matter:
1) On December 6, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed to promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry.
2) On December 10, the central economic work conference proposed to adhere to the positioning of “housing, housing and non speculation”, strengthen expected guidance, explore a new development model, adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of indemnificatory housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
Ping An View:
Set the tone of the “virtuous circle” of real estate and continue to support reasonable housing demand: the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee mentioned the “virtuous circle” of the real estate industry for the first time in recent years, which is different from the previous statement only focusing on “promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market”, releasing a clear signal of rebuilding the confidence of the industry. “Supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers” also has clear directional guidance. The mortgage end of residents continues to be loosened. Combined with the statement of multiple departments on the Evergrande event on December 3, the first and improved houses will receive more support. Combined with the statement of promoting a virtuous circle in the industry, it is expected that the financing related to housing will be thawed gradually, and the reasonable and normal financing needs, land purchase, financing and other business behaviors of real estate enterprises are expected to gradually return to normal.
Strengthen the expected guidance, “housing without speculation” is still the bottom line: the central economic work conference put forward the concept of “expected guidance” for the first time. For example, recently, the local auction market launched measures such as reducing the starting price of land price and sales restriction price, which plays a certain guiding role in stabilizing the house price expectation. It is not ruled out that there will be new actions in the expected management in the follow-up. In addition, the central economic work conference re mentioned “no speculation in housing”. At the same time, before the statement of “promoting the virtuous cycle of the real estate industry” at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, it added the emphasis on “implementing policies due to the city”, indicating that “no speculation in housing” is still an unshakable bottom line, but it does not rule out some regional policy fine-tuning under the pressure of supply and demand.
Indemnificatory housing may be an important starting point for steady growth and encourage the exploration of new development models in the industry: both meetings emphasized “promoting the construction of indemnificatory housing”. The construction of indemnificatory housing is expected to accelerate in 2022, or play a certain supporting role in real estate investment. At the same time, “exploring a new development model” is also a new formulation of the industry in recent years. With the peak of the industry cycle, the incremental market is gradually transformed into the coexistence model of incremental stock, and the transformation of old residential areas, property management and leasing market under the stock market may become stronger; In addition, the high leverage model of “relying on the rise of house prices and land prices” in the past is gone forever. The pilot of superimposed real estate tax is accelerated, and the concepts of residents’ speculation in real estate are gradually reversed. Under the guidance of “simultaneous development of rent and purchase” and “accelerating the development of long-term rental housing market”, the development model will also face new exploration.
Investment suggestions: the two central meetings both emphasized promoting the virtuous circle of the industry and releasing the positive signal of building industry confidence. The follow-up more support and guidance policies are expected to be implemented, and the industry’s financing, sales, land purchase and other behaviors are expected to gradually return to normal. We believe that the short-term industry liquidity crisis has not been eliminated, and the policy game space is still in place. The medium and long-term leading real estate enterprises will benefit more from the warmth of the policy and stand out by virtue of their comprehensive advantages. It is suggested to pay attention to Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Vanke A, etc. Considering the broad development space and independent strengthening ability of property management and business management in the stock era, we are optimistic about country garden service, poly property, a leading property management company with outstanding comprehensive strength, and Xingsheng commerce, a commercial operator with strong asset light output strength.
Risk tips: 1) if the subsequent supply of goods is impacted due to the shortage of new soil storage, it will have a negative impact on the sales, commencement and investment of the industry; 2) If the pressure of property market deregulation exceeds expectations and sales continue to exchange price for volume, it will bring some early high price impairment risk; 3) The policy care is limited, and the adjustment range and time of the industry exceed expectations, which will have a negative impact on the development of the industry.
