\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 499 Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) )
Performance review
On February 27, the company released its annual report for 21 years, with a revenue of 6.978 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 40.72%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.193 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 46.90%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 1.084 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 34.71%. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 1.418 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54.95%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 197 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 82.30%; Deduct non net profit of 119 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.1%.
Business analysis
Q4 income has made rapid progress and achieved remarkable results in nationalization. The growth rate of 21q4 accelerated month on month, mainly due to the resumption of shipment in mid and late November after the early control of goods, the opening of the new fiscal year in December, and the preparation of goods in advance through the pre channel of the Spring Festival. 1) In terms of products, the sales volume of Dongpeng special drink in 21 years was 158300 kiloliters, with a volume increase of 43.8% and a price decrease of 1%, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of 500ml bottles. The revenue of 500ml / 250ml bottles was 5.024848 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 62.8% / + 3.3%. In the 21st year, the income of other beverages was 372 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.2%. It is estimated that the promotion data of 0 sugar in Guangdong and Guangxi are good. 2) In terms of sub regions, the revenue of Guangdong / the whole country in 21q4 was + 42% / + 56% year-on-year, and the revenue of Guangdong / East China / Central China / Guangxi / Southwest / North China in 21 years was 3.2/7.7/7.5/7.1/4.3/340 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 30% / + 79% / + 44% / + 40% / + 65% / 45%. The base market of Guangdong was stable, the growth rate of East China, southwest and North China was the first, and Zhejiang and Jiangsu performed well. In the past 21 years, it had 2312 dealers (year-on-year + 712) and 2.09 million active terminal outlets.
The cost pressure + expense investment increases, and the profit level of Q4 is under pressure. The increase in net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 mainly benefited from the changes in the fair value of private equity funds (the contribution profit in 21 years was 81 million yuan). 21q4 deduction of non net profit margin is -3.1pct year-on-year, of which: 1) gross profit margin is -2.6pct year-on-year, and the cost of raw materials such as white granulated sugar is expected to increase; 2) The sales rate is + 2pct on a year-on-year basis, or the promotion of freezers, supermarkets and other channels is increased; 3) The management rate was -1.9pct year-on-year, and the scale effect was obvious. The non net profit margin deducted in the 21st year was -0.7pct year-on-year, of which: 1) the gross profit margin was + 0.5pct year-on-year, the proportion of 500ml gold bottles with high gross profit margin increased, and the price of PET was locked in advance (the average price in the 21st year decreased by 12%); 2) The sales rate decreased slightly.
Continuous harvest share, 22 years of rich product matrix + regional expansion. Thanks to the Red Bull dispute, the sales share of Dongpeng special drink increased by 4.7pct to 31.7% in 21 years, ranking second in sales share. The target growth rate of the company's revenue in 22 years was 15%. The dynamic sales were good in January, exceeding the expected growth rate. We judge that the cost of 22 years may increase the gross profit margin or pressure, but the sales rate is expected to be amortized. New product construction + channel expansion will continue in the next 22 years: 1) 0 sugar will be gradually spread to dozens of first and second tier cities. The planned new products include light sports special drink, original Dongpeng bubble drink (modified version), 250ml new gold pot and 335ml slim pot. 2) After 22 years, the new person in charge of catering in North China will be replaced and the new person in charge of catering in East China will be improved.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is estimated that the revenue growth rate in 22-24 years will be 28% / 24% / 20%, the profit growth rate will be 27% / 27% / 23%, and the corresponding EPS will be 3.79/4.82/5.93 yuan; The corresponding PE is 45 / 35 / 29x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The nationalization is less than expected, the epidemic situation is at risk repeatedly, the cultivation process of new products is blocked, and food safety problems.
