event:
On December 8-10, the central economic work conference was held in Beijing, which proposed to pay close attention to the pilot of comprehensive reform of market-oriented allocation of factors, fully implement the stock issuance registration system, and expand high-level opening to the outside world.
comment:
The central government has set a high standard and tone, and the full implementation of the stock issuance registration system has made progress or exceeded expectations. As early as March 2021, the 14th five year plan for national economic and social development of the people’s Republic of China and the outline of long-term objectives for 2035 proposed to fully implement the stock issuance registration system, deepen the reform of the new third board and improve the market-oriented bond issuance mechanism. At present, deepening the reform of the new third board has been pushed forward through the establishment of the Beijing stock exchange. The central economic work conference once again stressed the full implementation of the stock issuance registration system, and the overall reform progress is expected to accelerate.
In the short term, the full implementation of the stock issuance registration system will contribute to the revenue of system transformation. Since the exchange has not issued the detailed rules for the implementation of the comprehensive registration system, the system transformation cost of the registration system of the science and innovation board is temporarily taken as a reference. Assuming that the average price of the overall transformation of securities companies is 8 million yuan, 111 securities companies (excluding asset management companies); the average price of the transformation of asset management investment and transaction management system is 1.3 million yuan, and 137 funds (excluding asset management of securities companies), 238 insurance companies and 29 approved bank financial subsidiaries have transformation needs, it will bring at least 1.413 billion yuan of relevant transformation expenses.
In the medium and long term, the reform of the registration system is not a simple reform of the stock issuance system, but a key reform of the capital market. While reforming the issuance system, it is also necessary to reform other basic systems simultaneously, such as institutional arrangements in key links and important fields such as trading, information disclosure, refinancing, continuous supervision and delisting. Over the past two years, the pilot registration system on the science and innovation board and the gem has been generally smooth, and a broad consensus on reform has been gradually gathered. However, the reform of the registration system has only made a good start, and the institutional arrangements have not yet undergone the test of a complete market cycle and closed-loop supervision. Some systems still need to be run in and optimized; Solving the long-term accumulation of deep-seated contradictions in the capital market requires comprehensive measures and long-term achievements, which can not be achieved overnight. In the future, the CSRC is expected to promote plate reform, basic system reform and the CSRC’s own reform in a package, and open a new situation of comprehensively deepening the reform of the capital market.
The capital market reform is conducive to stabilizing the existing competition pattern of it in the capital market and benefiting the industry leading companies; And although the system transformation expenditure brought by the reform is not a pure increment, it is a rigid expenditure, which is conducive to stabilizing the impact of capital market fluctuations on the performance of IT companies. Most of the transformation brought about by the capital market reform is single source procurement, and when the capital market reform events are relatively intensive, securities companies will invest more it expenditure in the upgrading, transformation, operation and maintenance of the existing system; On the premise of limited growth of it expenditure of financial institutions, the proportion of new system expenditure will be reduced accordingly, and it will be more difficult for new entrants to challenge the market pattern.
It is suggested to pay attention to Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , the capital market it leader with high market share of the core system, Fujian Apex Software Co.Ltd(603383) , which is good at CRM system and investment bank management system, and Shenzhen Kingdom Sci-Tech.Ltd(600446) , which has high market share of the core system of brokerage business. With the improvement of the overall prosperity of the financial IT sector, it is also recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) , Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) , Beijing Infosec Technologies Co.Ltd(688201) , Northking Information Technology Co.Ltd(002987) of the bank IT sector.
Risk tips: 1) the progress of capital market reform is less than expected; 2) Macro policy risk
