Concerns about the epidemic have eased, and international oil prices have risen sharply
This week, the mainstream vaccine was still effective against the Omicron mutant, the market’s concern about the possible demand caused by the epidemic was alleviated, the new round of Iran’s nuclear negotiations reached an impasse, reducing the possibility of Iran’s oil returning to the market, and the international oil price rose sharply. As of December 11, Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices closed at US $75.15/barrel and US $71.67/barrel respectively. The dollar index traded near 96.0.
The number of oil drilling rigs in the United States increased by 4, and the crude oil inventory decreased by 240000 barrels
This week, the number of active oil drilling wells in the United States increased by 4 to 471, and the total number of oil and gas drilling rigs increased by 7 to 576. U.S. crude oil inventory was 432.9 million barrels, a decrease of 240000 barrels over the previous week; The total gasoline inventory in the United States was 219.3 million barrels, an increase of 3.88 million barrels over the previous week; Distillate oil inventory was 126.6 million barrels, an increase of 2.73 million barrels over the previous week.
OPEC output increased in October, with an increase of 217000 barrels / day to 27.453 million barrels / day compared with the previous month
OPEC output increased in October, with Saudi Arabia’s output of 9.759 million barrels / day, an increase of 110000 barrels / day over the previous month; Iraq’s output was 4.149 million barrels per day, an increase of 7000 barrels per day over the previous month; Iran’s output was 2.502 million barrels per day, an increase of 10000 barrels per day over the previous month; Venezuela’s output was 59000 barrels / day, an increase of 57000 barrels / day over the previous month; Libya’s output was 1.164 million barrels per day, an increase of 15000 barrels per day over the previous month.
This week, naphtha and pure benzene prices rose, while ethylene, propylene and butadiene prices fell. The price difference of naphtha, PDH and MTO fell.
Mainstream vaccines are still effective, and concerns about crude oil demand have eased
This week, mainstream vaccines were still effective, and concerns about crude oil demand eased. On the demand side, more than 75% of the infected people with Omicron variant in the United States have been vaccinated with covid-19 vaccine. At present, these infected people only show mild symptoms. The experimental data also show that the third dose of Pfizer vaccine can restore the protection against Omicron variant; Pfizer expects to launch the vaccine against the Omicron variant before March 22; Domestic covid-19 specific drug showed the effectiveness of Omicron in pseudovirus experiment; Sinopharm has laid out the R & D work for Omicron mutant in three technical routes. The above information shows that the existing mainstream vaccines at home and abroad are still effective against the Omicron variant. The vaccine R & D layout of Chinese and foreign pharmaceutical giants for the Omicron variant has greatly alleviated the market’s concern about the impact of the epidemic deterioration on the demand. On the supply side, Iran’s nuclear negotiations are deadlocked again, and the United States has strengthened sanctions against Iran, reducing the possibility of Iran’s oil returning to the market; Iraq’s current oil production capacity is 4.8 million barrels / day; Kazakhstan’s oil production in November was 1.6 million barrels / day and plans to maintain its oil production at 87 million tons in 2022. In conclusion, the mainstream vaccine is still effective against the Omicron mutant, the market’s concern about the epidemic has been alleviated, the demand for crude oil will further recover, and the international oil price is expected to rise further. In the follow-up, we will focus on the development trend of Omicron strain, the implementation of OPEC + production increase plan, the release of strategic oil reserves in various countries, the negotiation progress of Iran nuclear agreement, vaccine R & D and vaccination progress, etc.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the oil price center will still have a large increase year-on-year in 21 years, so we are still optimistic about the petrochemical industry chain benefiting from the rise of oil price center. We suggest paying attention to the following subscripts: first, the upstream plate, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) ; Second, oil service plate, China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Cnooc Energy Technology & Services Limited(600968) , Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation(600871) , Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) ; Third, large private refining and chemical sector, Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ; Fourth, light hydrocarbon cracking plate, Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) and Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; Fifth, coal to olefins, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ; The sixth and third largest chemical white horses, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) and Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) .
Risk analysis: geopolitical risk, tension between China and the United States, and excessive growth of us production.
