One week market review
This week, the Shenwan real estate index rose 2.29%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 3.14%, and the relative income was – 0.86%. The performance of the sector was weaker than the market.
Industry fundamentals
This week (12.03-12.09), a total of 62803 first-hand houses were sold in 58 key cities tracked by West China real estate group, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 23.7% and a month on month growth rate of – 11.9%; The total transaction area was 5.954 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 27.2% and a month on month growth rate of – 13.4%.
This week (12.03-12.09), a total of 14386 second-hand houses were sold in 16 key cities tracked by West China real estate group, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 26.4% and a month on month growth rate of 5.4%; The total transaction area was 1391000 square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 32.5% and a month on month growth rate of 10%.
This week (12.03-12.09), the inventory area of commercial housing in 17 key cities tracked by West China real estate group was 197664000 square meters, with a month on month growth rate of 0.1% and a decontamination cycle of 78.9 weeks.
This week (November 29-December 05), 12.947 million square meters of land were supplied, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 83.2%; the average supply price was 1613 yuan / square meter, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 30.3%. The land traded was 16.106 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 70.2%.
This week (December 03-december 09), real estate enterprises issued a total of 13.05 billion yuan of credit bonds, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1% and a month on month growth rate of 202.1%. Real estate collective trusts issued a total of 7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 47.9% and a month on month growth rate of 20.7%.
Investment advice
This week, on December 3, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission pointed out that according to different local conditions, we should focus on meeting the mortgage needs of the first house and improved housing, reasonably issue real estate development loans and M & A loans, increase support for affordable rental housing, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry and the market. The central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10. The meeting required that we should adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, strengthen expected guidance, explore new development models, adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of indemnificatory housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies. On December 6, Taiyuan housing provident fund management center issued the notice on improving housing provident fund loan guarantee. In the future, Taiyuan developers will provide provident fund loan guarantee for house buyers and no longer charge guarantee deposit.
At present, the valuation of the real estate sector is at a low level, with strong performance certainty and high dividends. We mainly recommend Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Xuhui holding group, country garden, Baolong real estate and country garden services in property management sector, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Xincheng Yue services, Xuhui Yongsheng services, New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) and Nacity Property Service Group Co.Ltd(603506) . Relevant beneficiary objects include Longhu group, China Jinmao, poly property, green city services, etc.
Risk statement
Sales were lower than expected, and the real estate regulation policy was tightened.
