1. New energy vehicles
In mid November, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles exceeded 400000
We believe that: 1) the demand is good and the peak sales season is superimposed. The monthly sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile again exceeds the expectation. The production and sales volume in November exceeded 450000, continuously refreshing the monthly historical record. The prosperity of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry has remained high, driving the expansion of demand in the industrial chain. 2) From a technical point of view, from January to November 2021, the installed capacity of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate batteries in China accounted for 49.3% and 50.5% respectively. It is expected that there will be a parallel development trend in the medium and long term, and the applicable fields will continue to be clear. With the improvement of battery performance requirements, technical iteration is expected to be realized in positive and negative materials, lithium salts, conductive agents and other links. 3) From the perspective of supply and demand, under the trend of continuous expansion of the sales volume of new energy vehicles, it is expected that the multi link supply in the middle and upper reaches will be tight, and the leading enterprises are expected to achieve both volume and profit.
Core view:
We believe that with the continuous improvement of sales structure and quality of new energy vehicles and the continuous introduction of high-quality new models, supply will drive demand change, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to accelerate, and the sales volume is expected to achieve rapid growth. Optimistic:
1) Leading high growth and high certainty opportunities, the core supply chain of Tesla, Volkswagen MEB platform, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG chemistry, new forces, Hongguang miniev and other models with best-selling potential; 2) Subdivide the leading track and have significant technology / cost moat advantages in the industry competition; 3) Cathode materials, lithium salt additives, conductive agents and other links that drive technological innovation and product iteration; 4) The demand for high nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased due to the development of high-end + economic polarization, and the pattern of ternary cathode materials has been continuously optimized under the trend of high nickel; 5) The growth of sales volume drives the increase of demand. It is expected that the diaphragm, copper foil Lithium hexafluorophosphate and negative electrode materials (graphitization); 6) the accelerated production capacity layout is expected to significantly benefit the relevant targets of the rapid growth of industry demand; 7) the second-line targets that benefit the growth of the industry and the continuous improvement of their competitiveness are expected to expand market share; 8) energy storage, two wheeled vehicles and other segments with structural opportunities; and the continuous improvement of charging and replacement facilities.
Beneficiary objects: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co.Ltd(300953) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) , etc.
2. New energy
The assessment of total energy consumption control continued to improve
We believe that the “new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption are not included in the total energy consumption control” mentioned in this meeting has further refined the assessment method of total energy consumption, stripped the assessment of renewable energy and raw material energy consumption from the assessment of total energy consumption control, and the use and spatial planning of traditional energy will be more scientific and reasonable in the subsequent energy planning; “Create conditions to realize the transformation from” double control “of energy consumption to” double control “of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible”. By adopting the method of “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity, the energy structure will be improved more reasonably, which is conducive to steadily realizing the goals of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization”.
Core view:
(1) Photovoltaic
In the short term, the downward cost price of each link of the industrial chain will stimulate the willingness of downstream installation; With the gradual implementation of superimposed large-scale scenery base projects and distributed photovoltaic projects throughout the county, the photovoltaic landscape is expected to continue to rise in the future.
In the medium and long term, “carbon peak”, “carbon neutralization” and the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% / 25% in 2025 / 2030. The goal is clear. New energy such as photovoltaic will play an important role in energy transformation and carbon emission reduction in the future.
Pay attention to the supply-demand relationship under market changes and structural opportunities under technological changes, such as inverter, photovoltaic adhesive film, photovoltaic glass, vertically integrated manufacturers, distributed photovoltaic, consumables and equipment links, photovoltaic support, etc.
Beneficiary objects: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , etc.
(2) Wind power
In the short term, the trend of large-scale fan is significant, and the overall cost is expected to decline; With the continuous promotion of large-scale landscape base projects and the acceleration of offshore wind power cost reduction, the wind power landscape is expected to be improved. In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”, and we continue to be optimistic about the installed demand and development space of the wind power industry.
Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the following links: 1) the wind power landscape continues to rise, and look forward to the opportunities of domestic components under the trend of large-scale and pattern change, such as tower, main shaft, casting, blade and so on; 2) Optimistic about the profit recovery link under the price adjustment of raw materials;
3) Optimistic about the domestic replacement of precision parts such as spindle bearings; 4) Be optimistic about the opportunities under the change of whole machine link pattern and technology change; 5) The cost of offshore wind power continues to drop, and the demand is expected to continue to increase. We are optimistic about marine products, submarine cables and other related links.
Beneficiary objects: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , etc.
(3) Energy storage
In 2025, the target of energy storage installed capacity, market position and business model have been clarified, relevant national and local policies have been further improved, and energy storage will accelerate with renewable energy; With the application of new derived ecosystems such as superimposed distributed power stations, charging piles and microgrids, energy storage on the generation side, grid side and user side will meet new application requirements. We are optimistic about the three main lines of lithium battery, inverter and energy storage system integration under the development opportunity of energy storage
Beneficiary objects: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , etc.
Risk statement
The development of new energy vehicle industry does not meet expectations; The improvement of new energy installation and power limitation did not meet expectations; Risk of sharp decline in product price; The risk of epidemic development exceeded expectations.
