Talk every Monday:
There is a significant trend of large-scale and integration of maleic anhydride production capacity:
Maleic anhydride is short for maleic anhydride, also known as maleic anhydride, maleic anhydride, 2,5-furandione, etc. it is the third largest anhydride in the world after phthalic anhydride and acetic anhydride. At present, the main production methods of maleic anhydride in China are benzene oxidation and n-butane oxidation. In recent years, with the improvement of environmental protection requirements, the price of benzene has increased sharply, and new projects have begun to develop to n-butane oxidation unit.
At present, the actual production capacity of maleic anhydride in China is 1.08 million tons, including 730000 tons by n-butane method and 350000 tons by benzene oxidation method. The price of raw benzene has been high for a long time, the cost of maleic anhydride unit of benzene oxidation method is high, and the production capacity of benzene oxidation method is about 400000 tons, which has been shut down for a long time. At present, the production capacity of China's maleic anhydride industry is mainly concentrated in the top five enterprises, which are expected to account for more than 50% of the market in 2021.
With the subsequent production capacity put into operation, the trend of maleic anhydride large-scale and integration is becoming more and more obvious. While expanding the production of maleic anhydride, many enterprises support the downstream deep processing industrial chain, such as BDO.
The degradable plastics industry chain drives the marginal demand for maleic anhydride:
Maleic anhydride has a wide range of downstream applications. It is mainly used to produce unsaturated polyester resin UPR. It is also an organic chemical raw material for the production of ink additives, papermaking additives, plasticizers, tartaric acid, fumaric acid, tetrahydrofuran (THF), etc.
The industrial production processes of BDO mainly include alkyne aldehyde method, propylene alcohol method and maleic anhydride method. Among them, alkyne aldehyde method is the traditional method to produce BDO, accounting for 91.13% of China's total effective capacity. The maleic anhydride BDO process is relatively mature, and the process itself has the advantages of relatively less investment, less three wastes discharge and low requirements for equipment materials.
Degradable plastics drive the growth of BDO demand. If all the planned PBAT projects are put into operation, the demand consumption of BDO market will be greatly increased, and the corresponding demand increment of 2.1 million tons of BDO will be brought. The new capacity of BDO alkyne aldehyde process is limited, and there is an estimated supply gap of 1.2 million tons. If it is supplemented by maleic anhydride process, the demand for maleic anhydride will be about 1.4 million tons.
It is suggested to pay attention to the listed companies with large capacity of maleic anhydride in China and supporting upstream raw materials or downstream products: Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical Co.Ltd(002408) , Hunan Yussen Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002986) , Zhejiang Communications Technology Co.Ltd(002061) .
Market review:
Sector performance: CITIC's primary petroleum and petrochemical index rose or fell by + 0.94% this week, ranking 12th among 30 industry indexes. This week, the Shanghai index rose or fell by + 1.63%, and the CITIC primary petroleum and petrochemical index was - 0.69% relative to the Shanghai index. The engineering services sub segment dragged down the growth of the petroleum and petrochemical sector, with oil exploitation (+ 2.41%), oil sales and storage (+ 1.87%), oilfield services (+ 0.87%), other petrochemical (+ 0.77%), oil refining (- 0.40%) and engineering services (- 0.59%).
Rise and fall of individual stocks: this week, the petroleum and petrochemical sector led the rise of individual stocks, including Yueyang Xingchang Petro-Chemical Co.Ltd(000819) (+ 22.69%), Guangdong Modern High-Tech Fiber Co.Ltd(300876) (+ 10.63%), Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) (+ 9.79%), Qingdao Copton Technology Company Limited(603798) (+ 9.18%), Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) (+ 5.19%); the leading decline of individual stocks included Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) (- 12.87%), Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited(000968) (- 10.74%), Hunan Yussen Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002986) (- 7.71%), Shandong Polymer Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002476) (- 6.68%), Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) (- 5.59%).
Risk tip: policy risk; Geopolitics exacerbates risks; Risk of sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and continuous deterioration of global covid-19 epidemic;
