We believe that the investment strategy of the chemical industry is to invest in systematic innovation and low-cost expansion. The next wave of industrial pattern of chemical industry depends on talent competition. The chemical industry has changed from a simple capital intensive industry to a talent and capital intensive industry. The latecomers can’t surpass the capital and can only stare at the latecomers. Therefore, the periodicity of the chemical industry becomes weaker. With effective incentives, excellent management and continuous innovation, excellent companies have created unshakable advantages in technology iteration, low cost and efficient service, and conquered cities and territories in the global market.
Carbon neutralization may bring disruptive changes and opportunities to the chemical industry
Carbon neutralization has a far-reaching impact on the chemical industry. According to npcpi statistics, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and basic chemical industry lead all industries in carbon emission, accounting for about 18% of the total national carbon emission, of which “process carbon emission” accounts for about 6% and “engineering carbon emission” accounts for about 12%, which is greatly affected by the 3060 carbon neutralization target. From the perspective of industry evolution, we believe that the chemical industry is expected to experience three stages in the context of carbon neutralization in the next 40 years: the first stage is to reach the peak step by step. There are many chemical products. The energy consumption and carbon emission of each product are different, and its carbon peak requirements may be different. We understand that for high energy consuming products or industries, it does not mean that there is no development, but the peak will be reached first, and low energy consuming products or industries are expected to obtain a longer growth window;
The second stage of future competition is downstream and overseas. With the carbon peak, the upstream bulk raw materials in China’s chemical industry hit the ceiling due to relatively high energy consumption, but without a large amount of new production capacity, the profit center increased significantly. The huge cash flow obtained by large chemical enterprises either invested in the downstream fine chemicals and new materials, or continued to expand the production capacity of similar products, Just transfer the new capacity to countries or regions with greater carbon capacity. In the second stage, chemical enterprises may face large-scale technological transformation of public works, and use green energy alternatives to reduce energy consumption, so as to reduce the tax costs related to carbon neutralization;
The third stage is the era of bio based materials and energy. Chemical products are closely related to people’s lives, and the demand will not disappear because of policies. However, under the goal of carbon neutralization, fossil based materials may face subversive impact locally. Bio based materials are a possible alternative / supplement. With the decrease of the cost of bio based materials, the increase of the cost of fossil based materials (the increase of carbon emission taxes) and the breakthrough of bio based materials of “non grain” raw materials, bio based materials are expected to become a new bottom material for global industry.
It is worth emphasizing that the above is the idea of industry evolution for 40 years. 3060 mainly affects the ceiling of long-term high energy consuming products or industrial development, and has little impact on the approved planning projects. In addition, a series of operable policies will evolve under the 3060 goal. With the implementation of specific policies and the breakthrough of new technologies (including synthetic biology, new energy storage technology, new nuclear power technology, new recovery technology, etc.), the three stages we understand may also be staggered.
Central economic work conference: new renewable energy and raw material energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control
The central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10. The meeting proposed to correctly understand and grasp the carbon peak and carbon neutralization. Realizing carbon peak and carbon neutralization is the internal requirement of promoting high-quality development. We should unswervingly promote it, but it is impossible to accomplish its work in one battle. We should adhere to the principles of national overall planning, giving priority to economy, two-wheel drive, smooth internal and external flow and risk prevention. The gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy. Based on the basic national conditions of coal, we should pay attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal, increase the consumption capacity of new energy, and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy. We should pay close attention to tackling key problems of green and low-carbon technology. It is necessary to conduct scientific assessment, exclude the new renewable energy and raw material energy from the total energy consumption control, create conditions to realize the transformation from “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, accelerate the formation of an incentive and restraint mechanism for reducing pollution and carbon, and prevent simple layer by layer decomposition. To ensure energy supply, large enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises, should take the lead in ensuring supply and stable prices. We should further promote the energy revolution and accelerate the construction of an energy power. Industry maintenance:
[petrochemical sector]
Pure benzene: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1.9284 million tons, an increase of 570000 tons over last week.
Toluene: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1.5461 million tons, the same as last week.
Propylene: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 4.38 million tons, the same as last week.
Butadiene: the total capacity under maintenance this week was 592000 tons, down 38000 tons from last week.
Isobutylene: there is no production capacity under maintenance this week, which is the same as last week.
Bisphenol A: the production capacity under maintenance this week is 300000 tons, an increase of 150000 tons over last week.
PX: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 8.415 million tons, the same as last week.
PTA: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 21.47 million tons, the same as last week.
Acrylic acid: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1.105 million tons, 140000 tons less than last week.
Butyl acrylate: it is under maintenance this week, with a total capacity of 1.22 million tons, 100000 tons less than last week.
Propylene oxide: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1.51 million tons, the same as last week.
[coalification plate]
Ethylene glycol: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 6.49 million tons, 48 tons less than last week.
Acetic acid: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 6.71 million tons, an increase of 400000 tons over last week.
Acetic anhydride: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 150000 tons, the same as last week.
Adipic acid: the total capacity under maintenance this week was 915000 tons, an increase of 140000 tons over last week.
DMF: the total capacity under maintenance this week was 120000 tons, the same as last week.
[polyurethane plate]
MDI: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1.42 million tons, 20000 tons less than last week.
TDI: the total capacity under maintenance this week was 2.17 million tons, the same as last week. [
Chemical fiber plate]
Polyester chip: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 100000 tons, the same as last week.
Polyester bottle chips: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 2.65 million tons, the same as last week.
Polyester staple fiber: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1.87 million tons, an increase of 70000 tons over last week.
Polyester filament: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 12.4882 million tons, 200000 tons less than last week.
Nylon slicing: there is one company under maintenance this week, one less than that of the previous week.
[pesticide and fertilizer sector]
Synthetic ammonia: there are 56 companies under maintenance this week, 3 more than last week. Multi dimensional tracking of key companies
[ Cathay Biotech Inc(688065) ]
Company information:
On December 7, the announcement on changing the implementation location and subject of some raised investment projects was issued. Cathay Biotech Inc(688065) it is proposed to change the implementation location of the raised investment project “bio Based Polyamide Engineering Technology Research Center” from “self built real estate in the reserved space of Jinxiang Cathay Biotech Inc(688065) Materials Co., Ltd. in Jining new materials Industrial Park, Jinxiang County, Shandong Province” to “purchased real estate in Pujiang International Science and Technology City, Lingang, Minhang District, Shanghai”, The implementation subject is changed from “Kasai (Jinxiang) biomaterials Co., Ltd.”, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, to “Kasai (Shanghai) Biotechnology Co., Ltd.”, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company (subject to the final industrial and commercial registration information), the total investment is changed from 208 million yuan to 442 million yuan, of which the investment amount of raised funds remains 208 million yuan, and the insufficient part of the company is solved with self raised funds.
On December 7, an announcement was issued on the use of some over raised funds to permanently supplement working capital. Cathay Biotech Inc(688065) it is proposed to use 170 million yuan of over raised funds to permanently supplement working capital for the company’s production and operation activities. The total amount of over raised funds of the company is 581 million yuan. The amount to be used for permanent replenishment of working capital this time is 170 million yuan, accounting for 29.26% of the total amount of over raised funds. The company’s accumulated use of over raised funds to permanently supplement working capital and repay bank loans in the last 12 months shall not exceed 30% of the total amount of over raised funds, which is in line with the provisions of the CSRC and Shanghai Stock Exchange on the use of raised funds of listed companies.
[ Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) ]
Industry information:
According to the State Patent Office, Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) a new patent was published this week. The invention relates to a glass powder and a preparation method thereof, a piezoelectric ceramic and a preparation method thereof, and a piezoelectric ceramic device. Price information:
The average price of titanium dioxide (rutile, China) this week was 19600 yuan / ton, down 0.41% month on month, and the historical quantile was 72%; the price difference of rutile titanium dioxide this week was 17600 yuan / ton, down 0.45% month on month, and the historical quantile was 83%. [ Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ]
Industry information:
According to Baichuan Yingfu, it continued last week. Due to force majeure, 350000 T / a MDI unit of Wanhua boside is in shutdown state. In addition, a set of 1.2 million T / a MDI unit of Ningbo Wanhua is expected to expand to 1.8 million T in the later stage, and will be stored for annual inspection around mid November, which is expected to take about 50 days; A set of 1.1 million T / a MDI unit of Yantai Wanhua (Bajiao Industrial Park) operates normally.
MDI: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1.42 million tons, 20000 tons less than last week. Due to the lifting of force majeure, the German keschuang unit operates normally with a production capacity of 420000 tons. The 400000 T / a unit of Ningbo Wanhua phase I is planned to stop production for maintenance on November 27, and the maintenance is expected to take 45 days.
According to the State Patent Office, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) this week added 17 patents: a low viscosity, high crosslinking density point epoxy curing agent and its preparation method and application; The invention relates to a liquid pure MDI composition with stable storage and a preparation method and application thereof; The invention relates to a helical substituted polyolefin and a preparation method thereof, a polycarbonate composition and a preparation method thereof; A novel photosensitive PC with notch impact resistance; The invention relates to a method for resource utilization of canthaxanthin isomeric filtration mother liquor; An aliphatic isocyanate tertiary amine modified material and its preparation method and photo stabilizing polyurethane foam; The invention relates to pyrrolidone terminated polylactic acid and a preparation method thereof, a polylactic acid composite material and a preparation method thereof; The invention relates to a preparation method of glutaric diamine; The invention relates to a hydrophilic siloxane modified polyurethane or polyurethane urea aqueous dispersion and a preparation method thereof; The invention relates to an ethylene oxychlorination catalyst and a preparation method and application thereof; A polyurethane emulsion and its preparation method; A self-cleaning water inlet screen and its application; The invention relates to a polyisocyanate composition, a preparation method and application; A recombinant Saccharomyces cerevisiae producing astaxanthin and its application; A recombinant Saccharomyces cerevisiae producing astaxanthin and its application; The invention relates to a transparent flame retardant PMMA resin and a preparation method thereof; The invention relates to a polycarbonate composite material and a preparation method thereof; Price information:
The average price of polymerized MDI (East China) this week was 18275 yuan / ton, down 2.01% month on month, and the historical quantile was 29%; the average price of pure MDI (East China) this week was 20675 yuan / ton, down 5.52% month on month, and the historical quantile was 32%; the average price of soft foam polyether (East China) this week was 14583 yuan / ton, down 3.53% month on month, and the historical quantile was 53%; hard foam polyether The average price of propylene oxide (East China) this week was 13033 yuan / ton, down 0.13% month on month, with a historical quantile of 66%; the average price of propylene oxide (East China) this week was 14500 yuan / ton, up 0.46% month on month, with a historical quantile of 60%; the average price of butyl acrylate (East China) this week was 13600 yuan / ton, down 7.36% month on month, with a historical quantile of 57%; MTBE (98%, China) this week’s average price was 5745 yuan / ton, down 1.63% month on month, with a historical quantile of 40%; PC (GM, China) this week’s average price is 22970 yuan / ton, down 2.83% month on month, with a historical quantile of 41%. The price difference of East China polymerized MDI this week is 13940 yuan / ton, down 3.03% month on month, with a historical quantile of 30%; the price difference of East China pure MDI this week is 16340 yuan / ton, down 7.20% month on month, with a historical quantile of 33%; the price difference of propylene oxide this week is 6960 yuan / ton, up 0.53% month on month Historical quantile 54%; The price difference of PC this week was 8768 yuan / ton, up 0.06% month on month, with a historical quantile of 41%; The price difference of hard foam polyether this week was 1433 yuan / ton, down 4.66% month on month, and its historical quantile was 41%.
Overseas competition
[BASF]
December 6 – BASF can now use elastollan ® Thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) provides ready to use, high-performance and sustainable high-quality synthetic leather solutions for fashion consumer goods, furniture and automobile. This solution enables calendering and extrusion lines to process elastolan ® TPU enables polyvinyl chloride (PVC) manufacturers to seamlessly and cost effectively extend the existing calendering line to produce “ready to use” elastollan ® TPU。
December 6 – elastollan ® TPU synthetic leather can be produced without solvent. Reduce volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions, effectively improve air quality, and meet strict VOC standards. Elastolan ® TPU can be recycled by mechanical and chemical methods to further promote sustainable development
December 7 – with the development of automobile electrification, the automobile industry is undergoing the largest transformation in history. As one of the largest chemical suppliers in the automotive industry, BASF will further focus on the field of battery materials and recycling, and will establish an independent entity for motor vehicle emission catalyst, automotive catalyst recycling and related precious metal services. The new entity will be named “BASF automotive catalyst and recovery”. The establishment of this independent new structure is to better respond to the upcoming changes in the internal combustion engine market and lay the foundation for future strategic choices. This new entity will continue to operate globally, with about 20 production bases and more than 4000 employees.
December 8 – BASF announced today that it will invest in the establishment of uvinul in Jinshan, Shanghai, China ® A plus production unit. The company committed itself in August last year
