\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 43 Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) )
The performance of 21 years was in line with expectations, and the rise of raw materials put pressure on short-term profits
The company issued the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.651 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.80%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 496 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 4.95%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 442 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 3.09%. The overall performance is in line with expectations. 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 389 million yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of - 8.12% and a month on month increase of - 15.68%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 89 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 52.47% and a month on month increase of - 36.78%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 71 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 44.59% and a month on month increase of - 41.08%. In the past 21 years, the price of steel, iron and other raw materials increased by about 50% and the sea freight increased by more than 50%. The profitability of the company was under pressure.
Haifeng rush loading boosted sales growth, and the market share increased to 31%.
According to Bloomberg new energy data, the global new installed capacity in 2021 was 79gw, a year-on-year increase of - 18.3%. According to the data of the national energy administration, in 2021, the newly installed capacity of wind power in China was 47.57gw, with a year-on-year increase of - 33.63%, of which the newly installed capacity of onshore wind power was 30.67gw, with a year-on-year increase of - 55.30%; The newly installed capacity of offshore wind power was 16.90gw, a year-on-year increase of + 452.29%. Affected by the expiration of Haifeng's subsidy at the end of 2021, China's Haifeng's installed capacity increased by a blowout in the whole year of 21 years.
Affected by the rush loading of sea breeze, the sales volume of main shafts and forgings of the company increased steadily. In 2021, the sales volume of the company's spindle business was 147000 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 17.74%, and the revenue was 1.508 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.05%; The sales volume of free forgings of the company was 9700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 62.78%, and the revenue was 106 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 57.49%. The company added 24.43gw of installed capacity to the main shaft, a year-on-year increase of + 26.33%, corresponding to a global market share of about 31%.
Affected by the rise of raw materials and sea freight, the gross profit margin of Wind Turbine Spindle in 21 years was 39.73%, a decrease of 5.69% compared with 20 years. The raw material supply capacity of phase I of the company's 8000 castings and forgings project was fully released in 21 years, and the proportion of direct materials decreased to 50.93% (year-on-year - 11.41%), which alleviated the cost pressure caused by the sharp rise of raw materials to a certain extent. We believe that as the prices of raw materials and sea freight stabilize, the company's profit performance will be repaired.
The company actively expanded casting capacity, and the release of capacity brought performance flexibility
In 2021, the company successfully developed the casting market, completed the sample and partial batch delivery, and reached the cooperation intention of casting shaft and conjoined bearing seat with leading manufacturers of fan in Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited(601727) , Siemens gomeisa, vision, Yunda and Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) and other industries. Q4 of the company issued an announcement on investing in the construction of a casting capacity project with an annual output of 400000 tons, of which the design capacity of phase I is 150000 tons. The construction will be started in 22 years and is expected to be put into operation in 23 years. The company has a casting capacity of 45000 tons, and the company's casting capacity will reach nearly 200000 tons in 23 years, with a corresponding installed capacity of about 10GW. We believe that with the gradual release of the company's casting capacity in the past 22 years, the company's product structure will be optimized and the certainty of income growth will be strong.
Profit forecast
The company is a global leader in wind power spindles and actively distributes casting capacity. With the stabilization of upstream raw materials and sea freight prices, the company's profitability is expected to be repaired. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 648 million yuan, 712 million yuan and 775 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 30.6%, + 9.7% and + 9.0%; The corresponding PE is 19, 17 and 16 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The expansion of casting capacity was less than expected, and the price of raw materials rose more than expected.
