The production and sales in November were better than expected, with double growth month on month: according to the data released by China Automobile Association on December 10, the national automobile production and sales in November 2021 completed 2.585 million and 2.522 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 10.9% and 8.1% respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3% and 9.1% respectively, and a decrease of 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared with October. From January to November 2021, the national automobile production and sales completed 23.172 million and 23.489 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and 4.5% respectively, and the growth rate decreased by 1.9 percentage points compared with that from January to October.
According to the survey results of “automobile dealer inventory” in November 2021 released by China Automobile Circulation Association, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.07, a year-on-year decrease of 21.5% and a month on month increase of 4.7%. The inventory level rebounded, but the inventory level is still below the warning line. The inventory coefficient of high-end luxury & imported brands was 0.87, up 8.1% month on month; The inventory coefficient of joint venture brands was 1.37, up 4.6% month on month; The inventory coefficient of independent brands was 1.49, up 1.4% month on month. The impact of chip shortage continues to improve. Luxury and joint venture brands are greatly affected in the early stage. At present, the inventory situation has improved significantly.
The production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 400000, and continued to refresh the record: in November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 457000 and 450000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times respectively. Among them, 372000 and 361000 pure electric vehicles were produced and sold respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times respectively; The production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 85000 and 89000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times and 1.7 times respectively; The production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were 212 and 417 respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.4% and 49.3% respectively.
From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 3.023 million and 2.99 million respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year, and the market penetration reached 12.7%. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 2.504 million and 2.466 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8 times and 1.7 times respectively; The production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 517000 and 522000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively; The production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were 10000, with a year-on-year increase of 23.0% and 16% respectively.
Under the background of large demand for new energy points in 2021 and continuous reduction of subsidies in 2022, the impulse effect of production and sales of new energy vehicles is obvious at the end of the year. The production and sales volume has reached a monthly high in November. It is expected that the production and sales volume will continue to rise in December. Therefore, the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 3.3 million, and the probability of market expectation was high, or it could reach about 3.5 million.
The year-on-year decline in passenger car production and sales continued to narrow: in November, the production and sales of passenger cars completed 2.231 million and 2.192 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 12.2% and 9.2% respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% and 4.7% respectively, and the decline narrowed by 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared with October. In terms of segment models, the production and sales of four types of models showed a decline. In terms of month on month, except MPV models, they all achieved positive month on month growth.
From January to November, the production and sales of passenger cars were 23.172 million and 23.489 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and 4.5% respectively, down 1.9 percentage points compared with January to October 2021. Compared with January November 2019, the production and sales of passenger cars increased by 0.5% and 1.5% respectively year-on-year.
In November, the sales of Chinese brand passenger cars were 1022000, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, accounting for 46.6% of the total passenger car sales, an increase of 5.2 percentage points over the same period last year. From January to November 2021, the sales of Chinese brand passenger cars were 8.406 million, with a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, accounting for 44.1% of the total sales of passenger cars, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4 percentage points.
As China’s passenger car market is gradually changing from incremental market to stock market, competition intensifies, and differentiation will become the main theme of independent brands in the future. Brands with weak technology, slow launch of new cars and small scale will be gradually eliminated, and the market share will accelerate to focus on leading enterprises with brand and technical advantages such as great wall and Jili.
The production and sales of commercial vehicles decreased significantly year-on-year, and the impact of emission policy switching continued: in November, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 353000 and 330000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 3.2% and 1.1% respectively; The year-on-year decline was 31.9% and 30.3% respectively, and the decline was 5.0 and 0.6 percentage points higher than that in October. In terms of vehicle types, both passenger cars and trucks showed a decline.
From January to November, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 4.293 million and 4.429 million respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% and 5.3% respectively, an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared with those from January to October. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased by 11.1% and 14.2% respectively year-on-year, and the growth rate of production and sales decreased by 3.7 and 3.7 percentage points respectively from January to October.
In November, the sales volume of heavy trucks was 51000, a year-on-year decrease of 62%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy truck industry reached 1.33 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11%. The sales volume of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) heavy trucks of major auto enterprises in November was 13000, a year-on-year decrease of 64%. The monthly sales achieved five consecutive titles, accounting for more than one quarter of the market in a single month. There are three reasons for the sharp year-on-year decline in the heavy truck market: 1) the demand for logistics heavy trucks is declining. At present, the terminal demand in the logistics market is insufficient due to a series of problems such as more vehicles and less goods, excess capacity, low freight rate and so on; 2) The market demand is overdrawn in advance due to the switching of emission regulations; 3) High inventory: because the terminal orders and demand do not meet expectations, the dealer’s inventory is too high and the sales of new cars are depressed.
Investment suggestion: in November 2021, the chip supply situation in the automotive industry improved, and the production and sales continued to decline year-on-year, but showed an increase month on month, and the automotive production and sales continued to recover. The shortage of chip supply still exists, but there are many highlights in the automotive industry: 1. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have reached a new high, with a monthly sales volume of 450000 and a cumulative sales volume of nearly 3 million; 2. The share of independent brands has increased for 8 consecutive months, and independent brands have continued to rise; 3. Automobile exports maintained rapid growth. We recommend three main lines:
(1) Independent brand leaders with strong new product cycle: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Byd Company Limited(002594) .
(2) Parts enterprises closely related to the electric intelligent industrial chain with high growth certainty: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) .
(3) Heavy truck enterprises with expected performance: Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) .
Risk warning: the price of upstream raw materials rises sharply; Impact of shortage of automotive chips; After the implementation of national six emission regulations, the production and sales of heavy trucks fell sharply in the second half of the year.
