Market review this week: SW food and beverage industry index rose by 5.47% as a whole this week, ranking second among all Shenwan industry indexes, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by about 2.33 percentage points in the same period. All segments recorded positive returns, with only meat products and soft drinks outperforming the CSI 300 index. Other liquor sectors rose 15.85% this week, ranking first in the food and beverage industry.
Net inflow of land stock link this week: from December 6 to December 10, land stock link had a total net inflow of 48.834 billion yuan. Among them, the net inflow of food and beverage, non bank finance and banking sector ranks first, and the net outflow of building materials, communication and public utilities sector ranks first. This week, the food and beverage sector had a net inflow of 10.827 billion yuan, ranking first in the Shenwan industry.
Important data tracking: Baijiu plate: Feitian and Pu five price increase compared with last Friday, the 1573 price of the national cellar was unchanged from last Friday. Condiment sector: the price of soybean meal and glass rose this week, and the price of white granulated sugar was the same as last Friday. Beer sector: the prices of barley, glass and aluminum ingots increased this week, and the price of corrugated paper was the same as last Friday. Dairy sector: the price of raw and fresh milk decreased slightly. Meat products: pork prices fell this week.
Industry Week view: Baijiu business upside down, quality plate optimization. Baijiu plate: Baijiu liquor performance is expected to be catalyzed by the December Baijiu conference. Driven sales, the current liquor sales performance is better, the probability of a good start in the first quarter next year, Baijiu Baijiu is expected to continue upward trend. In Baijiu Baijiu, the high-end liquor is highly deterministic, and the second premium Baijiu benefits from the upgrading of the product structure. There will be room for flexibility in the future. At the same time, the demand for liquor leaders in some regions has recovered, with great growth elasticity, which can be paid appropriate attention. Subject matter, It is recommended that Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (000568) should be paid attention to in high-end Baijiu, and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (000799) should be paid attention to in the second high-end liquor. Regional liquor can focus on the resilient companies with larger resilience such as Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (000596), Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (603589), Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369). The announcement of product price increase was issued. In order to cope with the pressure of rising costs, the company decided to increase the price of main products by 4% – 10%. The new price will be implemented according to the notice of product price adjustment from December 25, 2021. In the environment of price increase, there are marginal improvement opportunities in the mass food sector, and the profitability may be gradually improved. In the follow-up, we will continue to pay attention to the price increase process of mass products and grasp the marginal inflection point. In terms of subject matter, we can focus on Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) (603288), Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) (600872), Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) (603027), Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (600600), Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (600132), Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) (600887), Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (002557), Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) (603345), etc.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation, product price increase less than expected, channel development less than expected, intensified industry competition, food safety risk and macroeconomic downside risk.
