Important industry trends this week:
Q3 global cellular Internet of things module shipments increased by 70% year-on-year, and the high prosperity of the industry can be seen at a glance
According to the latest data of counterpoint, the global cellular Internet of things module shipment in 2021q3 increased by 70% year-on-year, of which the 5g module shipment increased by 700% year-on-year. Among them, the top five module manufacturers in 2021q3 are all from China ( Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) accounts for 31.6%, Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) 9.6%, China Mobile 6.2%, Sunsea Aiot Technology Co.Ltd(002313) 6.1%, Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) 5.4%). Due to the transfer of the market to cheaper nb-iot and 4gcat-1 modules in this quarter, the whole cellular Internet of things module ASP (average selling price) decreased by 3% continuously. Meanwhile, ASP of 4gcat4 + and 5g IOT modules increased due to tight supply, but this had little impact on the total shipment.
We believe that the Internet of things cellular module is expected to continue a high boom in the next three years. In particular, it is worth noting that 5g module shipments begin to enter the stage of large-scale volume. The double improvement of future volume + ASP will bring good development opportunities to 5g module shippers with early card position / strong competitiveness.
Under the future development trend of offshore wind power in deep and open seas, the value of submarine cables is expected to increase
Jiangsu Dafeng h8-2 offshore wind power project is the farthest offshore wind power project in China with an offshore distance of 72 kilometers and a water depth of 7.5 ~ 20.9 meters. The 220 kV submarine cable used is 86.6 kilometers long, the longest AC submarine cable used in China, and the outer diameter of the submarine cable section is 263 millimeters. It is also the largest diameter of the offshore wind power project put into operation in China. We believe that more and more sea breeze projects will be developed in the future. On the one hand, the offshore distance of the wind farm is getting farther and farther, and the length of the submarine cable will increase accordingly; On the other hand, the wind turbine / wind farm of far-reaching sea is also a large-scale trend, the voltage level continues to improve, the cross-section of its submarine cable will become larger and larger, and the value of flexible DC submarine cable in far-reaching sea projects will appear in the future.
Investment view this week:
In the short term, it is in the performance vacuum period, focusing on the high boom track and the low / undervalued value + reversal logic target. 5g news, industrial Internet and other industrial applications have entered the stage of accelerated development, with clear growth logic. In the medium and long term, we will continue to pay attention to high boom segments with strong performance certainty. It is recommended to pay attention to: Internet of things / smart car, optical fiber cable / submarine cable, military communication, main equipment, video conference, IDC, operators, etc
1、 5g hardware devices:
1. Main equipment supplier: key recommendation: Zte Corporation(000063) ;
2、 Optical communication: key recommendations: Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) (the ocean and new energy sectors have full potential, and the business cycle of optical fiber and cable is open), Hengtong Optic-Electric Co.Ltd(600487) (sea wind + dual drive of optical fiber and cable), Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.Ltd(300394) (leader of upstream devices), Zhongji Innolight Co.Ltd(300308) (leader of global digital communication module), Eoptolink Technology Inc.Ltd(300502) (Telecommunications + digital communication module), Accelink Technologies Co.Ltd(002281) , Broadex Technologies Co.Ltd(300548) etc. it is recommended to pay attention to: Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited Company(601869) (both the volume and price of optical fiber and cable increase), Advanced Fiber Resources (Zhuhai) Ltd(300620) , Hebei Sinopack Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(003031) , T&S Communications Co.Ltd(300570) , Cig Shanghai Co.Ltd(603083) ;
3. Switch / router (5g + Cloud Computing): attention: Unisplendour Corporation Limited(000938) , Fujian Star-Net Communication Co.Ltd(002396) , Hangzhou Anysoft Information Technology Co.Ltd(300571) ;
2、 5g application end:
1. Internet of things / Internet of vehicles: key recommendations: Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) , Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) Hanwei Electronics Group Corporation(300007) (mechanical combined coverage), Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) , Willfar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688100) (mechanical combined coverage), Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) , Cubic Sensor And Instrument Co.Ltd(688665) (mechanical combined coverage), Queclink Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(300590) ; it is recommended to pay attention to: Huagong Tech Company Limited(000988) (on-board sensing capacity), Guangdong Faith Long Crystal Technology Co.Ltd(300460) (crystal oscillator industry is booming, IOT drives long-term demand), Tkd Science And Technology Co.Ltd(603738) (electronic coverage), Shenzhen Neoway Technology Co.Ltd(688159) , Wenzhou Yihua Connector Co.Ltd(002897) (automobile connector + photovoltaic), Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) , Hangzhou Hopechart Iot Technology Co.Ltd(688288) ；
2. Cloud Computing: key recommendations: Kehua Data Co.Ltd(002335) (power new joint coverage), Runjian Co.Ltd(002929) (leading private communication network management and maintenance, key breakthrough in photovoltaic operation and maintenance), Beijing Sinnet Technology Co.Ltd(300383) . It is recommended to pay attention to: Unisplendour Corporation Limited(000938) , Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Guangdong Aofei Data Technology Co.Ltd(300738) , Beijing Highlander Digital Technology Co.Ltd(300065) (UDC), Shanghai Athub Co.Ltd(603881) ;
3. Online office / video conference: key recommendations: Yealink Network Technology Co.Ltd(300628) (leading UC terminal solution, continuously improving product matrix), Fujian Star-Net Communication Co.Ltd(002396) (cloud office / cloud desktop, video conference), Montnets Cloud Technology Group Co.Ltd(002123) (leading rich media SMS), Bizconf Telecom Co.Ltd(300578) (video conference software and hardware layout), etc;
3、 Operators: at present, the valuation of the three major operators of Hong Kong stocks is low, the business trend is upward, and they continue to pay attention to China Mobile, China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) , China United Network Communications Limited(600050) (Hong Kong stocks).
4、 Military communication & Beidou: communication is a serious short board in the field of national defense informatization. The penetration of ultrashort wave and area width can be improved. It is recommended to pay attention to: Guangzhou Haige Communications Group Incorporated Company(002465) , Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) , Jushri Technologies Inc(300762) , Shanghai Huace Navigation Technology Ltd(300627) .
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic, the progress of 5g industry and commerce are lower than expected, the recommendation speed of downstream applications is lower than expected, and the risk of trade war is uncertain.
