Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: in January, the automobile continues to warm up and replenish the warehouse, and pays attention to the improvement of the joint venture
In November, China's automobile production and sales were 2.585 million and 2.522 million respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.3% and 9.1% respectively due to the high base, a month on month increase of 10.9% and 8.1% respectively, and the production and marketing end continued to improve month on month. From January to November, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 23.172 million and 23.489 million respectively. At present, we are optimistic about the improvement expectation of joint venture brands. We suggest paying attention to the investment opportunities of automobile enterprises with high proportion of joint venture brands and parts companies in the industrial chain.
Passenger cars: in November, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.231 million and 2.192 million respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% and 4.7% respectively, and a month on month increase of 12.2% and 9.2% respectively. The recovery momentum continued. Compared with 19 years, production and sales increased by 3% and 6.5% year-on-year. According to the data of the passenger Association, the production of joint venture brands that were more dragged down by the lack of core in the early stage increased by 17% month on month and that of luxury brands increased by 20%. It is suggested to pay attention to the driving effect of their recovery on the industrial chain companies.
Commercial vehicles: in November, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 353000 and 330000 respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% and 30.3% respectively, and a month on month increase of 3.2% and 1.1% respectively, with continuous positive growth. Affected by the switching of emission standards, trucks have a large decline, and are still suppressed by weak demand. The recent recovery of infrastructure real estate may have a certain stimulating effect. At the same time, it is suggested to closely track the inflection point that may be brought about by the increase of the share of national six parts after the inventory of national five is cleared.
New energy vehicles: in November, 457000 and 450000 new energy vehicles were produced and sold respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times respectively, and a month-on-month increase of 15.1% and 17.5% respectively. From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 3.023 million and 2.99 million respectively. In that month, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 17.8%, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.5%, which continued to maintain high growth. The annual production and sales are expected to exceed 3.4 million.
Market review:
As of the closing on December 10, the auto sector fell 0.8%, the CSI 300 index rose 3.1%, and the growth of the auto sector lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 3.9 percentage points.
From the sector ranking, the auto industry ranked 25th among the 28 sectors of Shenwan last week. Up 23% year to date, ranking 7th among the 28 sectors of Shenwan.
The weekly increases and decreases of sub sectors were: passenger cars (+ 0.4%), commercial trucks (- 2.1%), commercial buses (- 2.5%), auto parts (- 1.4%), and auto services (- 1.5%).
The year to date growth and decline of sub sectors are: passenger cars (+ 36.9%), commercial trucks (- 6.6%), commercial buses (- 31%), auto parts (+ 20.5%), and auto services (+ 11.3%).
Top five gainers and Losers: Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co.Ltd(002265) , Guangdong Dcenti Auto-Parts Stock Limited Company(603335) , St Tianyan, Zhejiang Yueling Co.Ltd(002725) , Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) .
The top five in terms of rise and fall: Changchun Faway Automobile Components Co.Ltd(600742) , Nanjng Yueboo Power System Co.Ltd(300742) , Ningbo Heli Technology Co.Ltd(603917) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Fuxin Dare Automotive Parts Co.Ltd(300473) .
Investment strategy and key recommendations this week:
In the automotive sector in the 21st year, we should pay more attention to the companies that determine the growth of profits. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the problem of core shortage and the opportunities for vehicle and traditional parts enterprises in the improvement stage. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to: competitive Vehicle Enterprises: Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, Byd Company Limited(002594) ; High quality enterprises in the parts sector: Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) ; Technical service enterprises that are not significantly affected by production and marketing fluctuations and have strong growth certainty: China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) ; As well as the opportunities brought by the release of pre suppressed demand with the gradual control of the epidemic situation and the improvement of overseas vaccination rate, such as Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) in passenger transport, Jinlong bus, etc.
Recommended portfolio this week: Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) 20%, yingheng Technology (Hong Kong stock) 20%, Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) 20%, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) 20% and Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) 20%.
Risk tip: the car sales volume is lower than expected; The implementation of stimulus policies for the automobile industry was less than expected; The risk of intensified market competition; Risk of shortage of key raw materials such as chips and rising cost of raw materials; The epidemic control was less than expected.
