Key points of the report:
The gradual implementation of the policy is expected to bring valuation repair and grasp the main line of high-quality content and new technology
In 2021, a series of regulatory policies were issued in the fields of antitrust, data security, games and entertainment, and the overall performance of the media sector was under pressure. With the gradual implementation of policies, the competitive order of the industry tends to be standardized, and the marginal impact is gradually weakened. The head Internet platform with high barriers and high-quality content side are expected to strengthen their advantages. Under the mature conditions of superimposed VR / AR technology, the investment opportunities of meta universe related industries are expected to boost the valuation of the sector.
Metauniverse is expected to become the next generation Internet form and open up new space for growth
When the existing traffic growth hits the top, metauniverse may become a new content aggregation platform and traffic highland. At present, metauniverse is in the early stage of gradually expanding scene applications such as games to other applications, and the relevant technologies and contents have yet to be mature, but the accelerated layout of software and hardware giants will promote the development of the industry. In terms of technology, 5g penetration, AI and cloud computing power, and the expansion of application scope such as blockchain and NFT provide technical basis; In terms of hardware, consumer grade VR / AR equipment has ushered in rapid growth, and the global VR shipment is expected to increase to more than 10 million next year, superimposing high-quality content output to promote the initial ecological construction of high immersion and interactive meta universe. In the medium and long term, technology giants, content companies, tool companies and UGC platforms continue to cultivate relying on technological advantages.
Game sector: Supervision accelerates the refinement of the industry, and going to sea and technological upgrading boost growth
In 2021, it is estimated that the scale of mobile game market may exceed 230 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. On the policy side, the supervision of juvenile addiction prevention is upgraded, the supply of version numbers is tightened, and the development of the industry to standardization and high-quality products is still the long-term main line. On the product side, high-quality head products pull the pay ceiling, making it more difficult for new games to break through, and digging deep into market segments may become a new growth point. In terms of channels, the bargaining power of high-quality content manufacturers has been gradually improved. Under the influence of IDFA new deal and personal insurance law, the data barrier on the marketing side has been balanced to a certain extent, the manufacturers' dependence on buying means has been reduced, and the focus has returned to improving product quality. Manufacturers actively plan overseas layout and look for new growth points.
Video sector: long video revenue is under pressure, and short video commercialization continues to advance
Industry regulatory policies are becoming stricter. The long video head platform drives revenue growth by increasing member payment. The second-line leader is expected to continue to break the circle through high-quality content and usher in a simultaneous rise in volume and price. The tiktok of short video traffic is turning to the top, Kwai Yin, quick adjustment of organizational structure, efficiency improvement, the focus of commercialization of live business, advertising business, and accelerating the sea to explore multiple realisation.
Cinema segment: the recovery in 21 years was less than expected, and the supply improved in 22 years, looking forward to repair
As of November, the national box office reached 44.327 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 168.01%, about 74% in the same period in 2019. 5660 new screens were added, and the output of a single screen recovered to more than 500000, which is still a certain gap compared with that before the epidemic. The demand for high-quality domestic films is still strong. It is expected that the film market is expected to pick up with the improvement of supply and the recovery of per capita consumption frequency in 2022.
Investment advice
Game: pay attention to the high-quality R & D party and related companies of yuanuniverse industry, and actively recommend Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) , Netease and heart companies. Video: focus on the long video platform and short video leader with high-quality content output, and recommend Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) , BiliBili
Kwai. As well as the investment opportunities of laying out the leaders of the subdivided track, it is recommended to Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) , Guangdong South New Media Co.Ltd(300770) .
Risk statement
Policy supervision risk, epidemic recurrence risk and macro environment change risk.
