Main points:
The penetration rate of production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to reach a new high, high-quality supply effectively stimulated demand, and the industry boom was upward. According to the Automobile Association of China in mid November this year, the output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 457000, an increase of 15.1% month on month and 127.8% year-on-year; The sales volume was 450000, with a month on month increase of 17.3% and a year-on-year increase of 121.1%; In November, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 17.8%, and that of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.5%. From January to November, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 2.99 million, a year-on-year increase of 166.8%, and the cumulative sales penetration rate increased to 12.7%. At the end of the year, the particularity of automobile consumption attribute and policy impulse will promote the continuous rise of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle production and sales, while the new models that continue to be listed effectively increase the choice of all levels and prices, and the rich supply also continues to stimulate the release of demand. Consumers’ recognition of new energy vehicles and corresponding intelligent driving is becoming more and more obvious. It is expected that the annual sales volume is expected to exceed 3.4 million this year and 5 million next year, and the prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry is upward.
Under the high demand, the battery plant and midstream material link continue to expand production capacity, and the cost pressure of the battery plant is gradually relieved and transferred. With the continuous improvement of downstream lithium battery demand, the battery plant and midstream material link continue to expand production capacity. On the one hand, the midstream links gradually release production capacity, and the high material prices are expected to be gradually relieved this year; On the other hand, the price negotiation between the battery factory and the vehicle factory can effectively transfer part of the cost pressure; At the same time, the capacity utilization rate and shipment volume of the head battery factory have increased significantly, so the gross profit margin is expected to gradually reverse and improve, and the global market share of revenue and profit is expected to further improve. It is suggested to pay attention to battery plants with global competitiveness and midstream material links where relative supply and demand are still tight, such as negative electrode, graphitization, diaphragm, etc.
The contradiction between supply and demand of lithium resources has intensified, the lithium price has accelerated upward, the lithium price center has maintained a high level, the value of the sector is prominent, the supply side Salt Lake has a seasonal reduction in production, the release of smelting capacity is also subject to ore, and there is little increase in global supply in the medium and short term; However, the demand side lithium battery production has increased month by month. Battery factories and midstream material factories prepared goods years ago. At the same time, the midstream and downstream expanded production and scale, amplifying the demand for the upstream; The inventory of all parties in the industry is low, the contradiction between supply and demand intensifies, the spot price accelerates, the contract price of large manufacturers rises month by month, the price of individual orders jumps, and the lithium price center remains high with the support of supply and demand.
Investment suggestions: it is suggested to pay attention to the industry leaders with global competitiveness and high growth tracks represented by lithium iron phosphate and high nickel: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the links and companies that are still tight in supply and demand, can obtain excess profits of the industrial chain and continue to expand: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) .
Risk warning: the development of new energy vehicles is not as expected; Disruptive breakthroughs in related technologies; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Product prices fell more than expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials.
