Industry trend: this week, the public utilities and environmental protection index rose 0.01%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.63%. Among the environmental protection sectors, the environmental monitoring sector increased significantly, up 2.10% this week; Among the public utilities, thermal power and hydropower increased significantly, up 4.61% and 1.35% respectively
Key points of this week:
1) Utility perspective:
The central economic conference was held to steadily promote “carbon peaking and carbon neutralization”. At the central economic conference held from December 8 to 10, it was proposed to correctly understand and grasp “carbon peaking and carbon neutralization”. The gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy. On the one hand, it should improve the clean and efficient utilization of coal, on the other hand, it should increase the consumption capacity of new energy and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy. Different from the “promoting coal consumption to peak as soon as possible” proposed at last year’s meeting, under the background of high coal prices and tight power supply and demand this year, this meeting proposed “promoting the optimal combination of coal and new energy”. Coal power still occupies an important position in the power market, new energy power consumption has been paid attention to, and coal power will be transformed into new energy in the future “Huofengjing” is expected to become an effective way to promote the “optimal combination of coal and new energy”, For a long time, it is suggested to pay attention to China’s thermal power transformation new energy enterprises [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (a + H)] [China Resources Power (H)] [ Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) ] [ Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) ]. At the same time, the meeting proposed that the new renewable energy and raw material energy should not be included in the total energy consumption control, and create conditions to realize the “double control” of energy consumption to the “double control” of carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible And accelerate the formation of an incentive and restraint mechanism for reducing pollution and carbon. The “new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption are not included in the total energy consumption control” proposed at this meeting, on the one hand, further promote the support for green power and encourage downstream enterprises to reduce their own energy consumption by purchasing green power, which is expected to further release the demand for green power. On the other hand, if coal, oil and natural gas are used as raw materials for processing into other products, However, if it is not used as fuel and does not produce carbon dioxide, it can not be included in the total energy consumption, which is good for upstream industries. At the same time, if the power consumption of upstream industries of new energy is traceable renewable energy, it can also be excluded from the assessment, and it will be more reasonable to take the “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity as the assessment in the future. To promote the “replacing small with large” of wind power, old wind power enterprises take the lead in benefiting: Recently, the National Energy Administration issued the management measures for the transformation, upgrading and decommissioning of wind farms, encouraging the transformation, upgrading and decommissioning of wind farms that have been connected to the grid for more than 15 years. The measures put forward that the projects with the operation period of the wind farm less than 20 years and the cumulative power generation does not exceed the subsidized power of the whole life cycle of the project before the transformation continue to enjoy the subsidy. The annual subsidized power is 5% of the subsidized power of the whole life cycle of the project before the transformation, and the subsidized power of the on grid electricity price of the project shall be implemented according to the original project electricity price policy, The remaining electricity shall be implemented according to the electricity price policy of the year when the project is re filed. Due to the superior wind resources in the location of early wind power projects, the old fans will continue to benefit from high-quality wind resources after the transformation of “replacing small with large”, which is expected to usher in the double growth of installed capacity and utilization hours, and the operation efficiency is expected to be greatly improved. At the same time, due to the early entry of old wind power enterprises into the industry, the proportion of wind power projects put into operation in the early stage is relatively large. After the transformation, the overall installed capacity of the company will be greatly improved, bringing greater performance flexibility. It is suggested to pay attention to China’s old wind power operators [Longyuan Power (H)] [Datang new energy (H)] [ Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) ].
2) Environmental protection perspective:
Attention has been paid to water pollution prevention and control, and the water treatment sector is expected to usher in high-quality development. The national development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the “14th five year plan” for water pollution control and water and soil conservation in the Danjiangkou reservoir area and upstream to comprehensively promote pollution control, ecological protection and restoration and high-quality development, increase the improvement of water conservation capacity, comprehensive treatment of water environment and restoration of water ecosystem, and improve the level of green and low-carbon development. By 2025, the water quality of Danjiangkou reservoir will be stable and meet the water supply requirements, the evolution process of eutrophication in the water source area will be controlled, the water environment quality will be stable and good, the functions of water ecosystem will be basically restored, the water conservation capacity will be further improved, the biodiversity will be further improved, the water environment risks will be effectively controlled, and the monitoring, early warning and emergency capacity will meet the requirements for long-term safe operation of water transfer, The pattern of regional green and high-quality development has initially taken shape. Water pollution prevention and control continues to receive attention. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises of ozone generators widely used in municipal water treatment and industrial sewage treatment [ Qingdao Guolin Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(300786) ].
Market information tracking:
1) Carbon market tracking: carbon emission quota of national carbon market this week (CEA) the total trading volume is 25.527 million tons, and the weekly average price is 41.64 yuan / ton. The highest trading price is 43.19 yuan / ton, the lowest trading price is 40.40 yuan / ton, and the closing price on Friday is 42.69 yuan / ton; the total trading volume of local carbon trading markets is 76.9242 million tons, and the average trading price, the highest average trading price in Guangdong market is 47.60 yuan / ton, and the lowest trading price in Shenzhen is only 10.27 yuan / ton.
2) Natural gas price tracking: according to the data released by Zhuo Chuang information, during this cycle, the weekly average price of national LNG ex factory transaction this week was 5940.76 yuan / ton, down 1298.67 yuan / ton compared with last week, down 17.94% month on month. Affected by the high price of LNG in the early stage, industrial users often switch pipeline natural gas, so the demand for LNG in the short term is poor.
2) Coal market price tracking: according to the data released by the coal resources network, cci5500 closed at 904 yuan / ton this week. From the point of origin, Yulin 5800 kcal index closed at 942 yuan this week, down 88 yuan on a weekly basis; The Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) 5500 kcal index closed at 871 yuan, down 43 yuan on a weekly basis; Datong 5500 kcal index closed at 917 yuan, down 68 yuan on a weekly basis. Recently, the pace of power plant procurement has slowed down, waiting for prices to fall.
investment portfolio
[ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ] +[ Grandblue Environment Co.Ltd(600323) ] +[ Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) ] +[ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ] +[ Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) ] +[ Qingdao Guolin Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(300786) ]
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the price of power coal rises, the water supply of hydropower is less than expected, and the price of electricity will be reduced.
