1、 This week’s review and topic:
This week, Shenwan pharmaceutical index rose 1.08%, ranking 11th in the whole industry, losing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and outperforming the gem index. This week, we write on the key points of this year’s 2022 annual strategy report, “core five, asking for love and understanding, advanced manufacturing + innovation and upgrading.”
2、 Recent resumption:
The overall medical index performed well this week. The specific performance is as follows: first, the overall rhythm is low in the front and high in the back. Second, in terms of style, the size resonance from the individual stocks cut in the first half of the week to the second half of the week has changed with the previous period of time. From the weekly dimension, it focuses more on the change of undervalued value. Third, in the sub field, traditional Chinese medicine and pharmacies performed better in the weekly dimension, and consumer medicine was more prominent in the second half of the week. Behind this performance, we think the reasons are as follows: first, the consumption sector represented by Baijiu has continued to show its logic spillover. Second, the continuous appreciation of RMB will lead to the continuous inflow of foreign capital in the near future, and bottom medicine will also benefit. Third, the market has gradually identified the bottom medicine, and the willingness to allocate is gradually strengthening, but the entanglement points are “whether the structural valuation is cheap”, “whether the structural position concentration has been fully released”, “after several years of high prosperity, the baptism of Longma values, and the maladjustment to the selection of individual stock market under the transitional equilibrium style”, Relatively confident about the change of undervalued value. Fourth, the big ticket market started on Thursday, but the small ticket also performed well. In fact, this is also an expression of the market’s adaptation to the “style equalization” in the pharmaceutical rebalancing stage. There are no major events this week. Finally, there is no change in the grand view. Medicine has entered the long-term configuration range, and the bottom is patient and upward. In the first half of 2022, the bottom-up stock selection strategy relying on the track rather than the track should be the main tone.
3、 Plate view:
1. Thinking from the perspective of several years: if pharmaceutical investment has paid more attention to “selecting the head company of the main track and enjoying valuation expansion” in the past 3-4 years, it should pay more attention to “individual stock cost performance under valuation digestion” this year. Although they are structural opportunities, their expressions are different. Facing the short-term weakness of medicine, we have stretched our eyes. What is the essence of the long-term growth of the pharmaceutical industry? It is the long-term pull of just demand for medicine and the long-term pull of health consumption upgrading, and the current demand satisfaction and penetration rate are very low, which is the most long-term logic of medicine. However, because of people’s concerns about the reform policy of the payment end, people seem to ignore this essence. The payment end policy will not be the long-term logic restriction of a rigid industry, which is at most a medium-term and short-term interference item. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic. GDP growth is in the downward stage, the economic structure continues to adjust, and China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) industry is in the early stage of growth, there is a reverse scissors gap, and the comparative advantage is strengthened. With the release of the population data of Qipu, China’s population structure is undergoing great changes. In the future, the development logic of many industries driven by the huge demographic dividend will face great changes. The market will pay more and more attention to and look for industries with comparative advantages of incremental attributes, Medicine is the industry with long logical cycle and strong certainty (aging intensifies the expansion of just needed medicine and the upgrading of health consumption intensifies the penetration of consumer medicine). In the future, the allocation of funds for consumer medicine will strengthen the allocation of medicine from the medium and long-term dimensions, resulting in the improvement of the overall water level of medicine, which is optimistic for a long time. The long-term 4 + X strategic thinking remains unchanged: the upgrading of medical science and technology, the upgrading of medical consumption, the upgrading of pharmaceutical manufacturing and the upgrading of medical model Wait.
2. In the short and medium term, the main tone of this year’s medicine is to digest the valuation. The apparent reasons are that it is not dominant compared with other industry sectors and the expected interference brought by the policy. However, under its influence, this year’s medicine is difficult to be as powerful as in previous years. Under the main tone, some oversold stocks or periodic layout opportunities exist, At the same time, the expected rate of return may need to be appropriately reduced. Next, if you think that the current medicine is the bottom of extreme pessimism, what about the future layout of medicine? Of course, we are very concerned about the track opportunities with sustained excellent performance, but it is difficult to achieve in the current market environment. The chips of individual stocks with excellent fundamentals are highly concentrated and expected to be relatively sufficient. Unless the water level of the pharmaceutical industry rises systematically, it is only a high shock. At this time, there are actually two ideas: of course, the big principle is to avoid policies, or to avoid poor policy expectations, and then: first, low-level assets, clean chips, low valuation and changes, and the consideration of fundamental factors is relatively weakened. Second, select “specialization and innovation”. Third, from a long-term perspective, gradually configure the “high boom main line” of “transaction clearing and relative valuation clearing”. Overall, bottom-up is the best policy at present.
3. Configuration idea:
Manufacturing upgrade: (1) biomedical upstream ( Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) , Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) ) (2) differentiated cdmo ( Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) , Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) ) (3) API systematic upgrade ( Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) ) (4) injection export ( Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) ) (5) other specialized and special new ( Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) ).
Innovation Upgrading: (1) CGT ( Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Northland) (2) platform innovation recovery ( Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) ) (3) innovation internationalization ( Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ) (4) nuclear medicine ( Yantai Dongcheng Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002675) ).
Consumption upgrading: (1) vaccines: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc(688319) ; (2) ophthalmology: Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300573) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) ; (3) medical services: Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) , Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Inkon Life Technology Co.Ltd(300143) , Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002390) ; (4) brand traditional Chinese medicine: Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) .
Continuous repair of core assets: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) .
Other long-term tracking and promising targets are: Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) {{ Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) { Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) {{605186186} Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) { Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) {{000000538} {{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{605186186186186186} {{605186186186} {{{{{605186186186} {{{605186186186186} {{000403403} {{000403403} {{{000403403} {{300403403403403403} {{{{{{0004031} {{{000400841}} {{{{{000000000030303030303third} {{{{{{{{ Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) } {{{{{00051 Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600998) Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Joincare Pharmaceutical Group Industry Co.Ltd(600380) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Guangzhou Jet Bio-Filtration Co.Ltd(688026) , Shanghai Kindly Enterprises Development Group Co.Ltd(603987) , etc.
Risk tips: 1) negative policies continue to exceed expectations; 2) The growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; 3) There may be errors in assumptions or estimates
