unexpected production and marketing: A. negative electrode: Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , beiteri, Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) ; B. diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ; C. copper foil: Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) and Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) . 3) the technical route of positive material is developed to LFP and high nickel. It is recommended that: Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) 。 4) The leading companies in all links of high prosperity are mainly recommended: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) .
Risk statement
The sales volume of new models is less than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates, the capacity expansion is less than expected, and the product development is less than expected
