\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
The income reached the upper limit of the notice, and was optimistic about the improvement of the profitability of the leading papermaking company, maintaining the "buy" rating
The company issued a performance express. In 2021, it is expected to achieve a revenue of 31.874 billion yuan (+ 47.64%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.941 billion yuan (+ 50.56%), deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 2.922 billion yuan (+ 51.94%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.23% (an increase of 0.18 PCT). In 2021q4 alone, it is expected to achieve a revenue of 8.160 billion yuan (+ 37.14%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 172 million yuan (- 69.83%), and the revenue reaches the upper limit of the notice, which is in line with our expectations. Driven by both demand and cost, it is expected that the price rise trend of cultural paper will continue in the short term. Due to the cost advantage, the profitability of the leader is expected to improve. He is optimistic about the long-term development of the company and fine tuned the profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 2.941/29.47/3.100 billion from 2021 to 2023 (originally RMB 2.92/29.25/3.077 billion), and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 1.09/1.10/1.15, The current share price corresponding to PE is 11.2 / 11.2 / 10.6 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Achieve strategic cooperation with Nanning municipal government, deepen the layout of Nanning base and strengthen the advantages of Forest Pulp paper integration
The company announced that on February 26, the company signed the strategic cooperation framework agreement with the government of Nanning, Guangxi, and agreed to invest in the construction of a "Forest Pulp and paper integration and supporting industrial park project with an annual output of 5.25 million tons, mainly producing high-grade packaging paper, plastic substitute paper, coated paper, double offset paper, special paper-based new materials, pulp and other products" in Nanning, with a total investment of about 20 billion yuan, After completion, the total output value is about 30 billion yuan. Guangxi is rich in forestry resources, with a forest coverage rate of 62.5%, and its timber output has ranked first in China for many consecutive years. The steady progress of Nanning project is conducive to the optimization of the product structure of Guangxi base. At the same time, it also makes the three bases of Shandong, Guangxi and Laos complement and cooperate with each other, strengthens the advantage of "Forest Pulp paper integration", and is conducive to building a complete raw material supply system and realizing the transformation and upgrading of enterprises.
The rise in the price of cultural paper will restore profitability, optimize the structure of products and raw materials and build a long-term competitive advantage
Short term: from the beginning of the year to February 25, the price of double offset paper increased by 4.01%. It is expected that the price rise trend of cultural paper in the short term is expected to continue. The driving forces are: bidding for teaching auxiliary publishing in spring, reduction of imports and recovery of exports, replenishment of dealers under low channel inventory, stimulating Chinese demand. At the same time, the price of wood pulp is still in the rising cycle, supporting the rise of paper price from the cost side. At present, the price of raw materials is high, the recovery of production capacity of small factories is restrained, and the leader remains profitable due to the cost advantage. With the continuous rise in the price of cultural paper, the profitability of the leader will be gradually improved. Long term: with the continuous increase of forest land area in Laos and the release of production capacity in Beihai base, the total production capacity of paper and pulp has exceeded 10 million tons in early 2022, the integration level of Forest Pulp and paper continues to improve, and the self-sufficiency ratio of pulp is expected to continue to increase in the future, resulting in enhanced cost advantage and thickened profits.
Risk tip: the demand recovery is less than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the company's production capacity is less than expected.
