1、 Market Review
The agricultural index rose, with the growth of planting and feed leading. 1. Last week, the Shenwan agricultural index rose 0.34%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.63% and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%. Agricultural performance is slightly lower than that of big cities; 2. The eight sub sectors rose and fell by half. Among the rising sub sectors, the growth of planting industry and feed ranked the top two, 3.57% and 1.84% respectively; 3. The top 10 gainers are concentrated in the planting and feed sector, and the top 10 losers are concentrated in the agricultural comprehensive sector. The top three stocks were Wanxiang Doneed Co.Ltd(600371) , Fujian Tianma Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(603668) and Oriental Ocean.
2、 Investment advice
The relevant policies on the commercialization of genetically modified staple food have been continuously promoted. We focus on the medium and long-term investment opportunities of high-quality leaders in the corn seed industry.
1. Seed industry: pay attention to the implementation of national review standards for genetically modified staple grain varieties, and focus on recommending high-quality leaders in corn seed industry. Since the action plan for the revitalization of seed industry was determined by the central deep reform commission in July 2021, the commercialization policy of genetically modified staple food in China has accelerated. On 12 November and 6 December, The Ministry of agriculture and rural areas has successively organized and formulated the examination and Approval Measures for main crop varieties (Revised Version) and the examination and approval standards for national genetically modified soybean and maize varieties It is expected to see the implementation of the policy and the listing of domestic genetically modified seeds soon. Referring to the development history of the seed industry in the United States, it is considered that the popularization of genetically modified planting of staple food will open the development space of the upstream seed industry, reshape the industry pattern, and significantly increase the market share of high-quality leading enterprises. On the eve of the great changes in the seed industry, we maintained a positive rating, especially the investment opportunities of the high boom corn seed industry. In terms of individual stocks, focus on Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with sustained performance growth and obvious advantages in germplasm resources, as well as Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) with leading advantages in transgenic R & D and variety layout, and pay attention to Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) .
2. Breeding industry chain: 1) pig breeding: after the pig price rebounds or stabilizes, pay attention to the cost leading enterprises with reasonable valuation. Since the end of November, pig prices have rebounded slightly for two consecutive weeks. According to statistics, As of last weekend On December 10, the average price of live pigs in 22 provinces and cities across the country was 17.42 yuan / kg, down 2.52% on a week-on-week basis, 3% lower than the high at the end of November. On the supply side, judging from the situation of newborn piglets in the early stage, it is expected that the slaughter volume of live pigs will continue to increase on a month-on-month basis in December and January next year. On the demand side, with the double festival approaching, bacon production will enter the peak, and family and catering consumption will increase, so it is expected that the demand for pork will continue to increase in the same period rise. Against the background of both supply and demand, we expect pig prices to stabilize before the festival. At present, the industrial capacity level is higher than the equilibrium ownership, and there is still room for de industrialization. Overall, the pig breeding industry is on the eve of the new cycle. In terms of valuation, at present, the market value of most pig enterprises is lower than the historical average and has a certain margin of safety. Therefore, they are optimistic about the rating of the sector, and individual stocks are mainly recommended Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) and Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) . 2) Dynamic insurance: on the eve of the new cycle, the prosperity of pig vaccine was under short-term pressure, but the valuation of the plate was at the bottom, giving a good rating. Individual stocks mainly recommend Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) with reasonable valuation and significant growth.
3、 Industry data
Pigs: in the 49th week, the average ex factory price of pigs in 22 provinces and cities was 17.42 yuan / kg, down 0.45 yuan / kg from last week; The average profit of self breeding heads in the main pig producing areas in China is 131.31 yuan. By the end of October 2021, the number of fertile sows in China had increased by 6.6% year-on-year; Broiler: in the 49th week, the price of white feather broiler in Yantai, Shandong Province was 3.88 yuan / kg, down 0.1 yuan / kg from last week; In the 49th week, the single feather profit of broiler breeding was 0.14 yuan; Feed: according to the statistics of Boya Hexun, in the 49th week, the average price of broiler feed was 3.8 yuan / kg, up 0.03 yuan / kg from last week; The price of fattening pig feed was 3.61 yuan / kg, up 0.02 yuan / kg from last week;
Aquatic products: in the 49th week, the sea cucumber in Shandong Weihai bulk wholesale market was 200 yuan / kg, unchanged month on week; The price of scallops was 12 yuan / kg, unchanged from last week; Shrimp price was 360 yuan / kg, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; Abalone price was 100 yuan / kg, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; Sugar, cotton, corn, soybean meal, wheat and rice: in the 49th week, the spot price of Nanning white sugar was 5758 yuan / ton, down 33 yuan / ton from last week; In the 49th week, the price of 328 grade cotton in China was 21945 yuan / ton, down 348 yuan / ton from last week; The average purchase price of corn in China was 2647 yuan / ton, down 9 yuan / ton from last week; The average spot price of soybean meal in China was 3473 yuan / ton, up 33 yuan / ton from last week; The average spot price of wheat in China was 2834 yuan / ton, down 4 / ton from last week; The average price of Japonica Rice in China was 2720 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week;
4、 Risk tips
The price changes of raw materials such as sudden epidemic diseases, livestock and poultry, aquatic products and corn were less than expected
