Event overview
On December 10, 2021, the central economic work conference was held.
Core view
The central economic work conference opened the curtain of steady growth and grasped the strongest main line in 2022. Bank stocks "elephant dance" will soon start the main wave. Individual stock recommendation: Societe Generale / Ping An + postal savings / Nanjing / Everbright + China Merchants Bank / Ningbo.
Main interpretation
1. Curtain of steady growth opens
(1) The central government has a profound understanding of economic pressure: the meeting first mentioned that China's economy is facing three major pressures of "shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations". (2) clarify the attitude of stabilizing growth in 2022: emphasize that the economic work in 2022 should "be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability", and require "actively launch policies conducive to economic stability". Policy regulation has changed from "cross cycle" to "cross cycle" "Organic combination of cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies" to support the economy.
2. Broad credit is expected to work
(1) How does the policy set the tone for wide credit? The statement of "maintaining the basic stability of macro leverage ratio" was deleted at the meeting to release a strong signal of wide credit. (2) What are the main areas of credit relief? Infrastructure investment and real estate rectification are expected to drive credit relief in 2022. ① infrastructure investment: the strength of fiscal expenditure and the advance of infrastructure construction are expected to drive a good start. In addition to the structural tight credit impact of real estate urban investment, the weak credit demand in the early stage is also due to the small strength of fiscal supporting policies. The meeting stressed that "fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated and linked" "Ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure and speed up the progress of expenditure", "moderately advance infrastructure investment". ② Real estate rectification: the construction of affordable housing is expected to drive the demand for real estate investment and financing. Both this meeting and the Politburo meeting emphasized "promoting the construction of affordable housing". On December 10, the Shanghai headquarters of the people's Bank of China jointly held a bank enterprise matchmaking meeting for affordable housing. Investment in affordable housing construction is expected to support the demand for real estate investment and financing in the future. (3) What do you think of the pace of broad credit in the future? The meeting requires that various policies should be moderately advanced. It is expected that the trend of broad credit will continue from December 2021 to the first half of 2022, and the first quarter of 2022 is expected to have a good start.
3. Real estate risk mitigation
(1) The main responsibility of risk prevention is clear: the meeting requires "compacting the responsibilities of local, financial supervision, industry directors and other parties, and compacting the main responsibility of enterprise self-help." In addition to financial institutions, local governments, industry executives and enterprises themselves need to bear the responsibility of risk prevention, and the pressure of bank risk resolution is expected to be alleviated.
(2) Refinement of real estate development ideas: the "promotion of a virtuous cycle of the real estate industry" at the meeting of the Political Bureau On the basis of requirements, clarify the development ideas of the real estate industry. ① All localities implement policies according to the city; ② Adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, and promote the construction of affordable housing. It is expected that in the future: ① more state-owned enterprises will participate in land auction and acquisition to alleviate local financial pressure; ② Closely observe the trend of M & a market and whether it can resolve the pressure of highly leveraged real estate enterprises. On December 10, the inter-bank market dealers association held a symposium for representatives of real estate enterprises to give priority to supporting enterprises' registered debt financing instruments in line with real estate regulation policies for the construction of M & A projects or sold projects under construction. If the M & a market is reactivated, highly leveraged real estate enterprises are expected to obtain risk mitigation.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall and significant exposure of adverse.
