Key investment points
Market review of transportation service sector this week
1) Shenwan level industries (28): this week, the leisure service and transportation industries increased by + 9.47% and + 2.36% respectively, ranking first and ninth respectively; the CSI 300 index increased by + 3.14%.
2) Shenwan secondary industries (102): this week, the cumulative growth of comprehensive tourism, hotels, scenic spots, airports and air transportation were + 11.4%, + 5.8%, + 3.5%, + 1.6% and – 0.1% respectively, ranking No. 1, 6, 20, 37 and 62 respectively.
Covid-19 epidemic tracking: the first domestic covid-19 specific drug was approved
1. Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: December 4-December 10, 1) China: China has reported 332 locally confirmed cases (344 last week), mainly in Inner Mongolia (Hulunbuir) and Zhejiang Province (Ningbo, Shaoxing and Hangzhou); as of 15:00 on December 10, there were 52 medium and high-risk areas in China, including 8 high-risk areas and 44 medium risk areas. 2) globally, there were about 4.28 million newly diagnosed cases of covid-19 pneumonia, a month on month increase of + 8.0%; 51457 new deaths, a month on month increase of + 1.1%. 3) the United States: About 830000 newly diagnosed cases, a month on month increase of Increase by 0.01%; There were 9210 new deaths, an increase of 3% month on month. 4) UK: about 340000 new cases were diagnosed, an increase of 10% month on month; There were 839 new deaths, an increase of 0.2% month on month.
2. Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: as of December 9, more than 2.58 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine had been reported in China; At the same time, more places should promote the third needle and strengthen needle vaccination. About 8.34 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated every day from December 3 to December 9, a month on month decrease of 3%. 2) Global: as of December 10, the world had received about 8.3 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine, and 55.5% of the world’s population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
3. China’s first covid-19 specific drug has been approved by the China food and drug administration. According to the FDA, The registration application of Tengsheng Huachuang covid-19 virus neutralizing antibody combined therapy drugs ambacizumab injection (brii-196) and romistimab injection (brii-198) was approved in an emergency. The specific drug is suitable for the treatment of adult light and common types with progression to severe type Patients with covid-19 virus infection (including hospitalization or death) with high risk factors can provide treatment and prevention. One injection can last for 9 months or even 1 year.
Airport & aviation: there is a local epidemic in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, and the travel demand is suppressed to a certain extent
1) Industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from December 6 to December 10, the daily average number of flights executed by China and international routes was about 8799, down 1.3% from last week.
2) Secretary for aviation: from December 6 to December 10, according to the data of flight standards, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, spring and autumn, Jixiang and Huaxia were 731, 1356, 1330, 285, 223 and 142 respectively, with a month on week average of – 1.5%, – 9.1%, 1.2%, – 13.8%, – 11.0% and 0.3% respectively.
3) Airport: from December 6 to December 10, according to the data of flight standards, the daily average take-off and landing sorties of Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, capital airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) were 178, 264, 270, 354 and 410 respectively, up from – 10.0%, 5.1%, 4.1%, – 23.0% and 3.2% respectively last week.
4) Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) November operation data: 28805 sorties took off and landed in November, a decrease of 30% compared with 2019 and 17% compared with October; In November, the passenger throughput was 2.86 million person times, down 54% from 2019 and 28% from October; Among them, the passenger throughput of China was 2.82 million, a decrease of 40% compared with 2019 and 28% compared with October.
5) Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) November operation data: 25200 sorties took off and landed in November, a decrease of 20% compared with 2019 and 18% compared with October; In November, the passenger throughput was 2.57 million, down 42% from 2019 and 33% from October.
Tax exemption: the passenger volume of Haikou airport this week was + 1% month on month. The tax-free sales of outlying islands in the previous November exceeded 50 billion yuan
1) Hainan flight volume tracking: from December 4 to December 10, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 332 and 394 respectively, an increase of 3% and 2% respectively compared with last week; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou Airport (expected) was 43658, an increase of 1% month on month.
2) Tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the discount intensity of direct mail and outlying island tax-free channels (China free outlying island tax-free, sea travel investment, sea development control and China export service) was basically the same month on month.
3) according to the official account of Hainan free trade port, the Islands’s tax-free shopping sales exceeded 50 billion yuan in the first 11 months of this year, and the average daily sales exceeded 150 million yuan. Among them, CTCI has achieved more than 720 investment brands this year, with a turnover of more than 2.3 billion so far, accounting for about 4.6% of the tax-free market on outlying islands; The sales volume of Haifa holdings in November was 380 million yuan.
Hotel Information Review
1) Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) 3 billion yuan will be added, which is intended to be used for hotel expansion: according to the company’s announcement, as of November 24, 2021, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) 134 million shares will be issued in this non-public offering, with an issue price of 22.33 yuan per share, and the net amount of funds actually raised is about 2.991 billion yuan. Among them, the capital stock increased by 134 million yuan and the capital reserve increased by 2.856 billion yuan. Of the funds raised this time, 2.1 billion yuan is intended to be used for hotel expansion and decoration upgrading projects, and 900 million yuan is used to repay loans from financial institutions.
2) The 2021 accommodation consumption report was released, and the total scale of national accommodation facilities decreased by 26.5% year-on-year: elong hotel technology and Tongcheng Research Institute jointly issued the 2021 report on the development and consumption trend of China’s accommodation industry. In the year from the beginning of 2020 to the beginning of 2021, The total scale of accommodation facilities (including hotels and other accommodation industries) in China decreased from 608000 to 447000, a year-on-year decrease of 26.5%.
Investment advice
1) Recommendation Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the marginal travel demand in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, which is still expected to usher in catalysis in the near future, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) Three major airlines are recommended: domestic covid-19 oral specific drugs have been approved for listing, the dawn of international flight recovery may be present, and the company will show greater profit flexibility in the recovery stage.
3) Recommendation Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) : China’s transportation capacity accounts for a large proportion, and its performance is the first to recover. Before the opening of the door, its profit performance is more stable and has high long-term growth.
4) Recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) and pay attention to Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : the leading industry of chain hotel group β， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) under the three-year goal of ten thousand stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%.
5) Recommendation China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : under the comprehensive layout of outlying islands + online + Airport + city, the company still has great growth space. The tax-free rent negotiation of the capital airport landed last year, and the opening of Meilan Airport Phase II duty-free store is expected to catalyze the company’s performance.
Risk statement
The epidemic recovery was less than expected, the industry demand was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified
