Talk every Monday: the e-cigarette policy is promulgated, and the industry will develop in an orderly manner
Event: Recently, the state has successively promulgated regulatory policies for the e-cigarette industry. On November 26, in order to strengthen the supervision of e-cigarettes and other new tobacco products, the State Council decided to amend the regulations on the implementation of the tobacco monopoly law of the people’s Republic of China as follows: add an article “e-cigarettes and other new tobacco products shall be implemented with reference to the relevant provisions of these Regulations”. On November 30, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration issued a notice on Soliciting Opinions on the national standard for electronic cigarettes (Draft for comments). On December 2, the State Tobacco Monopoly Bureau publicly solicited opinions on the measures for the administration of e-cigarettes (Draft for comments). At the policy briefing on December 2, the person in charge of relevant departments of the State Tobacco Monopoly Bureau pointed out that a certain transition period should be set before the measures for the administration of e-cigarettes and the national standards for e-cigarettes are officially promulgated and implemented.
As the e-cigarette industry is officially incorporated into the supervision, the industry is expected to develop in an orderly manner. According to the data of AI media, the scale of China’s e-cigarette market increased from 550 million yuan to 8.38 billion yuan from 2013 to 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of 72.5%. It is expected that the market scale is expected to reach 10 billion yuan in 2021, and the scale of China’s e-cigarette market continues to increase. The scale of Chinese smokers ranks first in the world, but the penetration rate of e-cigarettes is only 0.6%. At present, the e-cigarette sales market is mainly in the United States, accounting for nearly half of the world. There is still much room for improvement in China’s e-cigarette consumption market. After the e-cigarette industry is included in the supervision, the industry will enter a period of orderly development, which will benefit the leading enterprises.
Market review (December 6-december 10):
Among the Shenwan level industries, the light industry manufacturing industry rose 2.53% this week, ranking 8th among Shenwan’s 31 level-1 industries, outperforming the market. Among the sub sectors, the household goods sector performed better, up 7.01%, and the packaging and printing sector performed worse, down 1.53%; The textile and garment industry rose 0.88% this week, ranking 15th among Shenwan’s 31 primary industries, outperforming the market. Among the sub sectors, the clothing and home textile sector rose 1.67% and the textile manufacturing sector fell 0.64%.
Industry data tracking:
Furniture: the price of wood this week is basically the same as that last week, and the prices of TDI and MDI have increased
Papermaking: according to Zhuo Chuang information, in terms of pulp, on December 10, the market price of coniferous pulp was 5741.96 yuan / ton, down 1.41% from last Friday; The market price of broad-leaved pulp was 4889.77 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.46% over last Friday; The market price of natural color pulp was 6033.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.26% over last Friday; The market price of chemical mechanical pulp was 4216.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.35% over last Friday. In terms of packaging paper, on December 10, the market price of corrugated paper was 4181.25 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.07% over last Friday; The market price of white cardboard was 6099.29 yuan / ton, up 0.65% from last Friday. In terms of cultural printing paper, the price was basically flat compared with last week; In terms of household paper, the market price on December 10 was 6325 yuan / ton, up 0.66% from last week.
Textile and clothing: on December 10, the price of cotton was 21828 yuan / ton, down 0.6% from last week; Yarn and polyester prices also fell.
Investment strategy:
Furniture: Recently, Wu Xiao, director of the rural economy Department of the national development and Reform Commission, said that areas with conditions are encouraged to carry out the renewal of rural household appliances, implement furniture and home decoration subsidies to the countryside and a new round of automobile to the countryside. We will promote the upgrading of durable consumer goods for rural residents. In addition, the real estate market policy tends to be loose recently, and we are optimistic about the leading soft furniture enterprises with high renewal rate [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ].
Papermaking: in terms of household paper, the price of raw materials has rebounded slightly in the past two weeks, some enterprises have adjusted the product price, the long-term investment idea remains unchanged, and are optimistic about the industry leader [ C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) ]; In terms of packaging paper, the price of raw materials this month is lower than that in November. At the same time, affected by the shopping festival outside China, the fourth quarter is the peak season for packaging paper demand, and we are optimistic about the leader of the packaging industry [ Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) ].
E-cigarette: the State Council issued a decision on Amending the regulations for the implementation of the tobacco monopoly law of the people’s Republic of China, which will regulate e-cigarette and other new tobacco products with reference to cigarettes, and the e-cigarette industry will change from disorderly development to orderly expansion. It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of e-cigarette equipment manufacturer [smog international].
Textile and clothing: this week, cotton prices fell after a long-term rise. The release of reserve cotton has achieved initial results, but the price is still high. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the industry.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk and exchange rate fluctuation risk.
