Key events of this week: 1) the central economic work conference is held: next year, the keynote of economic work is “stability first and seeking progress while stability”, and the policy force should be advanced appropriately; In terms of real estate, the meeting stressed that under the positioning of adhering to the principle of housing without speculation, we should support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable purchase needs of buyers, and promote the virtuous cycle of the real estate industry by “implementing policies for the city”. 2) Comprehensive RRR reduction: on December 6, the central bank announced that it would reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, releasing long-term funds of 1.2 trillion. We believe that the deep-seated reason for the comprehensive RRR reduction is the increasing downward pressure on the economy. This RRR reduction aims to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, guide financial institutions to increase their support for the real economy, and promote the reduction of social comprehensive financing costs. 3) Home improvement to the countryside is expected to stimulate terminal demand: on December 8, the regular policy briefing of the State Council proposed to promote the upgrading of consumption echelons of rural residents. We will encourage qualified areas to carry out the renewal of rural household appliances, and implement subsidies for furniture and home improvement and a new round of automobile to the countryside. The home decoration to the countryside is expected to stimulate terminal demand, promote the channels of consumer building materials enterprises to further sink to the countryside and optimize the business structure.
This week’s view: it is suggested to pay attention to the consumer building materials sector that is expected to be repaired in pessimistic expectation, and the glass sector that prices continue to pick up. The prosperity of carbon fiber / quartz sand / glass fiber continues and continues to be recommended; The bad credit of the real estate chain has been exhausted, and the price rise has gradually landed / the price of raw materials has fallen. Under the condition of the expected marginal improvement of the real estate, the brand building materials have gradually entered the layout time point, and the leading certainty is high; The bottom price of glass plate rebounded and continued to pick up, focusing on the expansion of new categories such as photovoltaic, electronics and pharmaceutical glass; The expected marginal improvement of real estate + the acceleration of special bond issuance is expected to support the cement demand. At present, the valuation of the cement sector is cost-effective, and the leader with volume increase logic is preferred; The cost side of the water reducing agent sector is declining rapidly, and the leader with new category expansion logic is preferred. 1) For the carbon fiber industry, driven by the demand of new energy fields such as wind, light and hydrogen, and the improvement of carbon fiber penetration, the demand for carbon fiber is expected to continue to grow rapidly. Chinese enterprises dominate the new production capacity, the expansion of industrial production capacity is expected to accelerate, and the localization rate is expected to accelerate. Industry leading companies are expected to rapidly expand their scale, reduce costs, form competitive advantages, and usher in the golden era of development. Focus on Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) and actively pay attention to Jilin Carbon Valley, Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) , Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) . 2) For consumer building materials, on the one hand, the overall reduction of reserve requirements has been implemented, the expectation of steady growth has been strengthened, and the end of real estate policy has been realized; Evergrande materially breaches the contract or indicates that short-term bad credit has been exhausted; Recently, the financing end of the real estate industry has improved significantly, and the pessimistic expectation of the real estate chain is expected to continue to repair. On the other hand, with the gradual implementation of price increases and the decline of raw material prices, we judge that the profitability of consumer building materials is expected to gradually improve, and the industry will gradually enter the layout time point. Consumer building materials leaders have advantages in brand / Channel / cost / capital. They have the ability to cross the cycle in terms of competitiveness and growth, focusing on leading enterprises Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) , Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) . 3) For the glass industry, prices continue to pick up this week. Under the “guaranteed delivery” of real estate, the toughness of glass demand is expected to be maintained. On the supply side, considering the current high capacity utilization rate of the industry, the subsequent new capacity is limited; In addition, according to the data of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) and Industrial Glass Association, in the production line, the production capacity with kiln age of 8-10 years / more accounts for 14.1% / 14.5% respectively, and the cold repair of the old production line may lead to supply contraction. At present, the price and cost of glass are close. Under the high cost of raw materials / energy, manufacturers are willing to support the price, and the glass price is expected to continue to pick up. Focus on the medium and long-term growth brought by various types of glass (photovoltaic, electronic, pharmaceutical glass, etc.); focus on Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , and suggest paying attention to Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Xinyi Glass, Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) Wait. 4) For the quartz glass industry, benefiting from the growth of photovoltaic installed capacity / the transformation of photovoltaic cells from p-type to n-type, the demand for high-purity quartz sand is growing rapidly, the supply side is newly added or limited, and the price of quartz sand is expected to rise steadily; The demand for semiconductors and military quartz materials is booming, and the barriers to qualification certification are high. Leading enterprises are expected to continue to increase the market share, and Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) and Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) are mainly recommended. 5) For the glass fiber industry, the roving price is slightly loose this week, mainly due to the price reduction of 100 yuan / ton by some manufacturers, which is relatively small, and the application field is low-end. We think it is only a short-term and local phenomenon. We expect that the new production capacity of roving in 21q4-22 will be limited to 260000 tons, and the demand will continue to improve. Under the low inventory level, the high outlook of roving is expected to continue. The price of electronic yarn has corrected this week, which we believe is mainly due to the weakening of PCB demand. In fact, the price of electronic yarn has risen more in this cycle, which has exceeded the highest price of electronic yarn in the previous cycle. It is normal to make a correction. We expect that in 21q4-22, the new production capacity of electronic yarn will be about 150000 tons, and there will still be new production at the supply end. It does not rule out that the subsequent electronic yarn prices will still be loose, but it is expected that the overall production capacity will remain at a good level in 22 years. Focus on China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) . 6) It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) : the company is the leader in the production and export of PVC flooring, and the growth elasticity of production capacity will be highlighted in the future. Although in the early stage, due to the rise of raw material prices, exchange rate and shipping pressure, the profit is under pressure, but at present, the export chain benefits from a high outlook and the sea freight decreases, the enterprise gradually adjusts the price, the cost side also drops, and the profit is expected to be gradually repaired. 7) For the cement industry, the marginal relaxation at the real estate financing end may lead to the improvement of market expectations. With the addition of the recent acceleration of special bond issuance, the cement demand is expected to be supported; In addition, the role of policy regulation of coal price has been fully demonstrated. When the cement price center is expected to remain high, the cost pressure of enterprises is expected to ease month on month. We continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair opportunities of the cement sector, focusing on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , and it is suggested to focus on Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) and China building materials. 8) For the water reducing agent industry, the price of raw material ethylene oxide has dropped by about 25% from a higher point, and there is still a possibility of decline; By the end of September, the centralized price increase of major manufacturers is expected to be gradually implemented, and the industry profit is expected to improve. Leading companies have obvious competitive advantages, and new products benefit from the improvement of downstream demand, which is expected to maintain high growth. It is mainly recommended Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) .
Considering that electricity is still limited in some areas and enterprises are actively carrying out peak shifting production, the cement price is expected to decline steadily, but the overall price center will remain high. The subsequent real estate is expected to improve, and the gradual acceleration of the issuance of special bonds is expected to support the demand. The role of policy regulation of coal prices has been reflected, and the cost pressure of enterprises is expected to be relieved. We continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair opportunities of the cement sector. This week, the national cement market price fell 2.2% month on month. The price drop areas are mainly concentrated in Tianjin, Liaoning, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Chongqing and Sichuan, with a range of 10-50 yuan / ton. In the first ten days of December, the price of China’s cement market continued to decline. On the one hand, in the final demand period, the downstream demand was weak, and the shipment volume of enterprises remained at the level of 60-80%. The production of cement enterprises in southern China was normal and the inventory was running at a high level. In order to reduce the inventory pressure, the price was continuously reduced with preferential policies; On the other hand, in order to clear the cement produced at high cost in the early stage before the end of the market, cement enterprises in northern China have to adopt the price reduction strategy. In view of the poor relationship between market supply and demand and the relatively high cement prices in some regions, the prices will continue to weaken in the later stage. The national storage capacity ratio was 65.8%, with a month on week ratio of -0.9pct, a year-on-year increase of + 11.9pct; The shipment rate was 56.3%, with a chain comparison of -1.9pct and a year-on-year comparison of -17.8pct. We believe that the combination policy regulation of “price limit + production increase” of coal has gradually played a role in recent years. Enterprises actively carry out peak shifting production, Q4 price center is expected to remain high, and the cost pressure is expected to be relieved. Looking forward to next year, although the overall real estate demand may be under pressure, the margin has improved, and with the development of infrastructure, the overall demand toughness will remain; In addition, the coal price is expected to fall, and the enterprise profit toughness is expected to be maintained. We are still optimistic about the further repair of the plate. It is recommended to focus on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , and it is recommended to focus on Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) , and China building materials.
Glass fiber: the high prosperity of the industry is expected to continue, and the “dual control of energy consumption” helps to optimize the industry pattern. We expect that the new capacity of the industry from 21q4 to 22 will be very limited, with about 26000 / 150000 tons of roving / electronic yarn respectively. Moreover, the production line is put into operation more dispersed. We expect the marginal new capacity of 21q4-22q4 to be 7.1/2.9/1.3/1.3/0 MT / quarter respectively, with a relatively mild impact. We expect that in the 21st / 22nd year, the global effective production capacity of glass fiber will be 8.79/9.41 million tons, the demand will be 8.91/9.43 million tons, the supply and demand pattern will be better, the inventory will be low, and the price boom is expected to continue. The energy cost of glass fiber accounts for about 20%, and the energy consumption is still high. Under the dual control of energy consumption, it is more difficult to increase the new capacity of the industry, and the uncertainty of landing rhythm increases. We believe that the new production capacity will still be dominated by leading enterprises, and the industry pattern is expected to continue to be optimized. The leader has core competitiveness such as cost and technology, and the continuous upgrading of product structure will hedge the periodicity to a certain extent. The competitiveness of the leader in the glass fiber industry is significantly enhanced whether from the perspective of increasing market share or continuous decline in cost. We expect that the profit of the bottom leader in the next round is expected to increase significantly compared with history. We continue to focus on recommending the glass fiber leader China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) . We also recommend Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) (diaphragm price starts the upward cycle, wind power is expected to hit the bottom and rise, glass fiber profit is expected to exceed expectations, and continue to be optimistic about the future growth sustainability of the three plates), Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) (capacity expansion planning is clear, growth is gradually realized, industrial chain integration has strong risk resistance), Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
At present, brand building materials are gradually entering the layout time point. We believe that the current leading industries such as gypsum board, waterproof, ceramic tile and coating have high configuration value. At the industry level, we believe that the completion end is stronger than the commencement end. In terms of segmentation, the industry leaders with low market share or category expansion logic deserve special attention. Even if the overall demand of the industry is under pressure, the anti periodicity of the leaders will be significantly better than that of the industry. 1) Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) : gypsum board landscape and high-end resonance, waterproof and keel provide growth; The periodic attribute is expected to weaken significantly; The current valuation is very cost-effective; In the past, the market’s valuation of the company mainly referred to the cyclical stocks with low ceiling. With the gradual implementation of the strategy of one body and two wings and global layout, the growth is prominent, and the valuation space is expected to be opened. We continue to focus on recommendation. 2) The waterproof industry has a large long-term demand space, and the photovoltaic roof system also brings new increment. At present, the industry pattern is relatively clearer, and the leader has also built strong competitive barriers. With the help of channel advantages, leading enterprises expand in multiple categories, Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) extend their business to the fields of coatings / thermal insulation materials, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) cut into the blue ocean market of building vibration reduction and isolation, and leading enterprises fully extend their business lines to create new growth points and enhance anti periodicity. Focus on Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , and pay attention to Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) . 3) Ceramic tiles ( Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) ): large industries and small companies, leading enterprises have a lot of room to improve their market share; the driving factors are brands, channels and costs; we believe that companies with an income of 10-20 billion are expected to appear in the industry in the next 2-3 years. The current valuation has fully reflected the sad expectation, but the actual fundamentals are not poor, so Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) (the product price has been adjusted by 5% since October 1) and Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) (five of the seven production lines temporarily shut down in the early stage have resumed production). 4) in the hardware industry, we continue to recommend Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) . The core advantage of strong and strong lies in the obvious comprehensive supply capacity and service advantages caused by direct sales channels and information construction; in the future, reuse channels to realize “asset light” Category expansion to build a platform and integrated leader. The short-term market is worried that the tightening of real estate funds will affect the company’s cash flow. In fact, small enterprises are more affected, and the advantages of leading enterprises are expected to continue to play. 5) The C-end of the coating industry has strong brand and channel strength, and the leading enterprises have been fed back by the b-end, which we believe will continue to deepen. The cash flow / cost of short-term coating leading enterprises is affected by the tightening of real estate funds / the rise of raw material prices, which increases the operating pressure, but the high growth / continuous improvement trend of leading enterprises remains unchanged. It is recommended to Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) . 6) In the pipe industry, we recommend Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) (looking at the improvement of sales and management, high valuation and cost performance), Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) (looking at the business development of waterproof and water purification), and we suggest paying attention to China Liansu. 7) Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) : the company is the first stock to be listed in the door and lock. The C-end has strong brand and channel power, and the subsequent capacity expansion helps to open the b-end market space; And the company relies on dealers to complete installation and service, with excellent cash flow level; In the follow-up, wooden doors, electronic locks and other products continue to make great efforts, with key recommendations.
The continuous recommendation demand in the field of new materials is concentrated in the quartz material and carbon fiber industries with strong long-term growth such as military industry, semiconductor and photovoltaic, and the leaders Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) , Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) with strong technical and cost advantages are recommended. Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) recommended logic: look at the semiconductor and photovoltaic fields. 1) High demand for semiconductors + diffusion and etching qualification certification of core equipment manufacturers, looking forward to large-scale performance. 2) High demand for high-purity sand in photovoltaic field + domestic substitution + capacity release resonance, which is expected to usher in a simultaneous rise in volume and price. In addition, the carbon fiber industry is driven by the demand for new energy such as wind power / photovoltaic / hydrogen energy, and the growth rate of civil market demand is accelerated; At the same time, with the technology maturity, cost reduction and rapid production expansion of China’s leading enterprises, the localization rate of carbon fiber is expected to continue to improve. The industry continues to prosper, and the leading carbon fiber company Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) is recommended.
Glass toughness still exists, and attention is paid to the development of multi category glass. The average price of building white glass this weekend was 2179 yuan / ton (mom + 71, yoy + 178); the inventory was 29.58 million weight boxes (Mom – 229, yoy + 246); the inventory days were 10.95 days (Mom – 0.43, yoy + 0.84); the utilization rate of glass capacity at the weekend was 73.48% (Mom – 0.30%, yoy + 2.65%); the capacity of glass under production at the weekend was 101.772 million weight boxes (from – 420 last week to + 3840 on a year-on-year basis). This week, the overall trend of the glass spot market continues the good trend in the early stage, the inventories of production enterprises continue to be reduced, the market transaction prices rise month on month, and the market sentiment has also improved to a certain extent. On the whole, the orders of downstream processing enterprises remain at the previous level, there is still a certain amount of catch-up demand in the north and a certain amount in the south Market demand remained at a good level. The quotations of manufacturers are also rising continuously, especially in East China, central China and South China. In addition, the cold repair of production lines in some areas also reduces the supply of local and surrounding areas. We believe that under the “guaranteed delivery” of the real estate, the toughness of glass demand is expected to be maintained. On the supply side, considering the high capacity utilization rate of the industry, the subsequent new capacity is limited; In addition, at present, in the production line, the production capacity with kiln age of 8-10 years / more accounts for 14.1% / 14.5% respectively. The cold repair of the old production line may lead to supply contraction. At present, the price and cost of glass are close. Under the high cost of raw materials / energy, manufacturers are willing to support the price, and the glass price is expected to continue to pick up. Focus on the medium and long-term growth brought by various types of glass (photovoltaic, electronic, pharmaceutical glass, etc.). Continue to focus on Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , and it is recommended to focus on Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Xinyi Glass, Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , etc.
Other undervalued sectors: it is recommended to pay attention to the refractory leader Beijing Lier High-Temperature Materials Co.Ltd(002392) , and continue to focus on recommendation
