Central Economic Council: from "double control" of energy consumption to "double control" of total carbon emission and intensity; Carbon emission control is the direction
1) According to Xinhua news agency, the central economic work conference this week pointed out that the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and conditions will be created to realize the transformation from "double control" of energy consumption to "double control" of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible.
2) Photovoltaic industry: photovoltaic silicon materials (including industrial silicon used to produce photovoltaic silicon materials), silicon wafers, cells, modules and other injection links, as well as photovoltaic glass and other auxiliary materials, will not be included in the total energy consumption control in the future, which is expected to solve the "one size fits all" restriction of new energy related enterprises (the price of industrial silicon soared in some areas, further driving up the price of silicon material, thus restraining the demand for photovoltaic terminals). However, it will change from "dual control of energy consumption" to "dual control" of total carbon emission and intensity In the future, carbon emissions are still very important, which may face the full life cycle carbon footprint tracing of products and potential carbon border tax. New technologies such as granular silicon have a lower carbon footprint and are expected to benefit first. (granular silicon has obtained the carbon footprint certification of 37 kg carbon dioxide equivalent from the French environment and Energy Agency, which is significantly lower than the world record of 57.559 kg carbon dioxide equivalent in Wacker, Germany)
Photovoltaic industry: the supply is expected to improve, and the price of the industrial chain enters the downward channel; Promote the downstream demand of photovoltaic
1) The industry price entered the downward channel to release downstream demand: with the prices of components, battery chips, silicon chips and industrial silicon falling one after another, the price of silicon materials began to decline after nearly a month of sideways trading, with a month on week decline of about 3.4% - 3.8%.
2) Photovoltaic industry: we estimate that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China is expected to reach 416-536gw and CAGR will reach 24% - 26% in 2030; The global new installed capacity demand will reach 1246-1491gw, and the CAGR will reach 25% - 27%. The demand for photovoltaic installed capacity will grow tenfold in the next decade, with huge market space. Continue to be optimistic about the two major fields of "cost reduction and efficiency improvement" and "scientific and technological innovation": heterojunction equipment and granular silicon; Boost the development of photovoltaic industry.
Heterojunction: recently Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Huasheng and other hjt projects have been continuously promoted, and the industry CAGR will exceed 80% in the next five years
1) Photovoltaic heterojunction is very important to reduce the cost of photovoltaic kWh and promote it all over the world, so as to realize "carbon neutralization". It is the "star of the future" of photovoltaic. In the future, it will replace perc as the third generation mainstream application technology of photovoltaic cells.
2) The industry will breed a market leader of 100 billion yuan: it is expected that the market space of hjt equipment is expected to exceed 40 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will be 80% in five years. Under the assumption of 20% net interest rate and 25 times PE, the market value of hjt equipment industry is 200 billion yuan. It is expected that the industry's leading market is expected to account for more than 50%, and the market value is expected to reach 100 billion in the future. Key recommendations: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) .
Granular silicon: it will enter the stage of rapid and large-scale modular replication; Accelerate the industrialization process and help reduce the cost of photovoltaic
1) In November 2021, an additional 20000 tons of silane fluidized bed granular silicon was officially put into operation in Xuzhou. It is the first 20000 ton modular granular silicon project of GCL. In the future, Leshan, Baotou and other projects will take this project as the benchmark template. Granular silicon saves electricity by 70% and reduces carbon emission by 60% - 70%. It is easier to obtain energy consumption and carbon emission indicators than traditional silicon materials. It is expected to accelerate the promotion of photovoltaic as the main force of "carbon neutralization".
2) Demand side: Zhonghuan, Longji, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) , Jingao and Shangji have signed long order purchase contracts for granular silicon with GCL. At present, mainstream silicon wafer manufacturers such as Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , Jingao, Zhonghuan and Longji have tried granular silicon one after another, the doping proportion has been greatly increased compared with that before, and the cost of long crystal link has been reduced by nearly 20%, and the supply of granular silicon products is in short supply. In the future, granular silicon + CCZ is expected to comprehensively reduce the manufacturing cost of silicon wafer by 20% - 30%. At the same time, granular silicon is used in mass production of n-type crystal rods, the quality parameters are stable, and the metal content, carbon content, donor impurities and acceptor impurities all meet the standard of n-type materials.
3) Supply side: at present, poly GCL plans to produce 500000 tons of granular silicon in Xuzhou, Leshan and Inner Mongolia. Among them, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) and poly GCL jointly built 300000 tons, and Shangji participated in 32% of the phase I 100000 tons granular silicon project, which will strongly promote the industrialization of granular silicon. We expect Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) and poly GCL's 300000 ton granular silicon project to progress smoothly; It is estimated that China's granular silicon production capacity will reach 100000-200000 tons in 2022, and the release will be accelerated in the future. In June, poly GCL granular silicon technology application demonstration project was officially put into operation, which will accelerate the industrialization and mass production of granular silicon. It is expected that the market acceptance of granular silicon will accelerate.
Investment suggestion: vigorously promote the two major fields of photovoltaic "cost reduction and efficiency improvement" and "scientific and technological innovation" - Photovoltaic heterojunction equipment and granular silicon
1) Photovoltaic heterojunction equipment: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) (large difference in market expectation), Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) are mainly recommended.
2) Granular silicon: focus on Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) (A shares) and poly GCL energy (H shares).
Risk warning: risk of photovoltaic products or technology substitution; The downstream expansion is less than expected; The impact of the epidemic on overseas demand.
