Main points:
Bank shares: industry index continues to pick up
From the Shenwan industry index, the banking index rose by 2.42%, 4.31% and – 0.75% this week, this month and year to date respectively, ranking 8th, 11th and 18th among the 28 Shenwan industries.
In terms of weeks, the stock prices of Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and Xiamen Bank Co.Ltd(601187) increased by 6.12%, 4.37% and 4.34% respectively. On a monthly basis, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) and Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) share prices rose by 8.08%, 7.83% and 6.81% respectively. Since the beginning of the year, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) and Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) have increased by more than 10%.
Central bank operation and money market interest rate: Net withdrawal of money
The total amount of money put in this week was 50 billion yuan, the total amount returned was 230 billion yuan, and the net return was 180 billion yuan, a decrease of 10 billion yuan compared with last week. Since the beginning of the month, the currency has realized a net return of 350 billion yuan.
On December 10, dr007 was 2.12%, an increase of 22bps compared with last Friday. Dr001 was 1.82%, down 8bps compared with last Friday. The overnight lending rate was 1.85%, down 11bps from last Friday. The 7-day lending rate was 2.38%, up 6bps from last Friday.
Inter bank certificate of deposit issuing interest rate: 1m inter-bank certificate of deposit issuing interest rate has increased
This week, the issuing interest rate of 1m inter-bank certificate of deposit increased, the issuing interest rate of 3M inter-bank certificate of deposit decreased, and the issuing interest rate of 6m inter-bank certificate of deposit was the same as last Friday. On December 10, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit were 2.64%, 2.84% and 2.85% respectively, which were + 17bps, – 1bp and flat compared with last Friday.
China US Treasury bond yield: the term interest spread of China’s bonds narrowed and the term interest spread of US bonds widened
This week, the yield of 1y treasury bonds increased, the yield of 10Y treasury bonds decreased, and the term spread narrowed. On December 10, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds were 2.28% and 2.84% respectively, with changes of + 2bps and – 3bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.57%, down 5bps from last Friday.
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds increased, and the term interest spread expanded. On December 10, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds were 0.27% and 1.48% respectively, with changes of + 1bp and + 13bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 1.21%, up 12bps from last Friday.
U.S. liquidity indicators: the debt interest margin of non-financial enterprises decreased and the tips yield increased
(1) On December 9, the U.S. secured overnight financing interest rate was 0.05%, the same as last Friday; (2) on December 8, the interest rate of 3M AA U.S. non-financial bills was 0.14%, an increase of 2bps compared with last week; (3) on December 9, the adjusted spread of U.S. corporate bond options was 3.25%, down 31bps compared with last Friday; (4) on December 10, the U.S. inflation index treasury bonds (TIPS) yield was -0.96%, up 12 BPS compared with Friday.
Investment advice
The central economic work conference stressed that “we should guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development. Fiscal and monetary policies should be coordinated and linked, and cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined. We should implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand and enhance the endogenous driving force for development.” The policy intention of stabilizing growth and preventing risks is obvious, and it is clearly pointed out to stabilize the macro-economic market. China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) and Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) are recommended.
Risk statement
The macro economy went down more than expected.
