The "dual control" of energy consumption is transformed into the "dual control" of total carbon emission, and the energy consumption of photovoltaic raw materials is not included in the total energy consumption control
The central economic work conference was held this week. The meeting said that the new renewable energy and energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control, create conditions to realize the transformation from "double control" of energy consumption to "double control" of carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, and prevent simple layer by layer decomposition. For photovoltaic, raw silicon and industrial silicon consume a lot of energy in the production process. Previously, they were forced to stop production for maintenance due to power restriction. At the same time, due to high energy consumption, the new capacity may be limited by energy consumption indicators, resulting in limited production expansion. Especially in the context of tight power consumption this year, the contradiction between limited silicon material capacity and strong downstream new energy installation demand has become more and more prominent. We believe that the meeting said that the material and energy consumption of new energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and the expansion of silicon material production will be more smooth in the future.
The price of silicon material began to fall, and the price reduction of the industrial chain will stimulate downstream demand. It is expected that the off-season will not be light in the first quarter
The price of silicon material fell this week, and the price of dense material decreased by 11 yuan / kg to 258 yuan / kg. At the same time, the prices of silicon wafers, battery wafers and components fell across the board, with the largest decline in silicon wafers, and the decline in battery wafers and components was about 1.5% - 2.0%. The current component price decreases from 0.03 yuan / w to 1.95 yuan / W. We believe that the decline of silicon material price is transmitted to the price reduction of the whole photovoltaic industry chain, which reduces the pressure on the yield of the power station and is good for the downstream installation. In the short term, this year's installed capacity has entered the final stage, the demand is weak, the silicon material price is expected to continue to decline, the price reduction of the industrial chain will stimulate the installed capacity, and it is expected that the off-season will not be light in the first quarter of next year. In the long run, with the release of restrictions on the expansion of silicon production and the continuous release of new production capacity, the shortage of silicon will eventually be alleviated and the downstream demand will break out.
Investment advice
Silicon energy consumption is not included in the total energy consumption control, which is conducive to the expansion of silicon enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , poly GCL energy, etc; The release of silicon production capacity and the decline of price are good for downstream installation. It is recommended to pay attention to Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , etc.
Risk statement
The installed capacity of the industry was less than expected, the epidemic intensified, and the global economy was seriously affected.
