\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Horizontal and vertical comparison: the valuation premium of Maotai is obvious
This paper attempts to analyze and interpret Maotai's "mystery of premium" from the perspective of fundamentals. Horizontal comparison: from the matching degree of growth and valuation, Maotai seems to be "overvalued". From the perspective of the matching degree of apparent performance growth, Maotai is obviously overestimated. In addition, at present, the valuation difference of maowu is close to the historical high at the end of 2018. At that time, it was even more pessimistic about the industry. From the perspective of dimensional comparison, it also shows the current market valuation premium for Maotai to a certain extent. Vertical comparison: the current valuation is equivalent to the level in 2020. Looking back from the dynamic valuation of Maotai, it is similar to that in 2020. In 2020, the industry will get out of the plight of the epidemic, the wholesale price of Maotai will rise, and the industry will enter a recovery period.
Standing at the moment: an analysis of the reasons for Maotai valuation premium
At present, the apparent performance underestimates the market value of Maotai and deviates greatly. Before 2018, in the period of high industry boom and accelerated upward product pricing, Maotai has raised prices, resulting in higher performance growth in that year. 1) if Feitian Maotai's price difference narrows to the previous round of "bull market" peak, that is, there should be a price increase of about 20% between 2019 and 2021, the dynamic valuation level will be reduced from 45 times to 38 times and return to the peg central system of the industry; 2) If the price difference of Feitian Maotai narrows to the historical average level, that is, about 50% of the price increase from 2019 to 2021, the dynamic valuation level will be reduced from 45 times to 30 times, which is significantly underestimated. Once the "marketization" advocated by Maotai is verified at the price level, the market expectation will be gradually oriented. At this time, Maotai stock price still has a large upward space.
Looking forward to the future: how to treat the "change" of Maotai
Product side: the product matrix of Maotai is improved, and the super high-end market position is enhanced. 1) Maotai is the only one with a price of more than 2000, and the growth rate is expected to remain at about 10% in the future. 2) The thousand yuan price band is the future high-volume price band. 3) The secondary high-end and below are the Red Sea market, and Maotai relies on strong brand strength to sink the market.
Channel end: increase direct selling efforts from end B to end C. The official business expenses restriction policy of 2012 appeared, the Baijiu's purchase and consumption structure changed considerably, and the proportion of private enterprises and individual consumers increased. At the same time, the new retail channels such as electricity suppliers were rising, and brand enterprises were seeking marketing transformation. From 2016 to 2021, the proportion of direct sales continued to increase, from 9% to 19% (2021q3).
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company's operating level has improved significantly, and the effective measures at the channel side and brand side have achieved remarkable market results. It is optimistic about the volume and price space of the company and maintains the original profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 52 / 608 / 70.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11% / 17% / 16%. The current share price corresponds to 43x / 37x / 32x PE from 2021 to 2023, and the target price is 2420 yuan, corresponding to 50 times PE in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the macro-economy is down, and the effect of channel reform is less than expected; The wholesale price fluctuates greatly.
