From a financial perspective, what signals will the central economic work conference release?
In general, the central economic conference continued the general tone of the previous Politburo meeting. In 2022, the economy will focus on "stable growth", and the infrastructure development is expected to speed up under the "moderately ahead of infrastructure investment", and the real estate will re mention the "urban policies" under the tone of "real estate, housing and non speculation", and the policy will further "maintain stability". Wide credit continues, social finance is expected to stabilize and recover, and is optimistic about the small credit peak in Q1 next year, and the banking sector is expected to usher in restlessness in spring; The monetary environment will remain relatively loose, the brokerage sector will maintain a high boom, the policy side is expected to continue to catalyze, and continue to be optimistic about the performance of the sector.
1. Macroeconomic: face up to "pressure" and focus on "stability". The meeting first mentioned that "China's economic development faces the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations". Next year, at the important node of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, we should "strive to stabilize the macroeconomic market, keep the economic operation within a reasonable range, maintain the overall social stability, and welcome the victory of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China". On the whole, under the current downward pressure of the economy, Next year's economic work should be steady and seek progress while maintaining stability.
2. Fiscal policy: under the "positive" tone, it is expected to "move forward appropriately". The proactive fiscal policy should improve its efficiency and continue the previous tone. However, the meeting added that "all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced" and "moderately advance infrastructure investment". Compared with the slow pace of local fiscal force this year, Next year, the issuance of local bonds is expected to be advanced, and the development of infrastructure is expected to be accelerated.
3. Monetary policy: "flexible and appropriate", coordinated and linked. The meeting required that "prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate". The addition of "flexible and appropriate" here is the same as that of the Politburo meeting on December 6, but it was not mentioned in the Politburo meetings on April 30 and July 30. In combination with the implementation of the RRR reduction this week, the monetary policy has actually been marginal "loose". Moreover, fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated and linked, and cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined. It is expected to introduce fiscal + monetary combination in the future.
4. Real estate: the policy further "maintains stability". Under the tone of "no speculation in housing and housing", the meeting proposed to "support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers", "Promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry by implementing policies for the city" (Revisiting "implementing policies for the city"), it is expected that the real estate policy will further correct the deviation and maintain stability, give priority to meeting the reasonable demand, and combine with the fact that the medium and long-term loans of residents have increased year-on-year in recent two months. It is expected that the investment of mortgage loans will remain stable next year.
5. Fully implement the stock issuance registration system. The economic work conference mentioned the full implementation of the stock issuance registration system. The capital market reform with the registration system as the core is expected to accelerate in 2022. It is expected to promote the registration system reform of the main board of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange and increase the proportion of direct financing on the basis of summarizing the experience of the registration system reform of science and innovation board, gem and Beijing stock exchange. For securities companies, the contribution of investment banking revenue is expected to increase, and the head securities companies have more significant advantages in projects and talent reserves, and the policy side is expected to continue to benefit from the dividend of registration system reform.
Regular data tracking: 1) interbank certificates of deposit: A. volume: according to wind data, the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit this week was 413.21 billion yuan, an increase of 133.640 billion yuan over last week; Since December, the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit has been 579.2 billion yuan, with a month on month decrease of 147.080 billion yuan; B. Price: the issuing interest rate of interbank certificates of deposit this week was 2.72%, down 1bps from last week; So far this month, the issue interest rate is 2.72%. 2) Trading volume: the average daily turnover of stocks this week was 120.692 billion yuan, an increase of 33.775 billion yuan over last week. 3) Liangrong: the balance of Liangrong was 1842.329.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.20% over last week. 4) Fund issuance: this week, non monetary funds issued 84.098 billion shares, an increase of 12.274 billion over last week. 5) Bill interest rate: the 3-month discount rate of bank notes of large state-owned banks + joint-stock banks this week was 0.64%, down 65bps from last week; Since this month, the interest rate has been 0.88%, down 92bps month on month. The three-month bank note discount rate of urban commercial banks was 1.21%, down 32bps from last week, and the interest rate so far this month is 1.28%, down 77bps from last month. 6) Issuance scale of local government special bonds: 45.851 billion new special bonds were issued this week, a decrease of 209.164 billion month on month compared with last week, and a total of 3.58 trillion yuan has been issued since the beginning of the year (the amount of new special bonds in the whole year was 3.65 trillion yuan).
Risk tip: the risks of real estate enterprises erupt intensively, and the macro-economy is down; The promotion of capital market reform policy is less than expected; The sales of guaranteed products of insurance companies were lower than expected.
