Key investment points:
This week, the prosperity index of Guohai chemical industry was 156.46, down 2.43 month on month, giving the industry a "recommended" rating.
Investment suggestion: invest in the subject matter with expansion capacity, the subject matter of downstream industries and the subject matter of new energy materials.
The central economic work conference pointed out that the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and conditions will be created to realize the transformation from "double control" of energy consumption to "double control" of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible. According to the energy statistical reporting system, the energy consumption for raw materials refers to that energy products are not used for fuel and power, but used as raw materials or auxiliary materials of products. When used as raw materials, they usually constitute the entity of such products. We understand that it mainly means that the parts used as raw materials such as oil, coal and natural gas are not included in the total energy consumption control. Therefore, for petrochemical, coal chemical and natural gas chemical industries, the energy consumption of new projects controlled by the total energy consumption has decreased significantly. The coal consumption of methanol raw materials accounts for about 59% of the total coal consumption, 79% of synthetic ammonia and 30% of PVC, The difficulty of obtaining the approval of new projects is greatly reduced, which is a great benefit for coal chemical industry ( Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) ) and petrochemical industry ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ).
The central economic work conference requires that next year's economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability, that all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, that all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and that the policy force should be appropriately advanced. A stable economic environment is more favorable to leading enterprises.
Looking forward to 2022, we believe that chemical industry leaders, downstream industries and new material industries are the key directions. This year, the problem of suppressing the capacity expansion of leading enterprises is expected to be gradually alleviated, the loss of profits in downstream industries due to high raw material costs will be alleviated, and the new material industry will be driven by new energy and emerging industries to usher in a good opportunity for development.
The tire industry has entered the strategic layout period. We judge that 2021q3 is the lowest point of the industry. In 2021q4 and 2022q1, the profits of the tire industry begin to improve. Based on three judgments, first, the supply shrinks and small and medium-sized tire enterprises begin to shut down. According to the data of Zhuo Chuang information, on December 9, the operating rate of Shandong semi steel tire enterprises was 63.8%, and the operating rate under normal conditions was about 70%, The operating rate of Shandong all steel tire enterprises is 64.3%, and the operating rate under normal circumstances is more than 70%. Dual control and negative cash flow are two reasons, especially the net operating cash flow of some listed companies in the second quarter has turned negative; Second, the price of sea freight has been loosened. This week, the FBX index from China to the western US port was US $14825 / feu, up 1.01% month on week; The FBX index from China to Meidong port was USD 16772 / feu, up 1.01% month on week; Third, in November, the monthly output of commercial vehicles in China was 350000, an increase of 3% month on month, the output of automobiles was 2.59 million, an increase of 11% month on month, and the output of trucks was 309000, an increase of 1% month on month. The bottom of the tire reversed. Under the background of shrinking supply and improving demand, according to Tencent News, incomplete statistics, as of November 3, 84 tire enterprises in China had announced price increases, and some enterprises even announced price increases until next year. On the whole, this round of price increases ranged from 2% to 5%, with a maximum increase of 10%. We believe that the profit margin level of tires will gradually recover. In the long run, Chinese tire enterprises have outstanding cost performance advantages in the middle and low-end market, import substitution in the high-end market through channel forces, and the two major trends of internationalization and branding are irreversible. They focus on Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) . These three enterprises have a significant expansion of overseas production capacity in 2022, as well as rubber additive enterprises Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) and conveyor belt enterprises Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co.Ltd(002381) .
Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has entered a period of rapid expansion. We believe that the core means to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in the chemical industry is to use technological innovation to bring changes in energy structure, energy consumption level, raw material structure and product structure. Technological innovation is the key. Innovation can continue to grow. The R & D cost of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) in the third quarter reached 930 million yuan, Construction in progress was 28.1 billion yuan, accounting for 46% of fixed assets, of which the cash inflow of fixed assets purchased and constructed in the third quarter reached 7.6 billion yuan, reaching a record high. According to the EIA, Wanhua Fujian Industrial Park plans to expand MDI project to 1.6 million T / a (Wanhua isocyanate company) and TDI project to 360000 T / a (Wanhua Fujian), and Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) enters the rapid expansion period. We expect that 2021q4 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 10000 tons of ternary battery materials and 60000 tons of biodegradable polyester materials are expected to be put into operation, bringing new catalysts. Under the background of double carbon, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) As an excellent thermal insulation material, MDI is expected to usher in the demand explosion period, and the company focuses on Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) because of its R & D and innovation ability, capacity expansion and worry free growth.
The prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry is sustainable, and the transformation of new energy is in progress. The price of phosphate rock continued to rise, from 350 yuan / ton at the end of 2020 to 627.5 yuan / ton at present, an increase of 79%; Ammonium monohydrate for wet process industry in Southwest China was adjusted from 5300 yuan / ton on September 23 to 5600 yuan / ton on December 10, reversing upward again; The price of yellow phosphorus was adjusted back to 39500 yuan / ton, up more than 68% from 23500 yuan / ton in August; Enterprises with industrial chain integration benefit. In addition, the export volume of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer decreased significantly in August, and the export was limited. As a compound fertilizer industry with squeezed terminal profits, the profits gradually improved. In the first half of 2022, both Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) and Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) iron phosphate will be implemented, and the phosphorus chemical industry chain is still in the transition period from traditional chemical fertilizer industry to new energy materials. We focus on phosphorus chemical enterprises with industrial chain integration and fast transformation speed, including Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Shenzhen Batian Ecotypic Engineering Co.Ltd(002170) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) and other enterprises. Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) merger draft has been released.
Satellite chemical phase I ethylene project was gradually put into operation. On October 9, according to Xinhua news agency, China and the United States agreed to increase the export of American agricultural products and energy. Satellite chemical will be encouraged to import ethane from the United States. The continuous implementation of satellite chemical light hydrocarbon integration project deserves special attention.
The leading development of coal chemical industry has ushered in a turnaround. With the relaxation of raw material energy consumption policy, the coal chemical projects blocked in the early stage are expected to be implemented, and the growth of enterprises such as Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) is prominent.
Private refining ushered in a good opportunity for development. The large-scale refining and chemical projects gradually extend downstream, and a series of new chemical material projects are expected to be implemented, focusing on Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) and other enterprises.
At the same time, pay attention to Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) with the sharp rise in the price of Kungfu pyrethrin, Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) with the continuous rise in the price of sugar substitutes, Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) and Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) that can still maintain the performance growth under the pressure of the rise in the price of raw materials, and Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) expanding to new energy materials.
Chemical industry leaders are the kings of the future. According to our observation, there are a number of leading companies in China's chemical industry. Compared with international competitors, they show obvious efficiency advantages in terms of rate of return, labor efficiency and turnover. The slowdown of China's GDP growth and the control of carbon emissions in the future have led to the concentration of resources in all aspects to the leading chemical enterprises, superimposed with intelligent manufacturing, R & D and innovation, and the increase of the leading market share is accelerating. At present, we believe that China's leading companies have the ability to plan a global blueprint and move towards global leaders. We suggest that we should work with excellent enterprises and invest in those enterprises with efficient execution. This efficient ability will make the profitability of Chinese enterprises higher than that of international competitors, with higher rate of return and larger scale in the future. Therefore, the market value of foreign giants is far from the ceiling of Chinese enterprises. For example, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , which is building an integrated industrial chain, continuously increasing R & D investment, multi category expansion and moving forward to a first-class chemical new material company with global operation, has made a synchronous breakthrough in original replacement, China and foreign countries go hand in hand, and is aiming at the top five Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) in the global tire industry in 2030, with high starting point, high standard Build Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) and Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) of world-class refineries with high efficiency.
We focus on the leaders in various sub sectors that are still underestimated, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , the leader in the tire industry Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , and Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) and Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) Private refining giants ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ), Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) and Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) in the field of compound fertilizer, rubber additives Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) , viscose staple fiber Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , vitamin Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , coal chemical industry Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , new coal chemical industry Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , pesticide Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , and glyphosate Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) The leader in the field of inorganic new materials Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , the leader in satellite chemistry, sweetener Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) , plant growth regulator Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002749) , titanium dioxide Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , spandex and adipic acid Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) , organic fine chemicals Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , dicamba enterprise Jiangsu Changqing Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002391) , etc.
The U.S. Department of Commerce issued a statement on May 15, 2020 local time, saying that the strategic position of semiconductor materials has become increasingly prominent by comprehensively restricting Huawei's purchase of semiconductors produced with U.S. software and technology. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Jingrui shares, Changzhou Tronly New Electronic Materials Co.Ltd(300429) , Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) , Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) , Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp.Ltd(600378) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) and other enterprises. In addition, we hope that the new materials will continue to expand continuously, and have strong technical content of polymer anti-aging leader Rianlon Corporation(300596) , thermoplastic elastomer head Shandong Dawn Polymer Co.Ltd(002838) , brine extraction lithium technology leader Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi'An(300487) .
Key target information tracking
[ Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the price of pure MDI was 20150 yuan / ton on December 10, compared with - 850 yuan / ton on December 3; The price of polymerized MDI was 18800 yuan / ton, up from + 525 yuan / ton on December 3. According to the official website of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , on December 8, the environmental impact report of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 200000 t / a maleic anhydride project was publicized before approval. According to WeChat official account of Wanhua micro vision, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) bio based TPU product WHT-ECO13595 was awarded the UL green environment verification certificate.
[ Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) ] according to Bloomberg, the FBX index from China to the West US port this week was US $14825 / feu, up 1.01% month on week; The FBX index from China to Meidong port was USD 16772 / feu, up 0.84% month on week; The FBX index from China to Europe was $14345 / feu, down 0.16% from last week. According to the official account of WeChat commercial, WeChat Bell Awards December 4, 2021 annual awards for China's auto parts industry. Linglong's brand Atlas batmana51 has won the "mass production · chassis Excellence Award", and has become the only award-winning enterprise in the tire industry for two consecutive years
[ Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) ] according to the information of WeChat official account of Sai Lun group, in December 10th, guided by the torch center of the national information center and the Ministry of science and technology, the Qingdao Municipal People's government, Shandong science and technology department and Shandong Provincial Academy of industry and Commerce hosted the Qingdao Innovation Conference, "Qingdao innovation and technology innovation", which was held by Qingdao science and Technology Bureau and Guoxin double innovation industry group. At the press conference, liquid gold tire, the latest epoch-making tire product developed by Sailun group, was unveiled, which was also the first product launched globally on the "Shanhai Chuang" platform of Qingdao Innovation Festival.
[ Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) ] on December 8, the company issued an announcement on the resignation of senior managers of the company. Due to job adjustment, Mr. Liu bingbao applied to resign from the post of deputy general manager of the company. After resigning the above post, Mr. Liu bingbao still worked in the company. As of the disclosure date of this announcement, Mr. Liu bingbao did not directly hold the shares of the company, but indirectly held 1.2 million shares of the company through Qingdao senbaolin enterprise information consulting management center (limited partnership), accounting for 0.18% of the total share capital of the company.
[ Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the inventory of polyester filament on December 9 was 19.7 days, a month on month increase of + 0.28 days; PTA1's inventory on February 10 was 3.321 million tons, a month on month increase of - 23000 tons. On December 10, the price of polyester filament FDY was 7400 yuan / ton, compared with - 50 yuan / ton on December 3; On December 10, PTA price was 4640 yuan / ton, up from + 235 yuan / ton on December 3. According to Hengli Group's official account of WeChat public, in December 8th, the world brand laboratory (WorldBrandLab) released the list of the top 500 world brands in 2021. Hengli brand replaces the top 500 of the world brand, ranking 379th in the total list, becoming the first in the world "petrochemical and textile" industry.
[ Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ] on December 10, the company issued an announcement that the controlling shareholder's share increase reached 1%. On December 8, 2021, the company received the notification letter on share increase sent by the controlling shareholder Rongsheng holdings, and learned that it had increased the company's shares by a total of 72.3513 million shares through centralized trading at the stock exchange from October 26, 2018 to December 8, 2021, reaching 1%.
[ Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ] according to Sheng Hong Group official account of WeChat public, in December 8th, the world brand laboratory (WorldBrandLab) released the list of the top 500 world brands in 2021. Sheng Hong Group ranked first in the 399th place.
[ Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ] according to WeChat public official account of Hengyi group, in December 6th, the China Construction Enterprise Management Association issued the decision to commend the National Quality Engineering Award of 2020-2021. Hengyi (Brunei) PMB petrochemical project won the National Gold Award for high quality engineering in 2020-2021, which is the highest honor in the field of national engineering construction.
[ Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ] no update information yet.
[ Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ] according to WeChat group WeChat official account, in December 9th, 2021 real economic impact TOP300 list was released, and Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ranked again in the 249 place.
[ Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the price of monoammonium phosphate this week was 3083.33 yuan / ton, down 71.67 yuan / ton month on month; The price of compound fertilizer was 3272.50 yuan / ton, down 5.00 yuan / ton month on month.
[ Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) ] [ Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) ] has no update information.
[ Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ] on December 8, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 4.577 billion-5.722 billion, an increase of 100% - 150% over the same period of the previous year.
[ Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of accelerator M was 15500 yuan / ton on December 10, compared with - 2250 yuan / ton on December 3; The average price of accelerator NS was 26750 yuan / ton, from December 3 to 2500 yuan / ton; The average price of accelerator TMTD was 20000 yuan / ton, compared with December 3 - 2500 yuan / ton.
[ Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co.Ltd(002381) ] [ Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ] has no update information.
[ Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) ] according to wind, on December 10, the 40d of spandex was 70500 yuan / ton, down 2000 yuan / ton month on month.
[ Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) ] according to wind, on December 10, 2021, life support
