Demand side: the medium and long-term loans of new residents increased month on month and year-on-year, and the mortgage loans continued to “increase in volume and decrease in price”
In terms of capital volume, the medium and long-term loans of residents increased by 582.1 billion yuan in November, the highest since April, The year-on-year growth rate was + 15.3% (October + 4%), which was positive year-on-year for two consecutive months; from January to November 2021, the cumulative medium and long-term loans for residents increased by 5.72 trillion, a year-on-year increase of + 3.9% (compared with October + 2.7% and the year-on-year increase of + 9.2% in 2020), and began to rebound after the cumulative year-on-year growth hit the bottom. The cumulative medium and long-term loans for residents accounted for 30.4% of the new loans (29.3% in the same caliber data last month and 30.3% in 2020).
On December 6, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to emphasize that the economic work in 2022 should be “stable and seek progress while maintaining stability”, and continue to implement an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. We should promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market, better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry. On December 6, the central bank announced a comprehensive RRR reduction of 0.5 percentage points and released 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds. We believe that the RRR reduction will further release the signal of industry liquidity repair. It is expected that the mortgage loan will continue the pattern of “volume increase and price decrease” at the end of the fourth quarter, ensure the reasonable and rigid purchase demand of residents, indirectly benefit the sales collection of real estate enterprises, and repair the fundamentals of “leveraged and stable” real estate enterprises, So as to maintain the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate market.
Supply side: in November, the scale of domestic bond issuance rebounded and the financing environment improved; The US dollar bond issuance market continues to be cold
In November, real estate enterprises at home and abroad issued 43.8 billion yuan of bonds in a single month, The month on month ratio was + 52.3% (October – 57.5%), the year-on-year ratio was – 54.0% (October – 61.7%), and the monthly net financing was – 25 billion yuan (October – 34.4 billion yuan). Among them, domestic bond issuance rebounded in November, with a month on month increase of + 129.2% to 42.8 billion yuan, and a monthly net financing of – 11 billion yuan. In November, the issuance of US dollar bonds in the primary market continued to be cold, and the issuance of US dollar bonds by real estate enterprises was 1 billion yuan a month, a month on month decrease of 90.0%, a year-on-year decrease of 97.3%, and a monthly net financing of about – 14 billion yuan (October – 12.5 billion yuan).
In November, the establishment amount of real estate collective trust was about 14.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 76.3%, accounting for 15.0% of the establishment scale of collective trust in a single month, slightly higher than that in October.
In terms of domestic capital prices, on November 9 Bank Of China Limited(601988) , the association of market dealers held a symposium on behalf of real estate enterprises, which released warmth for real estate enterprises to issue debt financing instruments in the inter-bank market. The bond issuance interest rate of high-quality real estate enterprises in the current month was generally lower than that in the previous period. In terms of overseas bonds, in October, due to the credit risk exposure of some real estate enterprises, the secondary market price of Chinese dollar real estate bonds fluctuated greatly; In November, some real estate enterprises still defaulted or extended their US dollar bonds, and overseas rating agencies continued to downgrade the credit ratings of many real estate enterprises (China Olympic Park, Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) ), which had an impact on overseas investment preferences. The issuance of US dollar bonds in the primary market continued to be cold. Only Dragonair group successfully issued a US dollar bond, and the financing cost was flat compared with the previous period.
Investment suggestion: the central bank set the tone of “two maintenance” at its meeting on September 24 and cleared up doubts on October 15“ α “Risk” exposure and“ β Coefficient “healthy and stable; The real estate tax pilot is conducive to reducing the tax pressure on development and house purchase, and the house purchase restriction measures in the pilot areas are expected to be gradually withdrawn“ α The “risk” repair has entered the implementation stage; Since the fourth quarter, the liquidity of the real estate industry has continued to repair, and it is expected that development loans and mortgage loans will continue to pick up. This time, the central bank comprehensively reduced the reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage points and released long-term funds of 1.2 trillion yuan. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market. We believe that the pessimistic expectations of the capital market for the real estate sector will be further alleviated, While reiterating that we are optimistic about the leading real estate enterprises with strong comprehensive strength, we believe that the release of funds from the comprehensive reduction of standards is marginally more favorable to the “leveraged and stable” private enterprise real estate.
Highlight China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) / Vanke enterprises, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Jinmao, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; It is recommended to pay attention to Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , rongchuang China, China overseas development, China Resources Land, Longhu group, Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) .
Risk analysis: global inflation expectations and the rise of bulk commodities may lead to upward pressure on interest rates, or have a potential impact on capital intensive real estate development; Covid-19 epidemic and Sino US trade friction may lead to the development and employment of some industries in China less than expected, and then affect the income and credit expansion of residents; The “three red lines” of real estate enterprises superimpose the centralized debt repayment period, and some real estate enterprises may have credit default; Bank loan concentration management may limit the scale of real estate credit.
