Precious metals: the U.S. inflation inflection point will appear, and the upward expectation of the U.S. dollar index will continue to suppress the price of gold. ① Nominal interest rate: during the week, the interest rate of ten-year US bonds rose to 1.48% from 1.35%. The United States did not quarterly adjust CPI in November, which was in line with expectations (the actual value is 6.8%, the expected value is 6.8%, and the previous value is 6.2%). Although inflation is still in the upward trend, the rate has decreased significantly. In December, the initial value of consumer confidence index rebounded to 70.4, higher than the expected value of 67.1 and the previous value of 67.4. The year-on-year CPI rate of the United States peaked in December or January, and the market began to be optimistic about the subsequent trend of inflation. On the whole, the current job market has been effectively repaired, while The variable of slow employment intention needs to be improved for a long time. At present, there are more job vacancies in the job market. From a horizontal comparison, the repair of the job market has provided a basis for tightening liquidity at the policy end; ② Inflation expectations: the implied inflation in the US bond market was flat at 2.44%, and the real interest rate rose slightly during the week to – 0.96% from – 1.08%. With a number of Fed officials’ statements on liquidity tightening in advance, the market is expected to strengthen the completion of taper’s implementation in advance. At the same time, with the easing of inflationary pressure and the continuous repair of employment, the bond market has increased confidence in the economic form of the United States in 2022, corresponding to the rise of real interest rate. From the market trading results, inflation expectations have dropped significantly, and the marginal upward movement of short-term interest rate proves that the market expects the liquidity tightening operation to come in advance, and the short-term repression force of gold price is more obvious. Suggestions: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Base metal: seasonal accumulation of copper inventory; The profit of aluminum electrolysis has strengthened significantly. Copper: ① in terms of price, China copper society has accumulated 6800 tons, LME inventory has increased by 3400 tons, the trend of global copper inventory has been reversed, the accumulation of copper is expected to increase at the end of the year, and the focus of copper price is facing macro downward pressure. In November, the scissors difference between CPI and PPI converged, and the profit distribution of the industrial chain was transferred to the downstream. ② In terms of supply, the northern copper import concentration area at the raw material end of the mine was affected by the epidemic, the raw material customs clearance was not smooth, and the regional tension in the supply of copper concentrate dragged down China’s TC transaction price stalemate to a low of 60; 22. The long-term single negotiation has not yet landed, and it is expected that the short-term TC spot market will maintain a stalemate and wait-and-see pattern. ③ In terms of demand, the release of State Grid orders accelerated at the end of the year, and the consumption margin of downstream cables and copper rods improved. This week, the spot inflow of copper imports increased, the bonded inventory maintained a rapid decline, China’s inventory has turned to a slight recovery, and the spot premium structure of LME has also weakened. With the resumption of normal production on China’s supply side, the global spot tension has eased marginally, the fundamental destocking has slowed down at the end of the year and gradually entered the accumulation period, and the expectation is enhanced. In the short term, copper prices may face the dual pressure of macro interest rate increase and weakening fundamental support; (2) Aluminum: in terms of cost: during the week, alumina decreased by 7.2% from 3320 yuan / ton to 3080 yuan / ton, corresponding to the taxable production cost of self owned power plant of about 16600 yuan / ton, and a single ton of electrolytic aluminum Profit level of (captive power plant) during the week, the profit rose to 1948 yuan / ton. The logic of supporting the cost of electrolytic aluminum during the week continued to weaken. In December, it continued to go to the warehouse to support the strong demand for replenishment in the downstream year, and the aluminum electrolysis link will become a long-term bottleneck in the industrial chain. Under the background of going to the warehouse, the price of electrolytic aluminum will be stronger than that of the upstream raw material end, corresponding to the continuous improvement of the profit of aluminum electrolysis link; demand: China The apparent inventory is 34000 tons, and the rhythm of stock removal changes from external strength and internal weakness to internal strength and external weakness. In downstream procurement, plate, strip and foil enterprises maintain a high operating level, which is the core support for the current demand side. During the week, the commencement of aluminum profiles began to pick up, and the “steady growth” economic conference had a positive effect on the follow-up real estate demand. The demand for building profiles is expected to improve substantially, and the overall demand will continue to support the profitability of aluminum electrolysis. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China nonferrous metals mining, Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Jchx Mining Management Co.Ltd(603979) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Energy metals: lithium supply and demand are improving again in winter; The mutant strain continuously disturbed the cobalt supply. (1) Lithium: there are differences in the start-up of lithium carbonate manufacturers in China. The start-up of major large factories is normal, the customer relationship is stable, and the output has increased steadily; however, some small factories have poor start-up due to excessive cost pressure. At present, the production is mainly based on delivery orders. The weather changes affect the production at the salt lake end. At the same time, the gas restriction policy in Qinghai and the power restriction policy in Jiangxi and other places have hindered the start-up of manufacturers, resulting in overall economic losses Supply tightening; (2) Nickel: the decline of stainless steel demand leads to the decline of nickel ore price, and the weakening marginal cost of nickel beans leads to the weakening of nickel sulfate cost support. At present, stainless steel enterprises have incurred production losses under nickel price, and the space for subsequent price reduction is limited; (3) Cobalt: the variant strain in South Africa continues to affect the cobalt supply route. At present, the new epidemic has disturbed the cobalt supply chain, and part of the shipping schedule uncertainty will continue until the first quarter of 2022. China’s arrival in Hong Kong will follow up or face another decline. It is suggested to pay attention to: Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Xtc New Energy Materials( Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) 、 Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) 。
The new energy boom continued to drive EV metal market, and low inventory supported copper and aluminum price toughness. (1) The high prosperity of EV metal is superimposed on the demand for replenishment of the industrial chain, and the lithium price is expected to continue to rise; (2) low inventory & cost of copper and aluminum moves up to consolidate the high price.
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc.
