\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 814 Hangzhou Jiebai Group Co.Limited(600814) )
Main points:
The superposition of consumption upgrading and backflow promotes the strong growth of high luxury consumption, and Hangzhou building enjoys dividends
In the short term, covid-19 epidemic has accelerated the return of luxury consumption; In the medium and long term, consumption upgrading has certain support for the growth of China's high luxury market Hangzhou building, a subsidiary of Hangzhou Jiebai Group Co.Limited(600814) company, is positioned as a high-end boutique department store, forming differentiated competition with traditional retail, and achieving marginal improvement from the perspective of shopping malls, commodities and customer base: 1) shopping malls: Hangzhou building will be adjusted for three years from 2019 to 2021, and the floor efficiency will be significantly improved; 2) Commodity: Hangzhou building continues to make efforts in the degree of brand agglomeration, forming an absolute head lineup. In 2021, Hangzhou building continued to introduce nearly 60 new stores; 3) Customer base: high net worth customers of Hangzhou building have high stickiness, and the number of active customers continues to grow. In 2022, Hangzhou building will build a new membership system to transform from customer service to member operation.
Jiebai ushered in adjustment and upgrading, and investment in emerging industries gradually entered the harvest period
Olai, a transformation city of Jiebai, can turn losses around with the advantages of location, brand and synergy. Located in the core of Hangzhou West Lake lakeside business district, olai, a Jiebai City, gathers more than 400 brands of new retail, new technology and new life, and focuses on the layout of new retail experience stores, which is expected to improve competitiveness and release development potential in coordination with Hangzhou building. While deeply cultivating the main retail business, in order to meet the diversified needs of customers, the company has arranged the whole process medical treatment, Yuesheng sports and baiqiu network, an online agent operator, to create a "retail + service ecosystem", increase customer stickiness and further empower the main business.
Investment advice
The epidemic has catalyzed the return of high-end consumption, and Hangzhou building has bucked the trend and become the core driving force. After the epidemic fades, under the background of continuous consumption upgrading, the company is expected to continue to improve the floor efficiency and achieve growth with a new round of adjustment and reform. The transformation and upgrading of Jiebai is expected to improve its operation. Diversified empowerment and comprehensive development are expected to play a synergistic effect. We expect that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.47, 0.58 and 0.68 yuan / share respectively, corresponding to 15, 13 and 11 times of the current share price PE respectively. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Consumption upgrading is less than expected; The impact of the epidemic has weakened, outbound tourism has been liberalized, and some return demand has flowed out again; Market competition intensifies and the business growth rate is lower than expected; Impacted by online retail, the transformation was less than expected.
