Main points:
Nonferrous Metals lost the market this week, down 0.38%. Among the sub sectors, the top three were aluminum, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and new metal materials III, with an increase of 4.66%, 3.14% and 1.16%. In addition, the top three declines were other rare small metal plates, tungsten plates and non-metallic material plates, with declines of 4.07%, 3.70% and 3.33% respectively.
Base metal
The base metal market is mixed this cycle. Futures market: LME copper, zinc, lead and tin increased by 0.39%, 4.51%, 4.44% and 0.05% over the same period last week; Aluminum and nickel decreased by 0.19% and 1.20% compared with the same period last week. China’s spot market: copper, aluminum, zinc and lead increased by 0.03%, 0.48%, 2.12% and 1.63 respectively; The nickel and tin segment fell 2.29% and 0.17%. Copper: copper price slightly adjusted this week. The supply side is disturbed. Due to the obstruction of logistics and transportation, Las bambas, the world’s ninth largest copper mine, will stop production in mid December. The specific resumption time is unknown. In addition, the epidemic situation in South Africa is frequent, the impact of the mutant strain on the mine development business remains to be observed, and the supply side uncertainty still exists. In terms of demand, the Chinese market has entered the long order trading at the end of the year, and the trading performance in the spot market is relatively cold. In terms of inventory, SHFE copper inventory was about 41400 tons, an increase of 14.59% over the same period last week. Aluminum: aluminum prices continued to fluctuate this week, down from last week. The supply side is still constrained by policy factors such as dual control of energy consumption and environmental protection production restriction. The new and resumed production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is limited, while the frequent production reduction of aluminum plants leads to the continuous decline of electrolytic aluminum operation capacity. On the demand side, after the impact of power rationing was alleviated, the market consumption recovered, and the correction of aluminum price led to the recovery of downstream stock replenishment sentiment. In terms of inventory, the inventory decreased during the week, but the intensity of stock removal was limited. As of Friday, SHFE aluminum inventory was 321400 tons, down 4.05% from the same period last week. China’s tight supply and falling inventory strongly support aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will rebound under the repair of fundamentals. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) .
New energy metals
The price performance of new energy metals this week is relatively differentiated. Cobalt: the price of cobalt rose steadily this week. As of Friday, the spot price of cobalt in the Yangtze River was 482000 yuan / ton, up 5.47% from last week. The overall price of cobalt salt is basically the same as the rise. The price of cobalt sulfate is 94500 yuan / ton and the price of cobalt trioxide is 3500500 yuan / ton. The impact of the new mutant strain on the logistics supply in South Africa continues, the tension of cobalt resource supply remains unabated, and the cobalt price is expected to maintain an upward trend. Lithium: the lithium salt market maintained stable operation this week, and the price of lithium salt increased slightly. As of Friday, the price of lithium carbonate was 205000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 4.33% over last week; The price of lithium hydroxide was 189500 yuan / ton, basically the same as last week. The gas restriction policy in winter heating season in Qinghai has a certain impact on the local Salt Lake production, and the tight supply of lithium salt in China remains unchanged. In terms of demand, at the same time, the high boom of new energy vehicles continued. The production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached a new high from January to November this year, with a cumulative output of more than 3 million. Under the background of the continuous expansion of production and sales of new energy vehicles, the lithium salt market demand continues to improve, and the lithium price is expected to remain high. It is suggested to focus on Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) targets of cobalt industry integration layout; Leading enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Related subjects of salt lake lithium: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) ; Lithium mica related subject matter: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Jiangdian special machine; Related subject matter of spodumene: Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) .
noble metal
This week, precious metals operated weakly as a whole, and prices fell. Gold: as of Friday, Comex gold price was US $1783.1/oz, down 0.04% from last week; Spot gold in London was US $1779.8 per ounce, up 0.69%. Silver: Comex silver price was US $22.22/oz, down 1.55% from last week; The spot silver price in London was US $21.90/ounce, down 2.04%. The United States announced that the number of non-agricultural employment in November was far lower than expected. The recent overseas epidemic still led to panic, which supported gold and silver. At present, inflation continues to be high, the market is expected to increase the scale of U.S. debt reduction and increase interest rates in advance, and the gold price is expected to remain volatile in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) .
Risk statement
The demand is less than expected; The supply of upstream mines exceeded expectations; Risk of policy changes.
