The Politburo meeting and the central economic work conference made it clear to stabilize growth, benefit banks and catalyze bank stocks. The Politburo meeting and the central economic work conference were held this week to further clarify the policy directions of steady growth, easing of money and credit, maintaining real estate stability and supporting infrastructure investment, small and micro enterprises and manufacturing, and steady growth or continue to catalyze the correction and improvement of bank valuation.
We believe that the market in the early stage has fully reflected the negative sentiment towards banks. We recommend the main line leaders of the industry, combine flexibility, continue our recommendation of individual stocks: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , pay attention to Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , and gradually begin to pay attention to the value of undervalued targets.
Bank: last week, the A-share banking sector rose 2.36%, the CSI 300 index rose 3.14% in the same period, and the A-share banking sector lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 0.79 percentage points. According to the Shenwan industry classification standard, the rise and fall of the banking sector ranked 9 / 29, with more upward adjustments than last week. There are many upward adjustments in the A-share banking sector, among which Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) (+ 6.12%), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (+ 4.37%) and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (+ 4.14%) are the top gainers. The top gainers are China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) (- 0.59%) and Bank Of Zhengzhou Co.Ltd(002936) (- 0.59%). The upward adjustment of the H-share sector is the same as the downward adjustment, among which China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (3.52%) is the top gainer.
Industry news review: (1) Central Economic Work Conference: continue to implement active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy; adhere to the positioning of housing without speculation, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market; guide financial institutions to increase support for small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development; improve the financial risk disposal mechanism. (2) Politburo of the CPC Central Committee: next year’s economic work should be stable, seek progress while maintaining stability, and promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of real estate. (3) the central bank: decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, releasing a total of about 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds. (4) the central bank: the balance of RMB loans in November was 191.6 trillion yuan (year-on-year + 11.7%), the deposit balance was 231.1 trillion (year-on-year + 8.6%); in November, the stock of social financing scale was 311.9 trillion (year-on-year + 10.1%), with an increase of 2.6 trillion (year-on-year + 22.5%). (5) R & F real estate: it plans to sell assets to Blackstone Group and receive cash of 1.263 billion yuan. (6) Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) : it is approved to publicly issue secondary capital bonds of no more than 190 billion yuan. (7) Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) : completed the issuance of 40 billion yuan of financial bonds with a coupon rate of 2.97%.
Market review: (1) Funds: this week, the open market operation of the central bank remained stable, the interest rate remained at 2.20%, and a net return of 180 billion yuan was achieved, of which 50 billion yuan was invested in reverse repurchase and 230 billion yuan was due for reverse repurchase. The 1-day / 7-day / 14-day interbank offered rate decreased by 10bp / up 6BP / up 6BP to 1.85% / 2.38% / 2.49% respectively. The yield of 1-year / 10-year Treasury bonds increased by 2bp / down 3bp To 2.28% / 2.84%. (2) Financial management: the average annual yield of financial products (Wande) this week increased 9bp to 1.38% compared with last week. The average annualized yield of Internet financial products on the 7th of this week was 2.13%, up 1bp from last week. (3) Interbank: this week, the interest rate of AAA + interbank certificates of deposit increased by 50bp / and decreased by 1bp / 0bp to 1.48% / 2.50% / 2.59% respectively in one month / three months / six months. The balance of interbank certificates of deposit at the end of November was 13.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 693.1 billion yuan over the end of October. (4) Bond financing: in November, the net financing scale of non-financial corporate bonds was 302.07 billion yuan, of which the issuance scale was 1.35 trillion yuan and the repayment scale was 1.04 trillion yuan.
Risk tip: the deterioration of asset quality caused by economic downturn exceeded expectations.
