Core recommendation
Key points of basic chemical industry
Core assets ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) );
Titanium dioxide ( Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ), carbon fiber ( Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) ), spandex and polyurethane ( Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) ), food additives ( Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) ), zeolite / OLED ( Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) ), pesticides ( Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) ), compound fertilizer ( Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) ), etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, However, we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (Canadian heavy oil, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risks and further fermentation of trade risks on oil prices. It is recommended to accelerate the construction of polyester industrial chain integration and enter the excellent private refining enterprises ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ) with large-scale refining and C2 / C3 light hydrocarbon cracking layout, and pay attention to Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Weekly industry update
This week, the price index of chemical products fell, the oil price of core raw materials rose, LPG gas rose, LNG gas fell, and coal price was flat; The prices of aromatics and pesticides rose.
This week, China's chemical price index ccpi-0.5%; The price of core raw materials is oil distribution + 7.5%, imported LPG + 12.3%, domestic LNG - 25.8%, and bituminous coal is flat.
On the raw material side, the prices of some aromatics products increased and the prices of C3 products decreased; On the product side, the prices of some pesticide products rose, while the prices of some chlor alkali, polyurethane, rubber, plastics, fluorochemicals, vitamins and amino acids fell.
Oil prices rose this week, OPEC + maintained the right to adjust at any time, and the market's concern about mutant strains gradually weakened.
This week, the settlement price of oil distribution rose from 69.9 to 75.2 US dollars / barrel (up 7.5%), the settlement price of us oil rose from 66.3 to 71.7 US dollars / barrel (up 8.2%); the US commercial crude oil inventory was 433 million barrels (Mom - 0.1%), and the number of US crude oil wells was 471 (mom + 0.9%).
On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, OPEC + temporarily maintains its previous output strategy and reserves the right to adjust at any time. 32 million barrels of SPR in the United States will be in place in mid December, but the market has digested the negative expectations in advance. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, the market's concern about Omicron mutant has gradually weakened recently. On the one hand, Omicron mutant has not caused serious spread, on the other hand, the existing vaccine has also been proved to be effective. In terms of policy, according to Longzhong information, the Fed's QE contraction is still slow, the expectation of interest rate increase is difficult to come in advance, and the narrow fluctuation of the US dollar has a limited impact on oil prices. Geopolitically, according to Longzhong information, although the recent armed conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Hussein in the Middle East have occurred frequently, they have not caused serious consequences and have a slight impact on oil prices.
Natural gas price tracking:
Price tracking: this week (12.2-12.8) natural gas futures in Europe and the United States were mixed. NBP was + 5.01%, TTF was + 3.22%, Hh in North America was - 21.17% and AECO was - 25.71% month on month. In terms of spot, North America was weak, and Europe continued to rise, HH was - 18.68%, AECO in Canada was - 15.58% month on month, and TTF in Europe was + 1.75%. In terms of price difference, the average inbound price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 10775 yuan / ton, month on month - 1.44% , the average sales price of the terminal is 6842 yuan / ton, and the price difference is - 76 yuan / ton (- 10.08%).
Inventory tracking: according to EIA data, as of December 3, the U.S. natural gas inventory was 3505 billion cubic feet, The month on month (MOM) - 59 billion cubic feet (Mom - 1.70%, yoy - 9.20%) is still lower than the five-year average. According to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of December 3, the European natural gas inventory was 2537.2 billion cubic feet, Mom - 59.8 billion cubic feet (Mom - 2.3%, yoy - 23.14%).
China's price: this week, the price of China's main LNG producing areas continued to be weak. As of December 9, the average price of LNG in main producing areas was 5129 yuan / ton, compared with - 22.72% last week and - 4.90% year-on-year; Consumer prices also declined. As of December 9, the average price of major LNG consumer places was about 5684 yuan / ton, up from - 18.94% last week and + 5.20% year-on-year. The quotation of LNG terminal is 6152 yuan / ton, up from - 17.09% last week and + 33.83% year-on-year.
View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
The important products with the highest price increase this week are maleic anhydride + 26%, pyrimethanil + 25%, phosphorus trichloride + 9%, PTA + 6%, dichloromethane + 6%, sucralose + 6%. The important products with the highest price decline this week are trichloroethylene-38%, dimethyl carbonate dmc-17%, npg-16%, r410a-16%, melamine-15%, dimethyl cyclosiloxane (DMC) - 15%, butadiene-14%, acetamiprid-12%, etc.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon - 15%, trichlorosilane - 5%, soda ash (light - 10%, heavy - 9%), vinyl acetate - 2%, EVA (photovoltaic grade) - 4%, etc.
Chemicals related to the lithium battery industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) is the same, phosphoric acid is the same, lithium carbonate (industrial grade + 5%, battery grade + 4%), iron phosphate is the same, industrial monoammonium phosphate (73%) is the same, and lithium hexafluorophosphate is the same.
Downstream shipments were priced, the market supply was tight, and the price of maleic anhydride continued to rise.
Maleic anhydride (East China) rose 25.6% to 15200 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the unsaturated resin was shipped at a high price in the market, and the price of some models of the factory was increased; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current supply of maleic anhydride is tight, and the plant has been shut down due to the epidemic situation. The 100000 ton n-butane maleic anhydride unit of Zhejiang Jiangning chemical industry has been shut down, and the restart time is to be determined, forming a favorable supply side.
Yellow phosphorus supports the cost, and the downstream demand is good, driving the price rise of phosphorus trichloride.
Phosphorus chloride (99%, Jiangsu) rose 9.1% to 12000 yuan / ton on Wednesday. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, yellow phosphorus (Guizhou) rose 13.9% to 41000 yuan / ton this week, and the cost of phosphorus trichloride enterprises increased; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the demand of downstream enterprises is good; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, at present, most enterprises have sufficient orders and tight spot, and the main orders will be issued in the short term.
Crude oil supported the cost, and the supply side narrowed to support the market, pushing up PTA prices.
PTA (East China) rose 6.0% to 4660 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, according to the limited influence of Baichuan Yingfu and Omicron on the market, the Saudi Arabia raised the official price, the crude oil price fluctuated and rose, and the cost side strengthened; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the polyester start-up in the downstream is reduced as a whole, and the terminal market performance is general. At the same time, affected by the epidemic situation in Zhejiang, some polyester factories and logistics transportation are affected, mainly just in need of purchase; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the restart plan of 2.4 million T / a PTA unit of a large factory in East China was postponed. Meanwhile, due to the sudden impact of the epidemic situation within the week, the 3.3 million T / a PTA unit of a mainstream large factory in Ningbo was blocked by shipment logistics, the load was adjusted downward, and the circulation of spot goods began to be tight. At present, PTA involves large maintenance capacity, In addition, there are also equipment storage and maintenance plans of northeast and South China manufacturers, forming a favorable situation.
Cost support still exists, downstream demand picks up, shipments of some manufacturers are blocked, and dichloromethane prices continue to rise.
Dichloromethane (East China) rose 5.6% to 5700 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the price of liquid chlorine at the raw material side is high recently, supporting the cost; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the downstream demand is poor in the early stage and improved in the later stage; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, at present, there is a factory in East China for maintenance. In the later stage, affected by the epidemic, the shipment of some manufacturers is blocked, the supply of goods is tightened, the shipment in South China is OK, and the consumption of inventory is mainly.
Annual order negotiation began, holiday order preparation, and the fluctuation of force majeure at the supply side increased, jointly pushing up the price of sucralose.
On Wednesday, sucralose rose 5.5% to 480000 yuan / ton. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, compared with the beginning of the year, the raw material price is still relatively high and the cost support is still strong; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, most annual orders began to be negotiated in December. In addition, orders for new year's day, Spring Festival and other festivals began to be prepared one after another, so the demand support was relatively strong, forming a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, due to factors such as the Winter Olympic Games and the upgrading of safety and environmental protection inspection in winter, the production of "two high" product sucralose has increased due to force majeure fluctuations, and the market supply is tight. Some enterprises in Hebei and Shandong said that with the approaching of the Spring Festival and the Winter Olympic Games, there is no lack of possibility of shutdown and production reduction in the later stage, In addition, individual enterprises in Fujian said that they had a one month annual maintenance plan before and after the Spring Festival, which was good.
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuation, lower downstream demand than expected, etc.
