“3060 double carbon” has a far-reaching impact on the transformation and development of the construction industry. China’s carbon dioxide emissions will reach the peak by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The “3060 double carbon” goal runs through the whole process and all aspects of China’s economic and social development. The “3060 double carbon” target has a great impact on high energy consumption and high emission industries, and then affects the input and output of relevant industries. The construction industry is a major energy consumption and emission emitter. In 2018, the whole process of construction carbon emission accounted for 51.3% and energy consumption accounted for 46.5%. Energy conservation and emission reduction in the construction field has become a key link for China to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization. The state has issued a number of policies to encourage the low-carbon transformation of the construction industry, build a low-carbon green city, develop green energy-saving buildings, and solidly promote the energy conservation and emission reduction of the construction industry. The transformation and development of the construction industry is imperative.
The development of the industry has entered the “new normal” and the concentration of “national advance and people retreat” has increased. Under the background of “3060 double carbon”, the era of large-scale infrastructure construction is gone, and infrastructure investment will enter the “new normal” of low growth. The growth rate of infrastructure investment from 2020 to October 2021 will be 3.41% and 0.72% respectively. It is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment will remain low in the future, and the infrastructure investment structure will be optimized, the proportion of traditional infrastructure will decline, and the proportion of new infrastructure will increase. The investment in real estate development is not optimistic. It is expected that the indicators of real estate investment, new construction and sales may deteriorate in 2022. The two “engines” of the development of the construction industry – infrastructure investment and real estate investment “stalled”. The development of the construction industry is facing challenges. The industry as a whole shows a trend of “national advance and people retreat” and increased concentration. The advantages of central construction enterprises and regional construction state-owned enterprises are obvious and become the main beneficiaries of the industry’s development.
Green buildings are expected to rise, and pumped storage has broad prospects. In 2021, China’s macro policy will be stable and relatively “restrained” in the implementation process, which has affected the annual economic growth, but reserved space for the policy in 2022. Stable growth, counter cyclical adjustment and cross cyclical adjustment may become the key words of macro policy in 2022. At the same time, China will introduce industrial policies such as green building, energy conservation and emission reduction and green electric energy storage in combination with the “3060 double carbon” goal, especially BIPV and pumped storage, which are highly related to the construction industry, will receive strong policy support. Bivp has a broad market space. China has 80 billion square meters of stock buildings, and 100 million square meters of daylighting roof area is added every year. With strong policy support, BIPV is expected to drive into the “fast lane”. At the same time, the change of energy structure urgently needs to increase the degree of storage capacity. The installed capacity of pumped storage station is expected to reach 305 million KW by 2035, and the pumped storage capacity is expected to grow nine times in the next 15 years.
The industry actively embraces the “new economy” and “construction +” contributes to long-term growth. The differentiation of the construction industry is becoming more and more obvious, the concentration of “national advance and people retreat” has increased, the operation of central construction enterprises and local construction state-owned enterprises is getting better, the orders and performance resonate, and the growth is good. At the same time, central construction enterprises and local state-owned construction enterprises actively embrace the “new economy”, expand the whole industrial chain and upstream and downstream, and constantly consolidate their competitive advantage and industry position. The differentiation of private construction enterprises is intensified, the steel structure and engineering consulting are relatively good, and the pressure of garden engineering and decoration operation is prominent. Private construction enterprises actively plan transformation and explore the “construction +” business model. The goal of “3060 double carbon” drives industry reform and promotes industry transformation and upgrading. “Construction +” has become the development trend of the industry. The demand for prefabricated buildings, BIPV, new energy investment and operation and pumped storage construction has brought new impetus to the development of construction enterprises and helped the long-term growth and valuation improvement of the industry.
Investment suggestions: “construction +” to improve the valuation space, “four main lines” to grasp the industry opportunities. In 2022, the construction industry will actively embrace the “new economy” and actively integrate into the “double carbon” national strategy, and green buildings are expected to rise. At present, steady growth, counter cyclical regulation and cross cyclical regulation are “warming up”, and the construction industry is expected to usher in dual development opportunities of policy driven and “construction +”. We believe that the construction industry has not only a “white horse” with good performance and extremely low valuation, but also a “dark horse” with “building +” layout and standing at the market outlet. The overall trend of the industry is good, with fundamental support and policy catalysis, and “building +” can improve the valuation space. It is an industry with “advance, attack and retreat” and is optimistic about the overall trend of the construction industry in 2022. On the configuration mainline, We propose to actively lay out the “construction +” new business sector around the “two new and one heavy” infrastructure leaders and the “double carbon” background: (1) the “two new and one heavy” infrastructure leaders are recommended, including China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) central construction enterprises, Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) regional infrastructure leaders, urban rail design leaders Guangzhou Metro Design & Research Institute Co.Ltd(003013) and shock absorption leaders Zhejiang Tiantie Industry Co.Ltd(300587) . (2) Pumped storage beneficiary companies mainly recommend Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering Company Ltd(002060) and Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) . (3) prefabricated buildings, it is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) . (4) new power construction, recommend Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) leader of power construction and operation on the user side, power intelligent inspection of high-quality private enterprises Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Tus-Design Group Co.Ltd(300500) , Shenzhen Zhongzhuang Construction Group Co.Ltd(002822) layout of BIPV and Dongzhu Ecological Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603359) layout of carbon sink 。
Risk tip: the policy is not as expected, “construction +” progress is slow, the decline of fixed asset investment, the adjustment of real estate market, market fluctuation, performance decline and other risks.
