Industry core view:
"Stability" is the main theme of China's economic policy for some time to come. As a pillar industry in China, the policy correction of the real estate industry continues, and the valuation of the real estate sector is at a low level. In the long run, the industry will accelerate the liquidation, and high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to benefit. It is recommended to allocate three types of Companies: (1) high-quality property management companies whose valuation repression factors are gradually relieved under the marginal improvement of policies in the real estate industry; (2) high-quality real estate enterprises with high credit such as the background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of "development +".
Key investment points:
Event: from December 8 to 10, 2021, the central economic work conference was held in Beijing. The meeting mentioned that "we should adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, strengthen expectation guidance, explore new development models, adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of indemnificatory housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies."
comment:
Adhere to the general tone of "no speculation in real estate and no speculation in urban areas": the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on December 6 did not mention "no speculation in real estate". This central economic work conference once again stressed that "no speculation in real estate and housing", indicating that the overall direction of policy regulation in the real estate industry has not changed. At the same time, adhere to the implementation of policies in urban areas, fully mobilize the enthusiasm of local reform, and promote a virtuous circle of the industry by implementing policies in urban areas;
Correct policy deviation, guide excessively pessimistic expectations to return to rationality, and explore new development models for the industry: it is first mentioned that "strengthen expectation guidance and explore new development models", and it is again mentioned that "virtuous circle" after the Politburo meeting. It is expected to start from the perspective of meeting the demand for the first set of real estate and improved housing, The whole operation of "land acquisition, construction and sales" in the commercial housing market will be effectively dredged; While the operation of the commercial housing market gradually returns to normal, it is expected to receive greater support in the long-term rental housing market and affordable housing in the future, so as to supplement the formation of a new development model of the real estate industry;
The marginal improvement trend of real estate policy environment will continue: after the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, it will be mentioned that "support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers". At present, the policies on mortgage and real estate enterprise financing have been improved. It is expected that the follow-up policies will continue to support the first home purchase and improved housing needs to ensure the reasonable housing needs of buyers;
The construction of indemnificatory housing will play a supporting role in the field of real estate investment next year: the meeting mentioned "adhering to the simultaneous development of rent and purchase, accelerating the development of long-term rental housing market and promoting the construction of indemnificatory housing". At present, many places have set clear construction objectives of indemnificatory rental housing in the 14th five year plan, It is expected that affordable rental housing will be gradually implemented during the 14th Five Year Plan period, which will become an exploration in building a new development model of the real estate industry and play a certain supporting role in real estate investment.
Risk factors: the industry fundamentals continued to decline rapidly and the real estate credit policy continued to be significantly tightened.
