Main points:
The willingness to fill the column continued to pick up, and the growth rate of listed pig enterprises was significantly differentiated in November.
① Pig prices fell 8.7% week on week to 16.2 yuan / kg, and the industry continued to make profits. On Saturday, the national pig price was 16.2 yuan / kg, down 8.7% on a weekly basis; On Friday, the average wholesale price of pork in China was 24.46 yuan / kg, down 1.2% on a weekly basis. The profit from self breeding pigs was 131.31 yuan / head, and the profit from outsourcing piglet breeding was 294.07 yuan / head. ② The non plague situation has picked up, and the willingness to fill the column continues to pick up. Yongyi consulting disclosed data (12.3-12.9): 90 kg domestic pigs accounted for 9.16% in the whole country, and the weekly ratio increased by 0.48 percentage points, rising slightly for 6 consecutive weeks, which was at a relatively low level since non plague; this week, the market price of 15 kg piglets in large-scale farms was 404 yuan / head, and the weekly ratio increased by 1.8%, 162.3% higher than 154 yuan / head at the bottom, and the price of 50 kg binary sows was 1661 yuan / head, 1% higher than that at the bottom 238 yuan / head, up 34.2%, and the willingness to fill the column will continue to pick up. ③ The enthusiasm for making up hurdles is renewed, and the inflection point of pig cycle still needs to be observed. From October 2019 to May this year, the stock of fertile sows in China continued to rise month on month, corresponding to the rise of pig sales before May next year, and pig prices are expected to continue to fall after the Spring Festival; From June to October this year, the slaughter volume above designated size increased by 65.8%, 87.4%, 97.5%, 95.2% and 111% respectively year-on-year, confirming the rapid rise of pig slaughter. In June this year, the number of fertile sows in China was at an inflection point. From July to October, the number of fertile sows decreased by 5.7% month on month. However, since October, the pig price has risen beyond the time limit, and the enthusiasm for filling the market has revived, which may reverse the downward trend of fertile sows month on month; In addition, with the clearance of inefficient sows, the efficiency of sows is continuously improving, and the inflection point of pig cycle still needs to be observed. ④ In November, the year-on-year growth rate of listed pig enterprises was significantly differentiated. In the November of this year, the number of thousands of among the last November of the year in which the number of people on the market (the first of a million) is the high to low order of Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 387.4, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) {300498 {{00271714} {00271714} Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) {00271714} {00271714} 387.4 in the high to low order from high to low order, {00271717171714} 387} 387 387.387.4.4 {00271714} 387.4, 387 {} 387} 3838383838387} 387 3838387 387. 4 {000000870008700087878787878787876} 100} 119.6} 119.6 {30049the 42.7%、 Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 29.0%、 Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) -4.9%、 Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) -6.1%、 Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) -32%、 New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) -34.7%、 Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) -36.9%。
The production capacity of white feather and yellow feather has decreased, and the price of bird chain is expected to rise moderately in 2022.
① The price of white feather chicken products was flat on a week-on-week basis. Week 47, 2021 (11.29-12.5) the price of parent generation chicken seedlings is 38.7 yuan / set, up 3.1% on a weekly basis; the sales volume of parent generation chicken seedlings is 1.1207 million sets, down 0.2% on a monthly basis; the price of white feather chicken products on Friday is 9600 yuan / ton, flat on a weekly basis. We judge that the ancestral renewal of white feather broilers will be 1 million sets in 2020, down 18% on a yoy basis, and the price of white feather broilers is expected to stabilize and recover in 2022; from January to October this year The national ancestral generation has updated 1047100 sets, a year-on-year increase of 31%, and the chicken price may decline in 2023. ② Yellow feather chicken prices rose week on week. Affected by the covid-19 epidemic situation, increased production capacity and other factors, the loss degree of the yellow feather broiler industry in 2020 was second only to that in 2013 impacted by the "human infection h7n9 epidemic" event, and the stock in the ancestors began to decline from the middle of 2020. From 2020 to 2021, the yellow feather chicken industry suffered an overall loss, and the industry continued to lose production capacity. As of the 46th week of this year, the stock of yellow feather's parents' generation was 13.436 million, and the sales of yellow feather's parents' generation chicken seedlings were 1.098 million, all at the lowest level since 2018. The price of yellow feather chicken is expected to rise moderately in 2022. This Friday, the average price of yellow feather broiler fast big chicken was 7.17 yuan / kg, up 3.3% on a weekly basis and 15.7% on a year-on-year basis; The average price of medium speed chicken was 7.65 yuan / kg, with a weekly increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 19.2%; The average price of native chicken was 9.07 yuan / kg, up 1% on a weekly basis and 13.4% on a year-on-year basis; Black bone chicken was 7.11 yuan / kg, with a week-on-week increase of 2.8% and a year-on-year increase of 16.4%.
The commercialization of GM is gradually approaching, and the leader of seed industry is expected to fully benefit.
The commercialization of GM is gradually approaching, and we judge the impact as follows: ① the sale of GM corn seeds may begin in the second half of 2023. Some green channel varieties may start selling in the second half of next year. The revised draft is expected to be approved within this year or early next year. According to the revised draft, if it is within the scope of suitable planting areas, it is only necessary to do one-year productive experiments. Therefore, seed production will be carried out as soon as 2023, and then sales will begin in the second half of 2023. ② Corn seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. The promotion area of genetically modified maize in China is expected to reach 400-500 million mu. If the gene patent fee of 10 yuan per mu can correspond to a revenue of 4-5 billion yuan, the maize seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. ③ Seed industry leaders are expected to fully benefit. Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) have obtained biosafety certificates for genetically modified maize traits; Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) has high-quality maize germplasm resources; As a global agricultural technology giant and China's seed industry national team, Syngenta ranks third in seed business and first in plant protection business in the world, with an annual R & D cost of nearly 10 billion yuan. Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) and Syngenta are expected to stand out in the commercialization process of China's transgenic seed industry. As it will take time for production experiment, variety approval and performance fulfillment, it is expected that the seed industry sector will fluctuate upward. The December report of the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced that the prices of corn, soybean and soybean meal may remain relatively high.
① Corn prices may remain relatively high in 2022. According to the supply and demand report of USDA in December 2021, the global corn stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 is 25.6%, which is 0.2 percentage point lower than that in 20 / 21 and 0.1 percentage point higher than that in November, the lowest since 16 / 17. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in December: the national corn balance in 2021 / 22 is 1.83 million tons, the predicted balance is 1.59 million tons higher than that in November and 6.24 million tons lower than that in 2020 / 21. In 21 / 22, China's corn supply and demand is in a tight balance. We expect that the corn price may remain relatively high in 2022. ② Soybean and soybean meal prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The supply and demand report of USDA in December 2021 predicts that the global soybean stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 is 27.1%, 0.4 percentage points lower than that in 20 / 21 and 0.4 percentage points lower than that predicted in November; The global soybean meal inventory consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 5.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point over 20 / 21, the same as the forecast value in November, and still at the lowest level since 11 / 12. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in December: the national soybean balance in 2021 / 22 is 170000 tons, the predicted balance is 1.15 million tons lower than that in November and 5.89 million tons lower than that in 20 / 21. We expect soybean and soybean meal prices to remain high in 2022.
China's pet market has great potential, and the epidemic has dragged down the gradual end.
From 2010 to 2020, the scale of China's pet consumption market rose sharply from 14 billion yuan to 206.5 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 30.9%. In 2020, the scale growth of China's pet consumption market slowed to 2%, and it will still maintain a low growth rate in 2021. We believe that the main reason for the slowdown in growth from 2020 to 2021 is that the outbreak of covid-19 has significantly increased the downward pressure on the economy and delayed the entry of potential PET consumers into the market. In the medium and long term, the penetration rate of pets in China is 17%, while that in the United States, Australia, Britain and Japan is as high as 68%, 62%, 45% and 38% respectively; The number of dogs and cats per capita in China is 0.03 and 0.04 respectively. The annual consumption expenditure of pet dogs and cats in China is US $869 and US $679 respectively, which are lower than that of major pet breeding countries. China's pet consumption market has great growth potential. It is recommended to Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) .
Risk statement
Non plague out of control; Prices fell more than expected.
