Key investment points
Power coal industry chain: this week (12.3-12.10), the supply and demand of power coal are booming, and the port quotation is stabilizing. The annual price center still maintains a high increase compared with last year. The output is released in an orderly manner, and the inventory is replenished to the normal level. In the future, we will pay attention to the demand changes in the heating season.
Metallurgical coal industry chain: this week, the supply and demand of metallurgical coal were weak, and the price stabilized. The port’s main coking coal was flat in the week, the injection coal stabilized and the output contracted. The demand side is relatively weak, the coke price is flat, and the coke oven operating rate remains low. Steel prices rebounded slightly this week, and the blast furnace operating rate continued to decline. In the future, we will pay attention to the restrictions of the implementation of safety and environmental protection policies on the main origin of coking coal, the impact of energy consumption dual control policies on the operating rate of coking plant and steel plant, the profitability of coking plant, etc.
Equity view: the sector maintained growth this week, but the increase converged. Huolinhe Opencut Coal Industry Corporation Limited Of Inner Mongolia(002128) led the rise sharply, mainly due to strengthening the layout of photovoltaic catalysis. On December 10, the central economic work conference pointed out that the economic work in 2022 should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. All regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy. All parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced. It also stressed that infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance, And the promotion of a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry. We believe that the counter cyclical adjustment policy and the relaxation signal to the real estate are conducive to maintaining the economic operation within a reasonable range and improving the market’s pessimistic expectations on the future demand side. At the same time, the meeting stressed that the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption should not be included in the total energy consumption control, and create conditions to realize the transformation from “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible. The energy consumption of coal includes raw material energy consumption and fuel energy consumption, and raw material energy consumption includes coal chemical industry and other energy consumption with coal as raw material. We believe that the new raw material energy consumption is not included in the total energy consumption control, which is conducive to the development of modern coal chemical industry and other industries. In addition, the economic work conference once again mentioned the status of coal as a basic energy and stressed that the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy. Based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, we should pay attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy. To ensure energy supply, large enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises, should take the lead in ensuring supply and stable prices. From the supply side, there will be a certain amount in 2022, but the relative demand is within a reasonable range. Based on the perspective of energy substitution, the supply elasticity of coal in the future is still limited. At present, the prices of various coal types are stabilizing, the fundamentals are supported, and the plate valuation continues to be repaired. Optimistic about Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) .
Credit point of view: in terms of primary issuance, during the week Jinneng Holding Shanxi Electric Power Co.Ltd(000767) , Shaanxi coal chemical group extended the bookkeeping time and cancelled the issuance. In the secondary market, the industry interest margin is lower than the level before the Yongmei incident. At present, in the continuous repair of coal credit level, coal bonds can sink appropriately, but the duration strategy still needs to be cautious. In addition, coal pan credit varieties can also be concerned.
Risk tips: strong price control; recession; Supply release exceeds expectations; The price of imported coal fell sharply; Warm winter; Other disturbance factors
