[Zhou’s investment view]:
1) The central working conference set the tone of “double carbon”, further defined the rhythm of double carbon work implementation and energy transformation, and welcomed the development of new energy raceways for communication represented by wind power, new energy vehicles, double carbon data center, power Internet of things, etc; 2) The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles reached a new high in November. Since this year, the cumulative sales volume has reached 2.976 million. We pay attention to the development of new energy & intelligent vehicle industry chain, focusing on cameras, controllers, connectors, modules and other tracks; 3) The global Ethernet switch market recovered in 2021q3, in which the revenue of China’s Ethernet switch increased by 18.1% year-on-year, achieving rapid growth. Meanwhile, aspeed’s revenue in November still maintained a high growth rate of 33.62% year-on-year, Pay attention to the recovery investment opportunities in the cloud computing industry chain (IDC, switch server, optical communication, cloud video, etc.); 4) the two departments issued the guidelines for the construction of national intelligent manufacturing standard system (version 2021) , the standard of intelligent manufacturing is further clarified. At present, the penetration rate of intelligent manufacturing is low and there is much room for improvement in the future. Intelligent manufacturing is the development direction we are firmly optimistic about for a long time; 5) In 2021, Q3 global cellular IOT module and chip shipments increased, 5g module performed well, and the leading Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) , Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) shipments and market share both increased. The module will benefit from the development of the Internet of vehicles and other industries for a long time.
[industry dynamics & investment perspective]:
[new energy for communications] the central working conference set the tone of “double carbon”, and there is great room for the development of new energy for communications. From December 8 to 10, the central economic work conference was held in Beijing. Compared with the 2020 central economic work conference focusing on carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, this year’s conference further clarified the rhythm of double carbon work implementation and energy transformation, and pointed out the need to correctly understand and grasp carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, And the new renewable energy and raw material energy are not included in the total energy consumption control. The outlet for the development of new communication energy: 1) wind power is expected to benefit for a long time, driving the development of submarine cable and marine industry; 2) The development of new energy vehicles is accelerated, and there is a large space for domestic replacement of sub tracks such as connectors, modules and controllers; 3) The energy consumption control of the data center will become the mainstream trend. It is recommended to pay attention to IDC’s high-quality leading enterprises; At the same time, IDC dual carbon has changed into a deterministic trend, and new temperature control air conditioning, liquid cooling and energy storage have gradually sprung up; 4) Power Internet of things has become a deterministic investment direction. Key recommendations: [ Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) ], etc; Focus on: [ Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) ], [ Kehua Data Co.Ltd(002335) ], [ Wenzhou Yihua Connector Co.Ltd(002897) ], [ Willfar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688100) ], [Juhua technology], [ Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) ], [ Guangdong Shenling Environmental Systems Co.Ltd(301018) ], [ Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) ], etc.
[new energy vehicles] in November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high, and the cumulative sales volume has reached 2.976 million since this year. According to the latest data of China Automobile Association, China’s output of new energy vehicles in November was 457000, a month on month increase of 15.1% and a year-on-year increase of 127.8%; The sales volume reached 450000 vehicles, with a month on month increase of 17%, With a year-on-year increase of 121.1%, the cumulative output reached 3.015 million and the sales volume reached 2.976 million. It is expected that the annual production and sales will exceed 3.4 million, and the cumulative sales penetration rate will increase to 12.7%. The rapid development of new energy vehicles is expected to further the development of automotive connectors, controllers, modules and other industries. Key recommendations: modules [ Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) ], [ Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) ], [ Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) ], etc; Focus on: Automobile connectors [ Electric Connector Technology Co.Ltd(300679) ], [ Wenzhou Yihua Connector Co.Ltd(002897) ], [ Zhejiang Yonggui Electric Equipment Co.Ltd(300351) ], [ Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) ], [ Shenzhen Deren Electronic Co.Ltd(002055) ], [ Shenglan Technology Co.Ltd(300843) ], [ Dongguan Dingtong Precision Metal Co.Ltd(688668) ], [ Cwb Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(605005) ], [ Shanghai Laimu Electronics Co.Ltd(603633) ]; Automobile controller [ Shenzhen H&T Intelligent Control Co.Ltd(002402) ], [ Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ], [ Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) ], etc.
[cloud computing] in 2021q3, the global Ethernet switch market has achieved rapid growth, and China’s growth is fast. Aspeed’s revenue in November still maintained a high growth year-on-year. We pay attention to the recovery investment opportunities of the cloud computing industry. The global Ethernet switch market revenue in 2021q3 reached US $8.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, an increase of 9.6% compared with 2019q3, and an increase of 8.6% compared with the first three quarters of 2020. The Ethernet switch Market in many places achieved positive growth, of which China increased by 18.1% year-on-year, with excellent growth performance; In 2021q3, the total revenue of the global enterprise and service provider (SP) router market reached US $3.8 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. Among them, the Chinese market increased by 2.2% year-on-year. The monthly revenue data of aspeed increased significantly to 88.6% and 16.3% year-on-year in October, and remained at a high level of 33.62% year-on-year in November, indicating the gradual recovery of the global cloud industry chain. Key recommendations: [ Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) ], [ Unisplendour Corporation Limited(000938) ][ Zte Corporation(000063) ], [ Beijing Sinnet Technology Co.Ltd(300383) ], etc; Focus on: [ Eoptolink Technology Inc.Ltd(300502) ], [ Zhongji Innolight Co.Ltd(300308) ], etc.
[intelligent manufacturing] the two departments issued the guidelines for the construction of national intelligent manufacturing standard system (version 2021), which further clarified the intelligent manufacturing standard. On December 3, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the National Standardization Management Committee jointly issued the guidelines for the construction of national intelligent manufacturing standard system (version 2021) , put forward a series of objectives of building intelligent manufacturing standards, and further clarify the general development direction of intelligent manufacturing. Under the background of the national “double carbon” strategy, China’s manufacturing industry has entered the stage of “improving quality and efficiency” based on intelligent means and actively promoted by national policies. The intelligent manufacturing market has broad development space and strong performance certainty. Key recommendations: [ Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) ], [ Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) ], [ Unisplendour Corporation Limited(000938) ], [ Zte Corporation(000063) ], [ Guangzhou Sie Consulting Co.Ltd(300687) ], [ Nancal Technology Co.Ltd(603859) ], etc; Focus on: [ Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) ], etc.
[Internet of things] shipments of Q3 global cellular Internet of things modules and chips increased, and 5g modules performed well. According to the latest report of counterpoint, in the third quarter of 2021, the shipments of global cellular Internet of things modules increased by 70% year-on-year, and the overall revenue exceeded US $1.5 billion. The top five module suppliers were Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) , Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) , China Mobile, Sunsea Aiot Technology Co.Ltd(002313) , Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) ; The top three global cellular IOT chip suppliers are Qualcomm, Ziguang zhanrui and Huawei Hisilicon, among which Ziguang zhanrui surpasses Qualcomm in CAT1 field. Key recommendations: [ Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) ], [ Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) ] [ Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) ]; Focus on: [graffiti intelligence], [ Hangzhou Hopechart Iot Technology Co.Ltd(688288) ], [ Willfar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688100) ], etc.
[sector trend]: this week (12.6-12.12), the communication (Shenwan) index fell by 0.41% in the Shenwan industry, ranking fourth in the TMT sector, with a dynamic P / E ratio of 37.85, ranking second in the TMT sector. In terms of net inflow of land stock, the top five inflows include China United Network Communications Limited(600050) (26.45 million shares), Foxconn Industrial Internet Co.Ltd(601138) (24.29 million shares), Beijing Jetsen Technology Co.Ltd(300182) (23.8 million shares), Gci Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002544) (4.59 million shares), Business-Intelligence Of Oriental Nations Corporation Ltd(300166) (4.24 million shares); in terms of net outflow of LST, the top five outflow include Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) (- 26.52 million shares), Wangsu Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300017) (- 24.34 million shares), Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) (- 21.86 million shares), Jiangsu Leike Defense Technology Co.Ltd(002413) (- 8.36 million shares) and Hengtong Optic-Electric Co.Ltd(600487) (- 4.93 million shares).
[highlights of this week] Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) , Unisplendour Corporation Limited(000938) , Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) , Wenzhou Yihua Connector Co.Ltd(002897) , Shenzhen Deren Electronic Co.Ltd(002055) , Guangzhou Sie Consulting Co.Ltd(300687) , Nancal Technology Co.Ltd(603859) , Shenzhen H&T Intelligent Control Co.Ltd(002402) .
[key companies] IDC ( Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , Beijing Sinnet Technology Co.Ltd(300383) , Guangdong Aofei Data Technology Co.Ltd(300738) , Qinhuai data, Wanguo data, Kehua Data Co.Ltd(002335) , Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) ); cloud computing SaaS ( Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) ); equipment manufacturers ( Zte Corporation(000063) , Unisplendour Corporation Limited(000938) , Fujian Star-Net Communication Co.Ltd(002396) ); optical modules ( Eoptolink Technology Inc.Ltd(300502) , Zhongji Innolight Co.Ltd(300308) , Accelink Technologies Co.Ltd(002281) , Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.Ltd(300394) ); cloud communication ( Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) , Yealink Network Technology Co.Ltd(300628) , sound network, Bizconf Telecom Co.Ltd(300578) , Montnets Cloud Technology Group Co.Ltd(002123) Etc.); Industrial Internet / Internet of vehicles / Internet of things ( Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , Foxconn Industrial Internet Co.Ltd(601138) , Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) , Anhui Ronds Science & Technology Incorporated Company(688768) , Dongguan Yiheda Automation Co.Ltd(301029) , Shenzhen Invt Electric Co.Ltd(002334) , Shanghai Weihong Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300508) , Guangzhou Sie Consulting Co.Ltd(300687) , Nengke, Zte Corporation(000063) , Arcsoft Corporation Limited(688088) , Shenzhen H&T Intelligent Control Co.Ltd(002402) , Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) , graffiti intelligence, Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) , Shanghai Huace Navigation Technology Ltd(300627) , Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) , Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) , Hangzhou Hopechart Iot Technology Co.Ltd(688288) , Willfar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688100) ; Electric Connector Technology Co.Ltd(300679) , Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) , Shenzhen Deren Electronic Co.Ltd(002055) , Shenglan Technology Co.Ltd(300843) , Wenzhou Yihua Connector Co.Ltd(002897) , Zhejiang Yonggui Electric Equipment Co.Ltd(300351) , Dongguan Dingtong Precision Metal Co.Ltd(688668) Cwb Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(605005) , Shanghai Laimu Electronics Co.Ltd(603633) etc.); Internet (Tencent holdings, meituan, bilibilibili, etc.); military communication / Satellite Internet ( Guangzhou Haige Communications Group Incorporated Company(002465) , Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) , Jushri Technologies Inc(300762) , China Satellite Communications Co.Ltd(601698) ); operators (China Mobile, China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) , China United Network Communications Limited(600050) ), etc.
Risk tips: 5g construction is not as expected, cloud computing development is not as expected, Sino US trade friction and covid-19 epidemic spread.
