Core view
In the post real estate cycle this week, the performance of furniture, kitchen appliances, service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , white appliances, small appliances and lighting electricians was relatively strong. The CSI 300 index rose 3.14% this week. Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle, the sectors of furniture, kitchen appliances, services Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , white appliances, small appliances and lighting electricians rose 13.31%, 10.75%, 7.78%, 6.62%, 4.11% and 3.86% this week, outperforming the market by 10.16pct, 7.61pct, 4.63pct, 3.48pct, 0.97pct and 0.71pct. The sector of black appliances rose 1.90% this week and underperformed the market by 1.24pct.
Domestic sales: in November, online sales of emerging categories such as integrated stoves and clean appliances continued to grow at a high year-on-year rate. (1) Upstream raw material price: this week, the price of furniture plate raw materials fell, and the price trend of soft furniture raw materials was differentiated; the price of copper and aluminum fell, the price data of stainless steel had not been updated, and the price trend of plastic raw materials was differentiated. (2) China's real estate demand: in October, the sales and completion of new houses continued to decline; in October, the transaction volume of second-hand houses continued to decline year-on-year. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the national residential sales area in October 2021 decreased by 24.1% year-on-year, 12% year-on-year compared with October 2019; in terms of second-hand housing transactions, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in 10 major cities in China was 40500 units in November 2021, down 38% year-on-year; In terms of the opening of hardbound houses, according to the statistical data of ovicloud, the opening volume of hardbound houses in China was about 273000 units in October 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 29.2%. (3) Retail tracking: in November 2021, the retail sales of furniture decreased by 0.13% year-on-year, turning to negative growth year-on-year; the retail sales of household appliances increased by 18.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was significantly improved. According to the monitoring data of ovicloud, the online sales of small kitchen appliances decreased by 26.7% year-on-year in November 2021, the online retail sales of integrated stoves and dishwashers increased by 42.3% and 4.7% year-on-year respectively, and the online sales of clean electrical appliances increased The online retail sales increased by 27.1% year-on-year, of which the online retail sales of sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) increased by 35.1% year-on-year. According to the statistics of Amoy data platform, in November 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of sales of key brands such as integrated stoves and clean appliances improved significantly, and the year-on-year growth rate of many brands of small kitchen, TV and university was still negative.
Export: in November, the export volume of furniture and household appliances industry maintained a positive year-on-year growth, and the growth rate of furniture export decreased significantly. (1) Overseas real estate demand: in November 2021, the sales of existing homes in the United States decreased by 9% year-on-year and continued to grow negatively; the number of new construction in November decreased by 5% year-on-year. (2) Export performance of sectors and sub categories: in November 2021, the export volume of furniture and household appliances industry maintained a positive year-on-year growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2% and 22% respectively. The growth rate of furniture export volume decreased significantly. According to the data disclosed by the General Administration of customs, in October 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of export volume of microwave ovens, electric frying pans, bread machines and other categories decreased compared with September, but air conditioners, range hoods and kitchens Housing, small household appliances and other categories continued the high growth trend since the third quarter.
Investment proposal and investment object
The demand for domestic sales and export continued to grow rapidly in the post real estate cycle. It is suggested to pay attention to the customized home leading Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (002572, buy), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (603833, overweight), Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) (300616, overweight), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (603801, not rated), software furniture leading Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (603816, not rated); Benefiting from the high growth of emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances, it is recommended to pay attention to China's floor sweepers Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leaders Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486, overweight), Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) (688169, buy), small household appliances leaders with continuous category innovation Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) (002242, overweight), Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) (002705, buy), Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) (002959, overweight), Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) (300824, overweight).
Risk statement
The risk of real estate sales and completion falling short of expectations, and the risk of sharp rise in the price of raw materials
