\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
Investment suggestion: the company is one of the top eight famous wines in the industry. In history, it was once in the top three in the industry. It has profound brand heritage, high marketing and high brand potential. In 2008, the original pulp of the strategic single product year was launched, which continued to grow through iteration and relay, and the success rate of new product cultivation was high. Innovatively put forward the "three links" project to promote the sinking and deep cultivation of channels. Looking forward to the follow-up, the leading position in Anhui Province is stable. In recent years, Anhui Province has strong economic vitality. The mainstream consumer prices of gu8 card positions enjoy the dividend of consumption upgrading. The capacity of the sub high-end market in the province has been expanded one after another, and GU20 is expected to increase rapidly. The playing method outside the province is adjusted to local conditions, with the entry of secondary high-end. Under the deep brand heritage, the nationalization journey is expected to accelerate. Gujing's net interest rate is at a low level in the industry. Under the upgrading of product structure and scale effect, it is expected to promote the increase of net interest rate. We predict that the operating revenue of 21-23 years will be 12.7 billion yuan, 14.9 billion yuan and 17.6 billion yuan, giving a 22-year 9.5xps and a "buy" rating corresponding to the target price of 268 yuan.
The old eight famous wines have experienced brilliance and twists and turns. Gujing reached its peak in the late 1990s, but it was once in a period of adjustment due to diversification and the folk wine strategy of "reducing degrees and reducing prices". In 2008, the new management made a drastic reform, put forward the development strategy of "return and revitalization", launched the strategic single product of the year's raw pulp, opened the channel situation through the "three links" project, and caught the last bus of the golden decade of the industry, Fully open the road of rejuvenation. In 2019, the revenue exceeded 10 billion for the first time. Looking forward to the 14th five year plan, double 10 billion can be expected.
High success rate of new product cultivation and strong channel operation ability. Gujing has strong ability to cultivate new products. It has successively created core large products such as gift version, gu5 and gu8. The new products cultivated in advance and focused on resource promotion are mature, and the rhythm of product upgrading is leading in the province. On the marketing side, we will continue to accumulate brand potential and lay a solid foundation for brand nationalization and rejuvenation. The channel side adopts the playing method of deep distribution plus "three links" project. The salesperson's salary is in place and the channel execution is strong.
Enjoy the dividend of consumption upgrading in the province, and the market outside the province has great prospects. Anhui Province has strong economic vitality in recent years. Gujing has operated in the province for many years. It has competitive advantages in brand awareness and channel laying. It is expected to continue to enjoy the dividend of consumption upgrading in the province. The capacity of the sub high-end brand in the province has been significantly expanded. The GU20 precision card and brand operation and market cultivation have been carried out many years in advance, which is expected to carry the banner of the sub high-end brand in the province. The playing methods outside the province are adjusted to local conditions, and key markets such as Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Hubei continue to make breakthroughs. Relying on the brand tension of the old eight famous wines and the stable position of the base camp, the development of markets outside the province is expected to accelerate. Gujing's profitability is at the end of the industry. Under product upgrading + scale effect, the cost rate has marginal room for decline, and the company's profitability is expected to improve steadily.
Stock price catalyst: the sales of sub high-end products exceeded expectations, and the expansion outside the province exceeded expectations.
Risk factors: macroeconomic uncertainty risk, repeated epidemic situation and intensified competition in the province.
