abstract
Roving prices remained stable at a high level this week and continued to be optimistic about the continuity of the prosperity of the glass fiber industry. The price of glass fiber roving remained stable at a high level this week, the trading became stable, and the supply of most products continued to be in short supply; Small changes in inventory are still at the bottom of history. The increase in demand focuses on the increase in the penetration of exports, wind power and new energy vehicles. It has been flexible for 21 years and has long-term growth. There is no change in supply planning this week, and there is no change in production line status this week. In 21q4 / 22, the new supply was relatively limited, and the association guided the orderly expansion of new production capacity. We are optimistic about the continuity of high prosperity and weakening of cyclical fluctuations in the glass fiber industry, limited supply increment and demand, focusing on the rhythm of overseas transportation and repair and the demand 21q4 improvement of wind power; At the same time, pay close attention to: 1) the impact of changes in medium and long-term capacity planning on market expectations under the state of high profitability, and 2) the disturbance of tightening energy consumption indicators on the landing of new capacity.
The price of electronic yarn / electronic cloth has been lowered in many cycles, and the downward probability is faster or smaller. This week, the price of electronic yarn and electronic cloth decreased significantly month on month, or due to the impact of changes in procurement rhythm due to downstream factors such as controlling inventory near the end of the year, the demand is supported, and the probability of further significant decline is small. China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) the production capacity of electronic yarn and electronic thick cloth continued to expand, and the share increased steadily; Grace Fabric Technology Co.Ltd(603256) high end electronic cloth technology has advantages (the first echelon in the world), gradually realize self supply of high-end electronic yarn, and pay attention to the production rhythm and operation effect of Huangshi gauze project.
The industry cycle attribute may be gradually weakened, focusing on China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) . The valuation of major listed companies in the glass fiber sector is at the bottom of the historical range (mainly listed traditional glass fiber enterprises with PE of about 12x in 21 years), the medium and long-term configuration cost performance is good. The judgment of the industry cycle attribute is that the market core is different, the new supply is limited, it is difficult to obtain energy consumption indicators, and the demand is growing. The third quarterly report or performance forecast of major enterprises proves that the industry boom continues to rise, and we judge it to be continuous. We suggest paying attention to the weakening of the industry cycle We will continue to recommend China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) with a stable global leading position, firm promotion of cost reduction / scale expansion / high-end product structure, medium and long-term growth, strong strength of glass fiber business, improvement of diaphragm benefits / gradual improvement of voice, medium and long-term growth of blades Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , obvious technical advantages, gradual production of Huangshi gauze project In addition, Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) (jointly covered with the chemical team) and Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) which are worth looking forward to.
Risk tip: the new production capacity of glass fiber exceeds the expectation, the new production capacity planning exceeds the expectation, and the downstream demand is lower than the expectation (wind power, automobile, electronics, etc.).
