Investment advice
On board connector: the demand for high-voltage connector benefits from the electric drive, the industry CAGR exceeds 40% and the industry localization rate is 25% in the next five years, the demand for high-speed connector benefits from the intelligent drive, the industry CAGR exceeds 40% and the industry localization rate is 10% in the next five years, and the demand for low-voltage connector remains unchanged and the localization rate is 10%. Thanks to the iteration of the competition pattern of vehicle manufacturers, automobile connector related enterprises have ushered in historic opportunities. Long term optimistic about Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) with both performance flexibility and certainty (vehicle high-voltage business revenue accounts for 75%) and high-speed connector leader Electric Connector Technology Co.Ltd(300679) (vehicle high-speed business revenue accounts for 10%). In the short term, it is recommended to pay active attention to Zhejiang Yonggui Electric Equipment Co.Ltd(300351) (vehicle high-voltage business revenue accounts for 25%, China's first high-power liquid cooling charging gun mass production enterprise).
On board optics: intelligent driving is in the ascendant, and on-board optics continues to upgrade. In 2020, there will be only 2 cameras on a single vehicle in the world, and the number of cameras on new force models will generally reach 8 ~ 13, and the industry CAGR will reach 40% in the next five years. Sun Yu optical technology, the leading optical company, has long been optimistic (the revenue of vehicle mounted optics accounts for 8% and the global market share of vehicle mounted lens exceeds 30%), and it is recommended to pay active attention to Xiamen Leading Optics Co.Ltd(605118) (the revenue of vehicle mounted optics accounts for 10% and provide complete vehicle lens products for new power brands, including look around lens, ADAS front view lens, etc.).
Industry comments
In mid November, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached a new high, and the penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles reached 37%. 1) According to the data of the passenger Federation, in November, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 378000, with an increase of 122% and a penetration rate of 21%. From January to November, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2.51 million, with an increase of 178% and a penetration rate of 13.9%. Among them, the penetration rate of A00 vehicles is 99%, and that of class a vehicles is 7%. 2) From the perspective of competition pattern, Byd Company Limited(002594) cars are unparalleled, with a sales volume of 90000 units and a market share of 24%, Followed by SAIC GM Wuling (sales volume of 40000 units, market share of 12%) and Tesla (the sales volume was 30000 units, accounting for 8% of the market), and the sales volume of great wall, Xiaopeng, GAC, Chery, ideal, Geely, SAIC, Weilai and Hezhong exceeded 10000. From the perspective of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of terminal vehicle enterprises, the penetration rate of independent brands was 37%, that of luxury vehicles was 19%, and that of joint venture brands was only 4%. 4) the penetration of electric and intelligent vehicles was accelerated, and independent brand vehicles were considered With a shorter launch cycle, we are more optimistic about Chinese supply chain enterprises with better R & D speed, response speed and service ability. Considering the long fixed-point cycle of models, it is recommended to pay attention to the companies with high income of Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla and new forces among downstream customers.
Affected by the lack of core, the shipment of Shunyu optical vehicle lens continued to decline. In November, China's automobile output was 2.59 million, with a year-on-year increase of - 9%. In November, Shunyu optical technology's vehicle lens shipment was 5kk, with a year-on-year increase of - 25%. From January to November, the vehicle lens shipment was 63kk, with a year-on-year increase of 25%, It is lower than the company's annual guidelines (30% ~ 35%). The growth rate of the company's on-board lens has gradually slowed down since June, mainly due to the high base last year and the poor growth rate of vehicle shipment due to the lack of core. It is expected that with the alleviation of the lack of core and the acceleration of vehicle intelligence, the shipment of on-board lens will resume growth in H1 next year.
Market Review
Vehicle connector: fell 5.14% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.9pct. The top two increases were Wenzhou Yihua Connector Co.Ltd(002897) (14%) and Shenzhen Deren Electronic Co.Ltd(002055) (7%).
Vehicle optics: fell 0.96% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.72 PCT. Among them, the top two were Union Optech Co.Ltd(300691) (13%) and Shunyu optical technology (7%).
Risk tip: electrification and intelligence are not as expected, industry competition intensifies, and technology iteration risks.
