On Friday, the average selling price of three yuan pigs abroad was 17.12 yuan / kg, down 4.04% from last Friday. On Friday, the average price of Sanyuan piglets outside 15kg was 28.23 yuan / kg, down 3.88% from last Friday. Pig prices continued to fall this week, with an increase compared with last week. Because the pig price rose sharply from the supply and demand side from October to November, overdrawing the market interests from December to January, the production scale of cured products also decreased significantly, adding to the increase of farmers’ enthusiasm for marketing, the increase of enterprise marketing plans, and the difficulty of slaughtering enterprises in collecting pigs. In addition, the weight of live pigs also gradually recovered, and the speculation about the shortage of large fat pigs was gradually fragile. Recently, the frequency of pig price shocks has increased, and there are few areas above 18 yuan left. Weekly prices have fallen for two consecutive weeks. The Ministry of agriculture and rural areas said on November 30 that at present, the pig production capacity is still relatively high and is expected to be adjusted to a reasonable range in the first quarter of next year. We believe that with the rise of demand in the peak consumption season, Q4 pig price has rebounded strongly, the periodic losses of enterprises are expected to be repaired, and the average price of pigs throughout the year is expected to remain at about 20 yuan / kg. Judging from the perspective of cycle, the inflection point of cycle reversal still needs to pay close attention to the pace of capacity removal in recent months. Near the end of the year, it is recommended to focus on the phased results of cost reduction and efficiency increase of enterprises. It is recommended to focus on the aquaculture head Enterprises with obvious advantages in cost control, and then focus on the second-line and small American Standard enterprises with large expectation and valuation deviation.
Market review:
Among the sub industries of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery this week, the weekly increases and decreases are as follows: planting industry 2.74%, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing 1.80%, feed 1.66%, fishery 1.21%, animal health -0.61%, forestry -0.81%, livestock and poultry breeding -1.66% and comprehensive agriculture – 2.85%. Among the companies in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry this week, the top five companies are: Wanxiang Doneed Co.Ltd(600371) 23.71%, Fujian Tianma Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(603668) 21.81%, Shandong Oriental Ocean Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002086) 20.20%, Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) 18.53%, Tianshui Zhongxing Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(002772) 13.33%; The top five companies are: Yunnan Jinggu Forestry Co.Ltd(600265) – 5.75%, Henan Jindan Lactic Acid Technology Co.Ltd(300829) – 7.53%, Chalkis Health Industry Co.Ltd(000972) – 10.00%, Henan Huaying Agricultural Development Co.Ltd(002321) – 12.79%, and jiawo shares – 13.41%.
Key tracking:
1. Muyuan announced that it plans to carry out commodity futures hedging business
Event: on December 7, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) announced that the company planned to conduct hedging business of commodity futures such as corn, soybean meal and pig. During the business period from January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022, the maximum occupation of required margin shall not exceed RMB 800 million (excluding the physical delivery of the subject matter of futures), which can be recycled within the validity period.
Key recommendations:
[key recommendations] Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) , Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526)
[attention recommended] Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) , Guangdong Vtr Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300381)
Risk tips: price fluctuation risk of livestock and poultry, impact of extreme weather, impact of animal diseases, etc.
