Talk every Monday: the warm wind blows frequently, and the expectation of loose policy is getting stronger and stronger
Event: several important meetings were held, the statements related to real estate were relatively mild, and the wind direction of industrial policies further warmed up. Bank loans and Chinese bond financing at the financing end of the industry have bottomed out and rebounded, while trust and overseas bonds remain low; The sales market at the operating end further declined in November, and more policy care is still needed to stabilize market expectations in the future. On the whole, there are two logic of the industry bottom line. One is that it does not trigger systemic risks, and the other is that it should not cause too much negative impact on economic development. At a time when these two bottom lines are still being tested, we believe that policy care needs to continue to exist, because if the measures implemented by the city can not effectively alleviate the industry fatigue, there will be opportunities for further relaxation of policies at the industry level in the future.
The wind direction of the industry is “stable” first, taking into account the local adjustment of urban construction policies, the setting tone is mild, and the meaning of supporting the industry is strong. “Healthy development and virtuous cycle” has been mentioned many times. Its deep intention is to reverse the unhealthy and non benign phenomena existing in the current industry. We believe that the follow-up policies will continue to focus on the bottom, protect the “soft landing” of the industry and gradually build a healthy and stable industry model.
The construction of indemnificatory housing will be promoted to meet the housing needs of buyers together with commercial housing. On the one hand, it can offset the economic growth pressure caused by the decline in real estate development investment caused by the weakening of commercial housing market, on the other hand, it can meet the initial housing needs of low-income groups to integrate into the city, which will contribute to economic growth from a longer-term dimension, Release potential domestic demand and provide support.
At the financing end, except for overseas bonds, the amount of new loans from other channels rebounded. In November, the amount of real estate loans further rebounded compared with October, and is expected to increase by about 200 billion yuan year-on-year., In November, the trust funds invested in real estate increased by 24.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 70%, a decrease of 4 percentage points, and a month on month increase of 49%. In November, the amount of domestic debt financing increased by 24.1 billion over the previous month, with a month on month increase of 129% and a year-on-year growth rate of 26%. In November, the newly issued amount of domestic foreign debt was US $300 million, a year-on-year decrease of 95%, a decrease of US $1 billion compared with that of the previous month.
The sales side continues to be weak, and the positive impact of standard reduction is limited. According to the data released by the Bureau of statistics, the year-on-year growth rate of sales area in a single month in October was – 23%, 7 percentage points higher than that in the previous month and the next month, which was negative for four consecutive months, and there were obvious signs of market weakness. Referring to the sales list of real estate enterprises of Kerry and other third-party institutions, the actual sales situation in November was further lower than that in October, and the performance of the sales market was still accelerating downward. Historically, the recovery of the sales market often needs the guidance of external policies. At present, the reserve requirement is reduced only once. Under the background of the current thunderstorm of real estate enterprises and the sharp decline of sales, the impact on the industry fundamentals and market expectations is limited.
In the future, we will pay attention to the changes of industrial policies in various cities under the background of urban policy implementation, as well as the latest interest rates of MLF and LPR. Data tracking (November 29-December 5):
New housing market: the transaction area of 30 cities is – 22pct, + 12pct, first tier cities + 3PCT, + 24pct, second tier cities – 13pct, + 21pct, third tier cities – 56pct and – 9pct respectively.
Second hand housing market: the transaction area of second-hand housing in 14 cities was – 32pct year-on-year in a single week and – 6pct year-on-year in total.
Land market: the cumulative construction area of land supply in 100 cities is – 17pct year-on-year, the cumulative construction area of transaction is – 18pct year-on-year, the cumulative transaction amount is – 9pct year-on-year, and the land transaction premium rate is 0.02%.
City Market: the weekly transaction online signing data of cities this week are basically down year-on-year, with Beijing (- 33pct), Shanghai (- 50pct), Guangzhou (- 19pct), Shenzhen (- 23pct), Hangzhou (- 25pct), Wuhan (- 23pct) and Nanjing (- 52pct).
Investment strategy: it is suggested to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) and Longhu group with stable operation and good credit background. Focus on high-quality real estate enterprises Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) and Greentown China under the product-oriented logic.
Risk tip: the sales market accelerated downward, individual real estate enterprises had a storm of debt default, and the policy exceeded the expected regulation.
