Investment summary:
Market review:
As of the closing on December 10, the coal mining sector fell 2.15% this week, the CSI 300 index rose 3.14%, and the rise of the coal mining sector lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 5.29%. In terms of sector ranking, the weekly growth rate of the coal industry ranks 30th among Shenwan 31 sectors, with an increase of 38.08% year to date, ranking 3rd among Shenwan 31 sectors.
Talk every Monday:
The economic conference focuses on coal and pays attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal: the central economic work conference held this week emphasizes the importance of stability and seeking progress in stability. The conference proposed that the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy, and pay attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal based on the basic national conditions of coal, New renewable energy and raw material energy are not included in the total energy consumption control; This policy defines the coal industry more clearly and reverses the repression of the previous double carbon policy on the coal sector to a certain extent. On the one hand, the dominant position of coal in energy has been affirmed. Under the background of annual growth of energy demand, it is still difficult for coal as a basic traditional energy to exit quickly; On the other hand, the coal used in coal chemical industry and renewable energy is not included in the total amount control, which helps to reduce the coal consumption restrictions and costs of these two plates, and is conducive to the reasonable growth of non power demand for coal; Combined with the adjustment opinions of the national development and Reform Commission on the coal price of Changxie in the early stage, the industry is expected to usher in a continuous value revaluation; Recently, the enthusiasm for replenishment of coal downstream has increased, and the coal inventory at the port has dropped significantly. As of December 10, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 4.87 million tons, down 8.11% month on month; The price of power coal runs smoothly. The coal price at Qinhuangdao port (q5500) is the same as last week. With the cooling in many places across the country, the daily consumption of power plants rises seasonally. At the same time, the inventory of power plants exceeds the same period last year, and the supply and demand situation tends to be stable. It is expected that with the promotion of the reform of coal pricing mechanism, the coal price will gradually enter a stable range;
The demand for double coke is still weak and the price is stable: according to the data of China Iron and Steel Association, the daily output of pig iron of key statistical enterprises in November was 1.5985 million tons, a month on month decrease of 2.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.56%; This week, the national blast furnace operating rate fell again, of which the operating rate in Tangshan decreased by 6.35pct to 39.68% month on month. Many places in the North issued pollution weather warnings, the high maintenance status of steel mills was maintained, the drop of hot metal production suppressed the demand for coke, and the coke inventory of steel mills continued to increase. At present, the coke price remained stable after eight rounds of increase and decrease; In terms of coking coal, the place of origin actively produces and ensures supply. After the price of coking coal falls, the profits of coking enterprises gradually rise, and the operation of coking plants picks up. It is worth noting that the weekly apparent consumption of steel has recovered for five consecutive weeks, the profits of steel plants have improved significantly, and the subsequent suppression of coke prices is expected to be relieved; Under the influence of peak shifting production in the heating season, limited production in the Winter Olympic Games and air pollution, the limited production of blast furnace leads to the weak demand for coal coke as a whole. However, the profits of the industrial chain have rebounded as a whole recently, and the space for the decline of coal coke price is limited;
Market impact: the policy is expected to improve again, and the benchmark price of the long-term association is higher than expected, which may drive the revaluation of the industry value; Subject to the continuous downturn of pig iron production, the demand for coal and coke may continue to decline, but the space for price decline is limited;
Investment strategy: focus on Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) benefiting from the central rise of coal price of Changxie, abundant cash flow and high dividend rate, and pay long-term attention to Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) benefiting from the increase of coking coal price and the deepening of national reform.
Risk tip: the policy strength exceeds the expectation, the demand is less than the expectation, and the power policy changes.
