Industry core view:
In 2021, the electronics industry as a whole achieved stable growth amid fluctuations, and the semiconductor sector performed prominently throughout the year. After the cyclical adjustment for more than half a year in 2021, the consumer electronics sector is expected to achieve a reasonable repair of valuation performance driven by Apple's industrial chain and metauniverse VR / ar. The national development strategy of "carbon neutralization" and the upgrading demand of modernization level provide firm support for the rapid development of new energy related industries and intelligent upgrading industries. In 2022, we are relatively optimistic about the three main investment tracks of new energy, consumer electronics and intelligent society, among which the upward trend of photovoltaic power generation, new energy vehicles, apple industrial chain, metauniverse VR / AR, smart home / city and smart vehicles is more obvious.
Key investment points:
1. Resumption of trading in 2021 electronics industry: ① from the perspective of market trend and heavy fund positions, the cyclical development expectation of key industries drives the quarterly performance of the sector. Q1 the continuous suppression of the US consumer electronics industry in China and the expansion of overseas epidemic caused the plate expectation to decline relatively; The acceleration of Q2 panel price rise, the strengthening trend of new energy vehicles, the domestic substitution of semiconductors and the expansion of overseas vaccination drive the expectation to rise from the bottom; After the Q3 industry expected to reach the peak stage, it corrected the horizontal trading with the interference of panel price decline and industrial expectation doubts; Since Q4, with the strong driving of photovoltaic power generation and new energy vehicles on electronic shipments and the enhancement of consumer electronics recovery expectations, the sector has shown a significant upward trend. ② From the perspective of performance development, the performance of semiconductor related sectors still stands out from the electronic segments. The electronics industry ranks eighth in the whole industry with a revenue scale of 2.09 trillion. Among them, the revenue growth of semiconductor materials, discrete devices and passive components is as high as 64.60%, 61.25% and 60.34% respectively. The strong demand of downstream industries has laid an important foundation for the rapid development of such prosperous sectors.
2. The prospect of new energy direction is clear: the rapid growth momentum of photovoltaic power generation is particularly obvious, which is closely related to its safety, accessibility, cost controllability, easy scale and other factors. Q3, the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China, increased by 59.85% year-on-year, bringing sufficient momentum to the performance growth of related products in the electronic industry, such as thin film capacitors, step-up grid connected transformers and conductive silver paste. In terms of new energy vehicles, the rapid growth of power device market is driven by the blowout of sales market, the sharp rise of single vehicle consumption and the improvement of supply situation.
3. Consumer electronics boom recovery: the recent upward valuation performance of fruit chain company, the rise of yuanuniverse VR / AR concept, the decline of epidemic situation at home and abroad next year, and the overall expectation of strengthening all contribute to the recovery of consumer electronics industry. Technology giants lead the rapid growth of VR / AR shipments, and content applications and hardware technologies complement each other. China's electronic precision manufacturing system is relatively complete, and it is optimistic about the business growth potential of relevant electronic equipment and component companies in the explosive growth of VR / AR equipment.
4. The trend of intelligent upgrading of social operation is clear: smart home, smart city, smart car and other fields have shown a rapid growth trend in recent years. After the overall calm of the epidemic in China, the residents' demand for intelligent, convenient, fashionable and scientific life and work experience has become stronger and stronger, which provides an important foundation for the further development of relevant sectors.
5. Risk factors: increased market competition, re expansion of the epidemic, rising geopolitical and military expectations, and the risk of US science and technology suppression.
